Scottish independence support at 58 per cent if Nigel Farage becomes PM
A Norstat survey for The Sunday Times has suggested that the rise of Reform UK and the failings of the Labour government have helped to increase support for Scottish independence.
Data from the poll, which was published Saturday evening, shows the Yes side has opened up an eight-point lead, sitting at 54%, when undecided voters are excluded.
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The poll also showed that if Farage were to enter Downing Street and become prime minister, support for Scottish independence would be at 58%.
It suggests that with Farage leading the UK, it would leave independence campaigners within touching distance of 60% support, which many believe would represent a tipping point, making a refusal to grant a second independence referendum unsustainable.
Norstat survey comes with just days to go before the Holyrood by-election in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse constituency, where Scotland's First Minister John Swinney says the contest is between the SNP and Reform.
Labour appears to be out of the running for the by-election following a disastrous campaign by their candidate, Davy Russell, in a blow to Anas Sarwar's dreams of success at next year's Holyrood elections.
Norstat polling showed more woes for Sarwar and co, with fewer than one in five Scots planning to back Scottish Labour next year, in a devastating reversal of fortunes when the party won 37 seats in Scotland in the 2024 General Election.
A third of Scots, 33%, said they would vote for SNP with their constituency vote, meanwhile 28% said they would back the party on the regional list. Both represent a drop of two points compared with Norstat's polling by The Times three months ago.
However, according to projections by the polling expert John Curtice, a fracturing of the Unionist vote means the SNP remains on course to be comfortably returned as the largest party after next May's elections, with 54 of the devolved parliament's 129 seats.
Labour would be the second largest party with 20 seats, while Reform would have 18, one ahead of the Conservatives, who would have 17.
The Liberal Democrats would return 11 MSPs, up by five, and the Greens 9, a rise of two.
(Image: Colin Mearns)
On the recent polling figures, Curtice said: 'John Swinney is in pole position to remain Scotland's first minister after next year's Holyrood election. But his party is still struggling to recover from its sharp reversal of fortune last year.
'Key to the SNP's lead is the rise of Reform. Nigel Farage's party is now breathing down Labour's neck in the race for second place at Holyrood.'
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