Met Office reveals 'threat of extreme heat' as yellow health warning issued
The Met Office has released a study warning of the increased risk of temperatures reaching 40°C in the UK, as a yellow heat health alert is issued for Oxfordshire.
An early summer heatwave reaching 30°C will hit Oxfordshire from today as the Met Office warns of hotter temperatures to come in a new report.
Meteorologists at the weather office have revealed the increasing likelihood of "extreme temperatures" in Britain, underscoring the need for people and organisations to prepare for more intense heatwaves.
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It comes as a yellow heat health alert has been issued by the UK Health Security Agency from today, Wednesday, June 18, covering the whole of the south of England including Oxfordshire.
Yellow heat health alerts have been issued for the south of England by the UK Health Security Agency (Image: UKHSA) In place until Sunday, June 22, the "medium" alert warns of "significant impacts" across health and social care services including a rise in deaths, particularly among older people and those with health conditions, and an increase in demand for health services.
A sunny forecast for Oxfordshire suggests temperatures today (Wednesday) will reach 27°C by 3pm, soaring to 30°C on Thursday and remaining in the high 20s until after the weekend.
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The early summer heatwave comes as the UK has experienced all top 10 warmest years since the year 2000, with 2022 the warmest year on record.
In July 2022, the UK experienced its first recorded temperature above 40°C, when Coningsby in Lincolnshire reached 40.3°C.
A study from the Met Office called UNSEEN has used a global climate model to create a large set of plausible weather outcomes to assess current risk and predict extremes.
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Dr Gillian Kay, Senior Scientist at the Met Office, and lead author said: "The chance of exceeding 40°C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s.
"Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising. We estimate a 50-50 chance of seeing a 40°C day again in the next 12 years.
A graph from the Met Office shows the increasing chance of temperatures of 40C or more in the UK by year (Image: Met Office) "We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today's climate.'
The study also found the length of heatwaves could be extended under the current climate, increasing risks to health, infrastructure, wildlife and more.
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Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office Science Fellow and co-author of the study, said: 'The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28°C, which is a key heatwave threshold in southeast England.
"Our study finds that in today's climate such conditions could persist for a month or more.
"These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat."
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