Ukraine intel pause sows confusion and chaos

Politico

06-03-2025

With help from Robbie Gramer, Joe Gould, Phelim Kine, Daniel Lippman and Eli Stokols
Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric
Confusion reigned on Thursday in the wake of CIA Director JOHN RATCLIFFE's remarks yesterday that Washington has paused its vital intelligence sharing relationship with Ukraine.
The administration has been tight-lipped as to how far the ban will go. Even Ukrainian officials say they are unsure.
'We didn't yet get the details how it will be restricted,' Ukraine's Defense Minister RUSTEM UMEROV said in Berlin, where he met his German counterpart, BORIS PISTORIUS.
The ban appears to extend to U.S allies. On Wednesday, the Daily Mail reported that the United States had ordered the U.K. to stop sharing American intelligence that had previously been cleared to be shared with Ukraine. (A British official declined to comment when we tried to confirm).
But untangling British and American intelligence isn't easy, particularly when it comes to SIGINT, the collection of communications signals, where the two countries work hand-in-glove, blurring the lines over who owns what.
'You literally can't just take your satellites and go home, because that's not the way that it works,' said David Gioe, a visiting professor on intelligence and international security at King's College London.
There also could be complicated decisions to make regarding defensive intelligence that Ukraine has relied upon to learn about massing Russian forces and to defend itself from incoming missile strikes.
Under a protocol known as 'duty to warn,' U.S. spy agencies have long sought to warn other countries in the event that they pick up intelligence about an impending, potentially lethal threat — even if American citizens aren't directly in the line of fire.
In the Biden administration, this was used in at least two publicly known incidents, with the U.S. warning adversaries Russia and Iran of terror threats against their countries.
It's not clear whether this policy will apply to Ukraine under the intelligence-sharing pause.
Amy asked the CIA and the National Security Council how this rule applies in Ukraine's case, but they declined to comment.
The intelligence freeze also could create tensions — and raise even more questions — inside the Five Eyes intelligence sharing alliance, which includes the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
'How do you not question the reliability of a longstanding ally that has suddenly turned 180 degrees on what everyone agrees has been an adversary for a long time?' said RICHARD KERBAJ, author of the Secret History of the Five Eyes, .
Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations on Thursday, Trump's Ukraine envoy KEITH KELLOGG said that he had warned Ukrainian officials during a trip to Kyiv last month that the administration was willing to cut off intelligence sharing and military aid to underscore how serious it is about pursuing peace talks. 'Very candidly, they brought it on themselves, the Ukrainians,' Kellogg said.
'We let them know that this president is very serious about it and we're going to end this war. And this is one way to make sure you understand we're serious about it,' said Kellogg.
The Inbox
NEW UKRAINE TALKS IN SAUDI: Senior Trump officials are slated to meet with their Ukrainian counterparts for talks in Saudi Arabia next week, as our own Eli Stokols reports.
Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO, national security adviser MIKE WALTZ and Trump's Middle East envoy STEVE WITKOFF are expected to lead the trip. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said on X that the 'Ukrainian and American teams have resumed work, and we hope that next week we will have a meaningful meeting.'
The head of Zelenskyy's presidential office, ANDRIY YERMAK, will be attending, a Ukrainian official confirmed to our own Veronika Melkozerova. (Both the White House official and Ukrainian official were granted anonymity as they weren't authorized to speak about the meeting before it was formally announced.)
BESSENT'S IRAN WARNING: Trump's Treasury secretary issued the sharpest warning to Iran that we've seen so far from this administration. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York today, SCOTT BESSENT said the administration's new maximum pressure campaign on Iran is 'designed to collapse its already buckling economy.'
'We will close off Iran's access to the international financial system by targeting regional parties that facilitate the transfer of its revenues. Treasury is prepared to engage in frank discussions with those countries. We are going to shut down Iran's oil sector and drone manufacturing capabilities,' Bessent said. 'Making Iran Broke Again will mark the beginning of our updated sanctions policy.'
Iran is facing steep unemployment, poverty and other economic challenges already, including inflation that runs as high as 30 percent, making its economy potentially vulnerable to more punishing U.S. sanctions.
THE NUCLEAR QUESTION: With growing doubts over the United States' reliability as an ally, France's President EMMANUEL MACRON has renewed a debate inside Europe on extending his country's nuclear protection to other European allies. Those conversations come as NBC News reports today that Trump is considering major changes to the U.S. role in NATO, namely that Washington wouldn't come to an ally's aid unless it met the alliance's defense spending requirements.
So far, Poland, Germany and now Denmark have expressed interest in discussions on major changes to Europe's nuclear posture. When asked whether Denmark would be open to hosting nuclear weapons on its soil, Danish Prime Minister METTE FREDERIKSEN told reporters today: 'It's not something we are working on, but you won't get me to stand here and say no to others' ideas. Everything has to be on the table now.'
European allies are doubting Washington's commitment to the U.S. nuclear umbrella that has protected European NATO allies since the onset of the Cold War. The United Kingdom and France are the only other nuclear powers in NATO.
HAMAS THREATS: Hamas has threatened to kill the remaining hostages it has if Israel escalates its attacks against the militant group, a Hamas military spokesperson said in a statement released today. The statement comes as Israel reportedly draws up plans to resume fighting in Gaza and retake key areas of the war-torn territory as negotiations over a ceasefire and hostages release bog down.
Trump on Wednesday night warned in a Truth Social post that Hamas should release all its hostages, both those still alive and the remains of those who died, or it is 'over for you.'
IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [e-mail] and [e-mail], and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil.
While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130
THE NEW ADMINISTRATION
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY – TENSE TRANSITION AT VA: Amid staff shakeups across federal agencies, there was a particularly testy handoff last month at the Department of Veterans Affairs, our Daniel Lippman reports.
DEWAINE BEARD, who had been acting assistant secretary for information and technology and CIO of the VA, barricaded himself in his office and refused to step down for a day after his deputy, EDDIE POOL, was appointed to take over his post, three VA officials familiar with the matter told Daniel.
On Feb. 19, Pool walked into the CIO's office to put his suit down and told Beard that he was taking over, according to the officials. But Beard didn't accept the change and tried to stay in the job, even moving Pool's clothes out of the office and telling him not to enter the suite the next day, they said. Beard also told subordinates that he had given Pool's picture to security to block him from entering, according to the people.
When presented with the reporting, Beard said that's 'not what happened,' but didn't answer a follow-up question on what he disputed. He said that when Pool had sent an email to colleagues declaring himself the new CIO, it was 'insufficient authority to effect a management change.' He said that once he was notified by VA leadership that Pool would take over, he transferred authority to him 'in an orderly way with the appropriate and required documentation.'
Pool didn't respond to a request for comment. VA spokesperson PETE KASPEROWICZ said the VA 'holds all employees to the highest standards of professionalism' and that Beard is on administrative leave under the Deferred Resignation Program.
BACKLASH ON PENTAGON APPOINTEES: Republican lawmakers are lashing out over a top Trump Pentagon aide who has touted antisemitic views, white supremacist conspiracy theories and Kremlin-like statements on social media. The criticisms reflect increasing frustration among Republicans about the Trump administration's seemingly unvetted appointees.
Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary KINGSLEY WILSON's posts — which include comparing the murders of Israeli babies during the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks to abortion and spreading the far-right 'great replacement theory' — have angered lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, as our own Jack Detsch and Joe Gould reported late Wednesday.
Keystrokes
FISA IN THE HOT SEAT: Privacy advocates are pressing Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD to release information about a controversial government surveillance act that Gabbard herself previously opposed, as our own Sam Skove reports in Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!).
The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act's Section 702 allows the government to collect foreign persons' communications without a warrant when that data travels through U.S. internet and telecom companies. The provision is controversial in part because Americans who interact with those foreign individuals may then also have their data collected.
In the letter, signed by the Electronic Frontier Foundation, the American Civil Liberties Union, and 18 others, the groups are pressing Gabbard to fully declassify a ruling that specifies a new exclusion to the types of companies the law applies to. The letter's signatories argue that the unclassified, publicly available wording of the exclusion expands surveillance powers due to the use of overly broad language.
The Complex
ABOUT THAT GOLDEN DOME: Trump in his speech before Congress Tuesday night boasted about a grand plan for a 'golden dome' of missile defense to cover the U.S. homeland. And the American commander of NORAD and the U.S. Northern Command says Canada can play a role in Trump's 'Golden Dome' missile defense system, as our own Mike Blanchfield writes in.
'I'll tell you that Canada is very involved with us in talking primarily about the sensor domain awareness dome that needs to feed the rest of Golden Dome,' Gen. GREGORY GUILLOT told a security and defense conference Wednesday in Ottawa. 'And I'm hopeful that in the future, we'll be able to partner on many of those different systems that would make that layered approach.'
Of course, keeping an integrated missile defense and early warning system in the long run requires cooperation from allies who trust you. And right now, Canada isn't so sure about the United States.
On the Hill
MORE USAID FALLOUT: Senators who met privately Thursday with PETE MAROCCO, the Trump appointee who's led the dismantling of USAID, said they left with more questions than answers, as our own Joe Gould and Carmen Paun write in.
Sen. BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii), a lead appropriator for foreign aid, said the meeting was 'not constructive in the sense that we didn't get very many good answers.'
Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) emerged from the meeting, saying he wants a report from the administration about their actions and that there is universal support for the HIV relief program PEPFAR. But he defended the review, which has halted all foreign aid.
'Where we are is a product of lack of oversight by Congress and just blatant abuse and taxpayer dollars for what everybody thought was an important and beneficial purpose,' Cornyn told Joe.
Marocco did update lawmakers about invoices sent and workers rehired, but lawmakers said the numbers were proportionally small. 'The question is not did you bring 200 people back, it's how many people do you need to not cause mass death all around the world,' Schatz said.
Proponents of USAID argue that its mission is interlinked with national security, as programs on food security, governance, anticorruption and education can help stabilize foreign countries at risk of armed conflict or violent extremism, in addition to boosting American soft power abroad as it competes with China.
After a federal court ruling to unfreeze the funding, Sen. CHRIS COONS told reporters, 'I came away with no confidence that [Marocco] intends to restore funding as directed by the court.'
Broadsides
'USED' BY PUTIN: One of Zelenskyy's top political allies says Trump is 'being used' by Putin in suggesting that elections could be held in Ukraine.
OLEKSANDR MEREZHKO, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Ukrainian parliament, tells our own Anne McElvoy: '[Trump] is being used by Putin to impose elections in Ukraine with only one purpose, to undermine us from within.'
He adds: 'Putin understands that an election campaign during times of war will be destructive for our unity and for our stability. The danger is that [Putin's] using someone in Trump's entourage to promote this idea.'
You can listen to the full interview with Merezhko on POLITICO's Power Play podcast here.
And for more, read the latest scoop from our own Jamie Dettmer on how top Trump allies held secret talks with Zelenskyy's Ukrainian opponents.
WAR OF WORDS: The Chinese government rebuked Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH today, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson LIN JIAN saying he is 'fueling ideological confrontation and spreading so-called 'China threat' that doesn't exist.'
It was the latest in a back-and-forth between the two superpowers this week sparked by Beijing warning on Tuesday: 'If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we're ready to fight till the end.'
Hegseth shot back on Wednesday, saying 'We don't seek that war. But my job as secretary of Defense is to make sure we're ready. [So], we need the defense spending, the capabilities, the weapons and the posture in the Indo-Pacific, which is something we're very much focused on.'
Transitions
— Putin has appointed ALEXANDER DARCHIEV, a career Russian diplomat who has publicly and repeatedly castigated the West, as Moscow's next ambassador to the United States.
— ZEV KARLIN-NEUMANN is launching a boutique speechwriting and strategy firm, Just Write Communications LLC. He is a former speechwriter for ANTONY BLINKEN, SUSAN RICE, PETE BUTTIGIEG, and KAMALA HARRIS.
— KARIM HAGGAG has been appointed the new director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think tank. Haggag is a professor at the school of global affairs and public policy at the American University in Cairo.
— The Aerospace Industries Association has hired MARGARET BOATNER, the former deputy assistant secretary of the Army for strategy and acquisition reform, as its new vice president of national security policy.
What to Read
— Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo, Military Times: Scorned by Trump, Canadian shipbuilders flash their icebreaker skills
— Deng Machol, Associated Press: Army surrounds South Sudan vice president's home as his allies are arrested
— Ryan C. Berg, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Rubi Bledsoe, Henry Ziemer, and Eitan Casaverde, Center for Strategic and International Studies: What Is the Significance of Venezuela's Naval Incursion into Guyana?
Tomorrow Today
— Have an event coming up you'd like featured in NatSec Daily? Send us an email!
Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who will never be invited to our intelligence-sharing alliance.
Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we always send our best secrets to.