Here are five story lines that will dominate the remainder of the Red Sox' season
This is a near-term question with a near-term answer. The Sox will face a big test immediately: nine games in 10 days against the three NL division leaders. After visiting the Cubs for three, they'll head to the Phillies for three, then return to Fenway Park for three against the Dodgers, the reigning World Series champions who are a legitimate threat to repeat.
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That is a major trial, and the timing is perfect. By the end of that stretch, it will be trade deadline week (and time for a visit to the not-as-scary Twins).
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Among the potential outcomes:
⋅ The Red Sox do great (6-3 or better), which would give them another boost in the standings and give the front office more reason to supplement the team with significant additions at the deadline.
⋅ The Red Sox do OK (4-5 or 5-4), which would be fine. They probably would still hold a playoff spot by the end.
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⋅ The Red Sox do poorly (3-6 or worse), which wouldn't be the nightmare it could have been. They bought themselves breathing room
As an aside: Keep July 26 in mind. If the Red Sox keep their rotation in line, it will be Garrett Crochet against Shohei Ohtani & Co. on a Saturday night at Fenway Park.
2. What will Craig Breslow do at the trade deadline?
The Red Sox' chief baseball officer is facing pressure,
The club responded positively. The Red Sox were 37-36 (.507 winning percentage) at the time of the Devers trade. Since then, they are 16-9 (.640).
So here the Sox are, contending but needing reinforcements. If Breslow brings in, say, a legitimate No. 2 starter and an established late-inning reliever — and maybe a hitter, depending on how they feel about their first base/DH mix — the Red Sox would have a real shot at not just qualifying for October but doing damage once they get there.
'We have to evaluate what our needs are at any given moment in time. We also have to look to the future,' Breslow said on NESN's '310 To Left' podcast. 'And right now, I would say, starting pitching is always a need, but with Lucas [Giolito], the way that he's throwing the ball, with [Brayan] Bello giving us competitive starts … maybe it's not quite as urgent as it seemed to be a few weeks ago.
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'First base, you could kind of view it the same way. But I think we're going to be really open-minded. We'll continue to watch how the team plays over the next few weeks. We've got a gauntlet coming out of the All-Star break. I think we're going to learn a lot.'
Manager Alex Cora pinned his team's poor second-half performance in recent years on a lack of help at the deadline.
'Teams get better and you stay put. I hate to say it, but that's the reality,' he said. 'The way I see the trade deadline … when teams add and you stay put, it's not that you got worse. It's just [that] other teams took a step forward. We haven't done that in a few years here.'
Manager Alex Cora feels the Red Sox didn't do enough to boost the roster at past trade deadlines.
Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff
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3. Can Garrett Crochet win the AL Cy Young Award?
This should be a fun subplot to the playoff race.
ERA: Crochet 2.23, Skubal 2.23
WHIP: Crochet 1.04, Skubal 0.83
Innings: Crochet 129⅓, Skubal 121
Strikeouts: Crochet 160, Skubal 153
Strikeout rate Crochet 31.2 percent, Skubal 33.4 percent
Opponents' batting average: Crochet .209, Skubal .192
fWAR: Crochet 4.3, Skubal 4.7
Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet (left) has a lot of competition for the AL Cy Young Award, including the Yankees' Max Fried (right).
Kevin C. Cox/Getty
To be clear, it is not a two-man competition. The Rangers' Jacob deGrom, Yankees' Max Fried, and Astros' Hunter Brown also have been great.
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Elsewhere in the major awards landscape, keep an eye on the AL Rookie of the Year race. Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson is the heavy favorite, but if he slows down,
4. Is winning the AL East still viable? And valuable?
Yes and yes. Neither the Blue Jays nor the Yankees are particularly intimidating. And in the eyes of many within baseball, it still is worth going for the division, even in this era of just-get-in, survive-and-advance expanded playoffs.
Nabbing the AL East title — which the Red Sox haven't done since 2018 — would at minimum get them home-field advantage for one round of playoffs and perhaps a bye into the second round (in which they'd have home field).
'We knew coming into the season that we needed to play better against the division and better at home,' Cora said. 'So far, we have accomplished that.'
Fact check: true.
The Red Sox are 32-20 at Fenway, already closing in on their 2024 home win total (38).
And the Sox are 20-13 against the first-place Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays, and Orioles. Last year, 25-27.
5. Can this young core remain stable during intense late-season baseball?
Among the potential pitfalls of a Red Sox run: the extreme youth of their lineup.
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They feature three rookie regulars: Narváez, Anthony, Marcelo Mayer. And then there are the two standouts who were rookies just last year: Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu.
Even with a few veterans around them — third baseman Alex Bregman, part-time DH Rob Refsnyder — it is a very young, inexperienced lineup. Shoot, even Jarren Duran has never really been part of a pennant race. Neither have Crochet and Bello.
Marcelo Mayer is among numerous Red Sox regulars who has never experienced a pennant race.
Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff
Especially with rookies, being green often means fluctuations in performance, issues that are as much physical as they are mental. Narváez already has caught more games this year than in any other. Mayer has never played more than 91 games in a season. Anthony, like all the others, has never whiffed October. And Crochet is going to reach new ground on his workload.
'I feel like I take really good care of my body and I listen to my body on my days in between starts,' Crochet said. 'From my perspective, there's nothing inhibiting me from doing that [throwing 200 innings in the regular season and then doing whatever necessary in the playoffs].'
Tim Healey can be reached at
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