Israel-Iran conflict: Did the US strikes succeed? How will Tehran respond?
[Editor's Note: Follow our live blog for real-time updates on the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict.]
The United States' strikes on Sunday on Iranian nuclear sites raised two major questions: how effective were they, and what will Iran do next?
US President Donald Trump said the air raids "totally obliterated" the main nuclear sites, calling them a "spectacular military success".
So far, Tehran has given little away about its response, although Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the United States had "crossed a very big red line".
Stay up to date with the latest news. Follow KT on WhatsApp Channels.
AFP looks at the impact of the attacks and the possible next steps.
What was the effect of the strikes?
The United States targeted Iran's three main nuclear sites including Fordow, a uranium enrichment facility buried 90 metres (about 300 feet) underground.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes "devastated the Iranian nuclear programme".
The extent of the damage has not been confirmed, but there is speculation nuclear material had already been moved away.
Heloise Fayet, a nuclear expert at the Institut Francais des Relations Internationales, said satellite images showing activity around Fordow "suggest enriched uranium stock may therefore have been transferred to sites not monitored by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)".
"We previously had knowledge, albeit imperfect, of the programme thanks to the agency's inspections; now no inspections are possible," she told AFP.
"As for Iran's technical expertise, it cannot be destroyed, knowing that thousands of people have participated in Iran's nuclear programme."
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, called the US action a "high-risk operation that delivers unpredictable outcomes", given the facility was deep underground.
"Trump has been using OSINT (open-source intelligence) accounts to say Fordo is gone while the Iranians claim there is only surface-level destruction."
Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, said destroying Fordo "won't necessarily end Iran's nuclear programme.
"Tehran has produced hundreds of advanced centrifuges in the past few years that are stored in unknown locations," he said.
What is Iran's next move?
According to Krieg, Iran will seek a "calibrated response — loud enough to resonate, but measured enough to contain".
Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitics and security analyst, said its options included attacking US assets, closing the Strait of Hormuz — a vital conduit for the world oil trade — or even attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, which hosts several US military bases.
"None of those are good options that achieve anything — this is mostly about saving face," he posted on X.
"The risks, on the other hand, are great."
However, Horowitz said there were other ways to respond, including a limited retaliation against the US before returning to strikes against Israel and finally negotiating a settlement.
The Iranian government now realises its very existence is at stake, said Renad Mansour, senior research fellow at the Chatham House think-tank, casting it back to the days of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war.
"It's survival mode," he said, predicting "more violence" in the short-term with the prospect of a "managed de-escalation" and eventual negotiations.
Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Iran might allow Trump a "symbolic win" and retaliate against Israeli targets instead.
"This keeps Washington out of the war while intensifying pressure on Tel Aviv. The risk of drawing the US further in would now rest on Trump's next move," he posted on X.
"If Trump continues to strike Iran without new provocation, it looks more like going to war on Israel's behalf. That's politically costly, given domestic opposition to war with Iran."
Meanwhile, Iran could deny knowledge of what happened to its enriched uranium, avoiding IAEA inspections, and later leave the Nuclear Non-Profiferation Treaty.
"Trump may have scored a tactical win, but if Iran plays this smart, they hand him a political grenade," Azizi wrote.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The National
27 minutes ago
- The National
Israel-Iran war could slow Gulf investment inflow in 2025, warns World Bank regional chief
Foreign direct investment in the Gulf could slow in the second half of this year as the war between Iran and Israel dents investor sentiment, the World Bank 's director for the region has said. Investors will probably adopt a wait-and-see approach as the conflict that started with Israel's attacks on Iran's nuclear sites on June 12 worsens, Safaa El-Kogali told The National in Riyadh. 'Even if they've started [investing beforehand], they [foreign investors] might hold off until they see things settling down a bit,' she said on the sidelines of a World Bank seminar on Sunday. De-escalation does not seem likely after President Donald Trump ordered the first-ever direct US military attack on Iranian soil earlier that day. The US attacked three Iran nuclear facilities with six bunker-buster bombs and launched Tomahawk missiles. GCC countries had varied in their ability to attract FDI in 2024. The UAE received Dh167 billion ($45.5 billion) in foreign direct investment last year, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, said in a post on X on Thursday. This represented a 48 per cent increase, he added. The UAE accounted for 37 per cent of the total foreign investment flows in the region, he said. Saudi Arabia's net FDI inflows in 2024 decreased as a share of GDP, amounting to 1.1 per cent compared to 2.1 per cent in 2023, according to a recent report by the World Bank. Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar saw FDI fall by 7.3 per cent, 2.3 per cent and 0.5 per cent of GDP respectively from 2023 to 2024, it added. Oman saw FDI increase by 2.4 per cent of GDP. This was due to 'prudent fiscal management and diversification efforts' the report said. What is the impact? No one can accurately measure the impact of the escalation on the regional economies, but peace is necessary for economic security and the implications will be broad, Ms El-Kogali said. 'Increasing costs of commodities, of shipments – this will impact a number of industries that import raw material', she said. The conflict will add to inflation, which will affect investors and consumers alike, she added. 'Whenever there is uncertainty … in any region, tourists usually decide not to go,' she said. Travel and tourism made up about 11.4 per cent of the region's gross domestic product in 2024, according to the latest data from the Statistical Centre for the Co-operation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf. Oil prices, which have surged since the beginning of the war, will also have an impact on the fiscal balance of Gulf countries that still rely heavily on oil as their primary source of revenue and exports, she said. Brent and WTI surged by as much as 13 per cent in the first few hours of trading after Israel began its military campaign against Tehran. Oil prices posted a third weekly gain in a row despite falling on Friday as the war sparked supply fears. On Friday, Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, fell 2.33 per cent to settle at $77.01 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, closed 0.28 per cent lower at $74.93 a barrel. Who will feel it more? Gulf countries that have diversified away from oil, such as the UAE, are more likely to resist hits caused by global economic uncertainty, Ms El-Kogali said. This was a key message of the World Bank report, Smart Spending, Stronger Outcomes: Fiscal Policy for a Thriving GCC, released last week, that measured the growth of Gulf economies until June 1. 'I think this report is really timely, because it focuses on what the GCC countries have been doing, and what impact, or the effect, those policies that have been put in place [have had],' said Ms El-Kogali. 'The UAE has started the diversification agenda a while back and currently, with 74 per cent of GDP being from the non-oil sector, puts them in a stronger position. 'The more you diversify, the more you have different opportunities to deal with crises that come your way. When you put all your eggs in one bag, and something happens to that bag, then you're in greater trouble.' Proper investment Ms El-Kogali said that higher oil prices can benefit Gulf countries, depending on how revenue is spent in the non-oil sector. 'We think that as the non-oil sector continues to be strong and growing, with the easing off of the oil production cuts, that the countries of the GCC have good gross prospects in the short and medium term,' she said. 'We really expect growth to reach 4.5 per cent by 2026 driven by the oil and the non-oil.' It takes time to see the returns of investments she added. This growth is particularly important during period of geoeconomic uncertainty. However, 'there may be the risk of spillovers' of the war which will impact the growth trajectory of Gulf nations, she said. Gulf countries have been prudent in the past during crises and 'we saw that implementing fiscal spending during downturns had a positive impact', she said. There is room to do more to further streamline spending and the Gulf countries must prioritise investments that have high returns, and can create jobs during difficult times, that will then sustain growth through economic cycles, she added.
Middle East Eye
31 minutes ago
- Middle East Eye
Pakistan slams US strikes on Iran after backing Trump for peace prize
Pakistan has denounced the US bombardment of Iranian nuclear sites, calling the move a breach of international law—just a day after Islamabad said it would nominate US President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. In a statement issued Sunday, Pakistan's foreign ministry warned the attacks risk fuelling regional chaos. 'The unprecedented escalation of tension and violence, owing to ongoing aggression against Iran is deeply disturbing. Any further escalation of tensions will have severely damaging implications for the region and beyond,' it said. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also phoned Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to express Pakistan's condemnation of the US strikes, according to a statement from Sharif's office. Islamabad reiterated its call for diplomacy, saying peaceful dialogue remains the only viable path forward in resolving the crisis
Middle East Eye
31 minutes ago
- Middle East Eye
Indian Prime Minister calls for de-escalation in phone call with Iran's president
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged calm and dialogue during a phone conversation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, according to a statement from India's foreign ministry. Modi was briefed on the latest developments in the Iran-Israel conflict during the call, the ministry said on Sunday. He 'emphasised the need for immediate de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward' and reaffirmed India's backing for 'early restoration of regional peace, security and stability,' the statement added.
