U.K., France Recognize Palestinian State—Will it Matter? Newsweek Writers Debate
Will recognition of Palestine make a difference? What would it take to achieve peace in Gaza? Newsweek contributors Dan Perry and Daniel R. DePetris debate:
Dan Perry:
France, the U.K., and others may mean well by considering recognition of Palestine, but doing so now would backfire badly by sending the message that terrorism works—that the October 7 massacre by Hamas has brought Palestinians closer to their goal. At a moment when Arab states are finally calling on Hamas to disarm, Western recognition would embolden extremists and further alienate Israelis. What is essential now is the removal of Hamas as a military force from the Palestinian arena. Only then—and only under moderate, unified leadership—should the West actively support a demilitarized Palestinian state.
Daniel R. DePetris:
The decision by the U.K. and France to recognize an independent Palestinian state is unlikely to have any effect on the situation whatsoever. This was the definition of a symbolic move, in large part due to frustration over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's stewardship of the war in Gaza as well as the horrible images depicting starvation that are streaming out of the enclave. The facts on the ground are such that a two-state solution—a U.S. policy objective for decades across Republican and Democratic administrations—is at best on life support and at worst already dead. The U.K. and French bids won't change this. Only the decisions of Israel and the Palestinians will.
Perry:
You're right that only those parties can make peace. But recognizing Palestine now would give Hamas a massive political lifeline with the Palestinian public despite its military thrashing by Israel. It signals that violence, even a global-historic massacre like October 7, yields previously unachievable diplomatic results. Without Hamas' removal, Israel won't move an inch. That's why this gesture risks sabotaging the outcome it seeks, and at the very least will need to be messaged very carefully.
DePetris:
Hamas was becoming more rigid in its negotiating stance before unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state became a mainstream policy in European capitals. I'm not so sure this latest move gives Hamas anything more than a short-term propaganda boost that will inevitably die out as the war continues. Right now, Palestinians in Gaza are focused on surviving, not on state-building—and Israel, particularly under Netanyahu's government, is unlikely to move an inch on statehood regardless of the circumstances.
Perry:
Sure, this Israeli government is as obstinate as they come. One good thing that may come of recognition is to further Netanyahu's unpopularity in Israel. But the main objective is Hamas disarming and leaving power. Perhaps Arab countries, having won this recognition for their brothers, might take further real steps to bring that about. They'll need to make sure the thing I fear—the strengthening of Hamas—does not happen.
Newsweek Illustration/Getty
DePetris:
Of course, Hamas should disarm. But there are a lot of things that should happen, but don't, for any number of reasons. Despite the beating Hamas has taken over the last 22 months, it still remains obstinate, in large part because it sees disarming as akin to surrendering. A similar dynamic is occurring with respect to Hezbollah in Lebanon, yet another anti-Israel militia that ties demilitarization to tangible (and enforceable) Israeli concessions like a full withdrawal. Would Hamas leave its weapons behind if Israel withdraws from Gaza and permanently ends the war? Perhaps. But don't count on it. Netanyahu is more interested in annexing Gaza, pushing an already remote scenario further into the distance.
Perry:
What needs to happen is an end to the war with reconstruction (as opposed to humanitarian) aid completely conditional on Hamas disarming and leaving, with the people allowed to exit as refugees if Hamas refuses. That would create huge pressure on Hamas, and possibly spark infighting as well. For any of this to work, recognition of a Palestinian state must not be credited to Hamas—that's the huge risk. The Hezbollah case is simply about Lebanon reasserting its sovereignty, which it has finally started to try to do, and here too massive Arab and Western support will be needed.
DePetris:
You're essentially describing the Israeli position: ending the war in exchange for Hamas disarming and leaving the enclave. If that were realistically possible, it would have been done already. But it isn't realistically possible; to Hamas, disarmament means surrender, and surrender means not having a place at the negotiating table. Netanyahu still believes he can accomplish this objective through military means by squeezing Gaza until Hamas throws up its hands. This is a losing strategy. It has been tried before and it jeopardizes the lives of the remaining hostages. Netanyahu can have the hostages or a full victory; not both.
Perry:
My dear fellow Dan, disarming Hamas may be spun as a victory for Netanyahu, but mainly it would be a favor to the Palestinians. This diabolical, maximalist group oppresses Gazans and its existence ensures the Palestinians will not have a state. Israel will not budge as long as they're around. There will be no Palestinian state before Hamas disarms, and I actually think both, in one form or another, will happen. I realize you think the two-state solution is no longer realistic—and if you're right, Israelis and Palestinians are doomed to be at war. I'm more optimistic than that, and from familiarity with the terrain I know it remains possible. But just barely. Let's hope the well-meaning "recognizers" don't hinder it.
DePetris:
I'm going to rain on everybody's parade: the situation in Gaza, and the Israeli-Palestinian dispute more broadly, is as depressing today as it was before the U.K. and France made their dramatic announcements about unilateral Palestinian statehood. Everybody claims they want the war to end, yet when push comes to shove, the United States does next to nothing to move it toward a conclusion. If Donald Trump is serious about seeing the fighting stop, he's going to have to get tough with Netanyahu by leveraging the U.S.' considerable military assistance. Otherwise, his entreaties are just words that mean nothing and risk drawing the United States deeper into a moral conflagration that doesn't serve its interests. I suspect Trump will take the path of least resistance, in which case we can expect the war to continue and the two-state paradigm to be buried even deeper.
Dan Perry is the former Cairo-based Middle East editor (also leading coverage from Iran) and London-based Europe/Africa editor of the Associated Press, the former chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem, and the author of two books. Follow him at danperry.substack.com.
Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at the Chicago Tribune.
The views expressed in this article are the writers' own.
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