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The Herald Scotland
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
'Arrogant' Sir Keir has killed independence. What can SNP do about it?
Sir Keir Starmer hasn't categorically ruled out another referendum but he doesn't have to. He says no one is raising independence with him as a priority. And that's the SNP's real problem – not a Prime Minister who doesn't want a referendum, but an apathetic population. Scottish voters do not decisively support independence (they remain split around 50/50 on the issue) and are much less enamoured of the SNP than they used to be. Read more Rebecca McQuillan They have many other things on their minds besides the constitution. Those are the real roadblocks to independence, those are the reasons John Swinney has stopped the posturing: there is no voter demand for a referendum and the SNP wouldn't necessarily win one anyway. It would take an earthquake in Scottish politics to push support for independence to the level needed to win a referendum comfortably. Some believe the threat of a Nigel Farage premiership could be that seismic event. The Reform leader becoming PM would certainly register on the Richter scale, or so a poll at the weekend suggested. A Norstat survey for the Sunday Times found that independence support currently sits at 54 per cent once don't knows are removed but that Farage becoming PM would push it up to 58 per cent. But even if Reform are still contenders by 2029 (not a certainty) the Farage effect alone isn't going to bring about an independent Scotland. When even Brexit and three years of Boris Johnson – all of it against Scotland's will – failed to shift the dial decisively on independence then clearly something else has to change. People have to be convinced that life would be better in an independent Scotland. John Swinney knows this. He occasionally talks process – how the Northern Ireland border poll mechanism is an interesting precedent, for instance – but the tactical chat has been conspicuously absent. He recognises what the real challenge is for the SNP and hasn't avoided saying it out loud. Scottish independence will only happen if support for the SNP is 'very high' and if people are persuaded by the 'merits and arguments' for independence, says the First Minister. He wants to hasten the process along, he says, but building voter confidence in independence as a proposition depends heavily on building confidence in the SNP as a government. Can independence recapture the Scottish imagination? (Image: Stewart Attwood)We could summarise as follows: support for the SNP has to recover to its old highs, support for independence needs to be around 60 per cent or higher, and people have to want a referendum as a priority. That's how you force Westminster to concede to a legal referendum and that's how Yes feel confident of winning it. The trouble is, those conditions are hard to achieve – very hard indeed. Firstly, the SNP itself is struggling to regain the support it leached away under Humza Yousaf and the last months of Nicola Sturgeon. NHS waiting lists, violence in schools, drugs deaths, business disaffection, homelessness, the ferries fiasco, arguments over trans rights and a list of other problems have all taken their toll on the Scottish Government's reputation. There's not much sign of voters falling back in love with them. Secondly, support for independence remains volatile and frequently falls below 50 per cent. There's no sign voters are any more convinced about it now than they were five years ago. And thirdly, independence is a long way from being anyone's priority outside of core SNP supporters. Making decisive arguments in favour of independence so that voters believe it is the better option than remaining in the UK has always been extremely tough. Even Brexit, which seemed to prove the SNP's long-held belief that Scotland's current democratic arrangements were unfair, created new challenges by creating the prospect of a hard border between Scotland and the rest of the UK in the event of independence. It was also horribly stressful and unpleasant. Divorces are. People were put right off the idea of referendums where public opinion is finely balanced: a cautionary tale for Scotland if ever there was one. Read more Now the picture has become more complicated still. The global security situation has changed. It is more threatening to Scotland and the UK than it has been in decades and that is not inclining people towards independence. Most people in Scotland favour retaining the UK's nuclear deterrent and 47 per cent believe Scotland is safer within the UK (compared to 35 per cent who don't). At a time of such insecurity, it's hardly surprising there is so little demand for a big all-consuming row about the constitution. Next year we have a Scottish election and that will shift the pieces on the board. If Reform keep up some momentum and send a group of MSPs to Holyrood, they look set to be very much the minority. Still, their presence could potentially change the way voters viewed an independent Scotland – it might no longer look much like a haven from hard-right conservatives. On the other hand, having more Reform MSPs might encourage more people to support the SNP. But the Scottish election, from where we're standing now, doesn't look like it will significantly change the fundamentals that John Swinney himself has set out as the prerequisites for winning an independence referendum. No wonder Keir Starmer sounded so relaxed discussing it. Independence, for the foreseeable, is in the deep freeze. Rebecca McQuillan is a journalist specialising in politics and Scottish affairs. She can be found on Bluesky at @ and on X at @BecMcQ
The National
3 days ago
- Business
- The National
Thank you, Keir Starmer, for telling Scots where our priorities lie
SUPPORT for independence is on the rise. The recent opinion poll by Norstat, published by The Sunday Times, found that 54% of those polled support independence, and that figure was arrived at after the pollster's sample was refracted through the increasingly indefensible methodological practice of weighting by the result of the 2014 independence referendum. With the 7% don't knows discounted, the raw data in the poll shows a stupendous 61.3% for Yes and just 38.7% for No. With more up to date 2025 demographic weighting, the poll would show 57.4% for Yes and the No vote on 42.6%. It seems that we are now at the point where even weighting polls by the outcome of 2014's referendum is not sufficient to turn an underlying Yes majority into a headline result giving No a lead. All that the practice does is to reduce the apparent size of the Yes majority. This is the same poll which reported that 58% of respondents would favour Scottish independence should Nigel Farage become the next UK prime minister. Without the 2014 weighting used by this polling company, that figure would certainly have been well in excess of 60% of Scots in favour of independence. However, Keir Starmer took time out of his busy schedule of avoiding the Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse Holyrood by election to go on BBC Scotland's Good Morning Scotland show to tell the people he refuses to meet face to face that he's not going to allow them to have another independence referendum, not even if the SNP win a majority in next year's Scottish Parliament elections. Asked about the issue of another independence referendum, Starmer said: "Nobody's raising that with me as their first priority." He added: "Certainly, in the discussions I'm having with the First Minister, we're talking about jobs, energy, security and dealing with the cost of living crisis." He continued: "I think it's really important to focus on the priorities that matter most. "We got a big election win last year on the basis that we would stabilise the economy and ensure that on that foundation we built a stronger Scotland in a stronger United Kingdom and that's what I intend to do." Well of course nobody is raising the issue of another independence referendum with Keir Starmer, he carefully insulates himself from anyone in Scotland who is not either a Labour Party member or supporter. If you lock yourself in the cellar and stuff your ears with cotton wool, no one is going to tell you that the house is on fire, but that doesn't mean it's not a priority. Why, thank you so much for telling us what our priorities are, Keir. And there we were labouring under the misapprehension that the whole point of this democracy lark was that the people tell politicians what the priorities are through the medium of the ballot box. Reacting to Starmer's comments, SNP MSP Keith Brown said: 'These comments are not remotely surprising – Keir Starmer has proven that he doesn't care what anyone thinks except Nigel Farage. "He visited Scotland yesterday and couldn't be bothered speaking to voters ahead of Thursday's crucial by-election. Independence is essential to tackling the cost of living, improving the economy and delivering more funding for our NHS." "Not only is Westminster control demonstrably making Scotland poorer – with Brexit and austerity damaging our economy and our living standards – but neighbouring independent countries similar to Scotland are all doing better than the UK. The evidence is staring us in the face. 'Support for independence is rising in Scotland, while support for Labour is collapsing. "We will continue building up a broad base of support for independence – in the election next year people in Scotland will have the chance to deliver their verdict on Westminster's contempt for Scottish democracy.' But it's not really surprising that Keir Starmer doesn't want to listen to the people of Scotland, despite their claims to the contrary, Scotland is and always has been a side-show to British politicians. Starmer and the other anti-independence parties are able to maintain the fiction that independence is not a priority due to polling which, aided by increasingly questionable methodological practices, continues to show a Scotland evenly divided on the independence issue. Yet with the looming threat of a far-right English nationalist party waiting in the wings and the slow march of demographic changes in Scotland, time is running out on this delaying tactic. The time is coming when the issue can no longer be ignored, and it's coming a lot sooner than Starmer might like. Farage doubles down on baseless claim For his part, Nigel Farage continues in the truly remarkable achievement of outdoing Starmer in the lies and duplicity stakes. Farage has doubled down on his baseless claim that the anti-independence newspaper The Herald tipped off the anti-racism protestors who besieged him in Aberdeen and Hamilton and told them his location. Farage has now claimed that The Herald had the "deliberate intention of trying to provoke violence and discomfort." Speaking to LBC on Tuesday, Farage was questioned about why he had hid from the media and protesters. He said: 'What a load of cobblers. I had 18 journalists in a room yesterday in Aberdeen and took questions from every single one of them. Keir Starmer would have taken three, Kemi would have taken two. No, absolute nonsense. 'What we did have yesterday, though, was a newspaper called The Herald in Scotland informing protest groups like Antifa where I was going to be with a deliberate intention of trying to provoke violence and discomfort. 'And so, yeah, did we give The Herald and others the slip and go and do campaigning in the streets, meeting normal people without a bunch of thugs with masks on? Yes."
The National
3 days ago
- Business
- The National
Kate Forbes responds to Keir Starmer ruling out independence vote
Starmer dismissed the idea of an independence vote if the SNP get a majority at next year's Holyrood elections when he spoke to the BBC's Good Morning Scotland programme. He claimed there was a need for Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom in order to remain safe as he released his defence review. READ MORE: Douglas Ross slapped down by Holyrood Presiding Officer Despite how John Swinney has established his strategy as building "demonstrable support" for independence through Government, Starmer said no one had raised the subject with him 'as their first priority'. It comes after a Norstat poll suggested Scottish independence support was at 54% but would rise further to almost 60% if Farage took power at Westminster. Deputy First Minister Forbes, who was visiting Blantyre on Tuesday as part of campaigning in the Hamilton by-election this week, was asked by The National if it was a political tactic from Starmer to suggest Swinney was not focused on independence. She said: 'It's hardly a surprise that Keir Starmer is repeating what we've heard from Tory prime ministers for years, and the day after we saw an increase in support for independence if Nigel Farage becomes prime minister, it seems a bit rich to be telling the people of Scotland what they are saying when their greatest concern is that the change that was promised by Labour hasn't happened at all, opening the door to Nigel Farage. 'The purpose of the SNP is to deliver a better future for the people of Scotland. 'We are speaking to the people of Scotland, we are engaging directly with them, they are increasingly rejecting the empty politics of Westminster, indicating support for a different and better future. 'I think it's a lot more important John Swinney is speaking to the people of Scotland than anyone else.' The Norstat survey also found that 63% of Scots would back independence if the other option was direct Westminster rule. The question asked, specifically: 'If there were to be a second independence referendum tomorrow and the ONLY options on the ballot paper were full independence or the permanent closure of the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood and a return to direct Westminster rule, how do you think you would vote?' READ MORE: SNP ministers throw out Bannockburn race track development Labour voters during last July's General Election were quite split on the issue – narrowly backing direct rule by 51% to 49%, according to the survey. Forbes also hit out at Farage saying he would scrap the Scottish Parliament's funding mechanism if he were Prime Minister. Asked during a rare appearance in Scotland on Monday about whether he would get rid of the Barnett formula, which is used to fund Holyrood, Farage said the mechanism was 'out of date'. He added: 'What I'd like to see is a Scottish Government that's able to raise a bit more of its own revenue and a Scottish economy that's actually got genuine growth and I don't believe that can happen without this sector [oil and gas] booming.' Farage has also been accused by Swinney of "hating the very idea" of Holyrood. Forbes said: 'The Barnett consequentials is an important route for Scotland to be able to fund public services, and anybody that suggests that they are giving back to Scotland when Scotland pays its fair share in terms of tax, where right now revenues, for example, from one of our key industries, the energy industry, oil and gas, is supporting UK public services, it illustrates the importance of a well-recognised approach to Scotland's public finances.'
The National
3 days ago
- Business
- The National
New poll shows Scots overwhelmingly back independence over direct rule
A Norstat survey, for which the Wings of Scotland blog contributed a question, found that 63% of Scots would back independence if the other option was direct Westminster rule. 37%, meanwhile, said they would back direct rule again. The question asked, specifically: 'If there were to be a second independence referendum tomorrow and the ONLY options on the ballot paper were full independence or the permanent closure of the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood and a return to direct Westminster rule, how do you think you would vote?' READ MORE: Scottish MPs panned over up to £3500-a-month taxpayer-funded London homes Interestingly, Labour voters during last July's General Election are quite split on the issue – narrowly backing direct rule by 51% to 49%, according to the survey. The same Norstat survey, which was initially commissioned for The Sunday Times, found that overall support for Scottish independence is at 54% but would rise even further if Reform UK's leader, Nigel Farage, were to become the next prime minister. Data from the poll, which was published Saturday evening, shows the Yes side has opened up an eight-point lead, sitting at 54%, when undecided voters are excluded. But this would rise to 58% if Farage were to be in power. It comes after the Clacton MP hinted that he would scrap the Scottish Parliament's funding mechanism if he were Prime Minister. Asked during a rare appearance in Scotland on Monday about whether he would get rid of the Barnett formula, which is used to fund Holyrood, Farage said the mechanism was 'out of date'. He added: 'What I'd like to see is a Scottish Government that's able to raise a bit more of its own revenue and a Scottish economy that's actually got genuine growth and I don't believe that can happen without this sector [oil and gas] booming. 'I think, you know, the Barnett formula goes back to the 1970s. Is there an argument it should be looked at again? Of course there is.' Norstat polled 1007 Scottish adults between May 27 and May 30.
The National
4 days ago
- Politics
- The National
The lesson for the SNP as new poll puts independence support at 54%
It's strikingly similar to a string of polls a few years ago which claimed there would be a big boost in independence support, in some cases taking the Yes vote into the high 50s, if Britain voted to leave the EU, or if Boris Johnson became Prime Minister, or if the UK government negotiated a hard Brexit rather than a soft Brexit. All of those three events came to pass, and yet the predicted instant effect on Yes support didn't materialise. The reason is that people are generally bad at answering hypothetical questions accurately, and sometimes think a possible future event will have more of an impact on their own political attitudes than actually proves to be the case. It's far more important, then, that the Norstat poll shows that real independence support in the here-and-now stands at a very handsome 54%, a gain of four percentage points since the previous poll in the series. That may well imply that the increasing danger of Farage grabbing the keys to 10 Downing Street has already shifted some voters into the Yes camp. And it's worth remembering that it's perfectly possible for hypothetical questions in polls to underestimate the impact of future events, as well as to overestimate them. It's unlikely that many people in early 1979 would have guessed the full extent of the transformative effect that Margaret Thatcher's premiership was about to have on support for both devolution and independence over the course of 11 years. If Nigel Farage takes office and starts acting in a way that is fundamentally at odds with Scottish values, as Mrs Thatcher did, or if he tries to abolish or neuter the Scottish Parliament, a sea-change in public opinion could be triggered that might take the Yes vote well beyond the predicted 58% mark. READ MORE: Nigel Farage visit to Aberdeen met by anti-racism protesters There's a much more immediate concern about the impact of Farage and Reform UK on Scottish politics, though. The word from the ground in the Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse by-election is that Reform are performing strongly, that they have a good chance of overtaking Labour to finish second, and that they may even have an outside chance of overtaking the SNP to win outright. Because of that consideration, the SNP leadership will have been far more interested in what the Norstat poll shows about party political voting intentions than in what it shows about independence. The large 15-point gap between the SNP and Reform in Holyrood constituency voting intentions will settle the nerves that had been left jangling by a small series of Scottish subsamples from Britain-wide polls, which misleadingly implied that Reform had more or less drawn level. Nevertheless, there's an ongoing frustration that the SNP hold their lead on only 33% of the vote, rather than something approaching the 54% vote for independence itself. It's well known that the biggest reason Labour were able to win a majority of Scottish seats at last year's Westminster General Election was that Yes support had become decoupled from SNP support, and that a great many people were voting Labour while still supporting independence. READ MORE: Scottish Labour councillor defects to Reform UK But Labour's support has collapsed since then, so if those "lost" independence supporters haven't returned to the SNP fold, where have they gone? The answer, according to the Norstat data tables, is that they are now dispersed between several different parties, mostly Unionist parties. Only 56% of those who would vote Yes in any independence referendum held now would also vote SNP on the Holyrood constituency ballot. Some 12% would vote Labour, 10% would vote Conservative, 9% would vote Green, 7% would vote Reform, and 5% would vote Liberal Democrat. It's hard to escape the conclusion that voters are no longer casting their votes with independence at the forefront of their minds, and that there is consequently an opportunity for the SNP to win many of those people back if they can devise a strategy that stresses the urgency of independence and convincingly ties a vote for the SNP to the prospect of Scotland actually becoming an independent country in the relatively near future.
