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Politico
06-03-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Ukraine intel pause sows confusion and chaos
With help from Robbie Gramer, Joe Gould, Phelim Kine, Daniel Lippman and Eli Stokols Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Confusion reigned on Thursday in the wake of CIA Director JOHN RATCLIFFE's remarks yesterday that Washington has paused its vital intelligence sharing relationship with Ukraine. The administration has been tight-lipped as to how far the ban will go. Even Ukrainian officials say they are unsure. 'We didn't yet get the details how it will be restricted,' Ukraine's Defense Minister RUSTEM UMEROV said in Berlin, where he met his German counterpart, BORIS PISTORIUS. The ban appears to extend to U.S allies. On Wednesday, the Daily Mail reported that the United States had ordered the U.K. to stop sharing American intelligence that had previously been cleared to be shared with Ukraine. (A British official declined to comment when we tried to confirm). But untangling British and American intelligence isn't easy, particularly when it comes to SIGINT, the collection of communications signals, where the two countries work hand-in-glove, blurring the lines over who owns what. 'You literally can't just take your satellites and go home, because that's not the way that it works,' said David Gioe, a visiting professor on intelligence and international security at King's College London. There also could be complicated decisions to make regarding defensive intelligence that Ukraine has relied upon to learn about massing Russian forces and to defend itself from incoming missile strikes. Under a protocol known as 'duty to warn,' U.S. spy agencies have long sought to warn other countries in the event that they pick up intelligence about an impending, potentially lethal threat — even if American citizens aren't directly in the line of fire. In the Biden administration, this was used in at least two publicly known incidents, with the U.S. warning adversaries Russia and Iran of terror threats against their countries. It's not clear whether this policy will apply to Ukraine under the intelligence-sharing pause. Amy asked the CIA and the National Security Council how this rule applies in Ukraine's case, but they declined to comment. The intelligence freeze also could create tensions — and raise even more questions — inside the Five Eyes intelligence sharing alliance, which includes the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. 'How do you not question the reliability of a longstanding ally that has suddenly turned 180 degrees on what everyone agrees has been an adversary for a long time?' said RICHARD KERBAJ, author of the Secret History of the Five Eyes, . Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations on Thursday, Trump's Ukraine envoy KEITH KELLOGG said that he had warned Ukrainian officials during a trip to Kyiv last month that the administration was willing to cut off intelligence sharing and military aid to underscore how serious it is about pursuing peace talks. 'Very candidly, they brought it on themselves, the Ukrainians,' Kellogg said. 'We let them know that this president is very serious about it and we're going to end this war. And this is one way to make sure you understand we're serious about it,' said Kellogg. The Inbox NEW UKRAINE TALKS IN SAUDI: Senior Trump officials are slated to meet with their Ukrainian counterparts for talks in Saudi Arabia next week, as our own Eli Stokols reports. Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO, national security adviser MIKE WALTZ and Trump's Middle East envoy STEVE WITKOFF are expected to lead the trip. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said on X that the 'Ukrainian and American teams have resumed work, and we hope that next week we will have a meaningful meeting.' The head of Zelenskyy's presidential office, ANDRIY YERMAK, will be attending, a Ukrainian official confirmed to our own Veronika Melkozerova. (Both the White House official and Ukrainian official were granted anonymity as they weren't authorized to speak about the meeting before it was formally announced.) BESSENT'S IRAN WARNING: Trump's Treasury secretary issued the sharpest warning to Iran that we've seen so far from this administration. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York today, SCOTT BESSENT said the administration's new maximum pressure campaign on Iran is 'designed to collapse its already buckling economy.' 'We will close off Iran's access to the international financial system by targeting regional parties that facilitate the transfer of its revenues. Treasury is prepared to engage in frank discussions with those countries. We are going to shut down Iran's oil sector and drone manufacturing capabilities,' Bessent said. 'Making Iran Broke Again will mark the beginning of our updated sanctions policy.' Iran is facing steep unemployment, poverty and other economic challenges already, including inflation that runs as high as 30 percent, making its economy potentially vulnerable to more punishing U.S. sanctions. THE NUCLEAR QUESTION: With growing doubts over the United States' reliability as an ally, France's President EMMANUEL MACRON has renewed a debate inside Europe on extending his country's nuclear protection to other European allies. Those conversations come as NBC News reports today that Trump is considering major changes to the U.S. role in NATO, namely that Washington wouldn't come to an ally's aid unless it met the alliance's defense spending requirements. So far, Poland, Germany and now Denmark have expressed interest in discussions on major changes to Europe's nuclear posture. When asked whether Denmark would be open to hosting nuclear weapons on its soil, Danish Prime Minister METTE FREDERIKSEN told reporters today: 'It's not something we are working on, but you won't get me to stand here and say no to others' ideas. Everything has to be on the table now.' European allies are doubting Washington's commitment to the U.S. nuclear umbrella that has protected European NATO allies since the onset of the Cold War. The United Kingdom and France are the only other nuclear powers in NATO. HAMAS THREATS: Hamas has threatened to kill the remaining hostages it has if Israel escalates its attacks against the militant group, a Hamas military spokesperson said in a statement released today. The statement comes as Israel reportedly draws up plans to resume fighting in Gaza and retake key areas of the war-torn territory as negotiations over a ceasefire and hostages release bog down. Trump on Wednesday night warned in a Truth Social post that Hamas should release all its hostages, both those still alive and the remains of those who died, or it is 'over for you.' IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@ and ebazail@ and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130 THE NEW ADMINISTRATION FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY – TENSE TRANSITION AT VA: Amid staff shakeups across federal agencies, there was a particularly testy handoff last month at the Department of Veterans Affairs, our Daniel Lippman reports. DEWAINE BEARD, who had been acting assistant secretary for information and technology and CIO of the VA, barricaded himself in his office and refused to step down for a day after his deputy, EDDIE POOL, was appointed to take over his post, three VA officials familiar with the matter told Daniel. On Feb. 19, Pool walked into the CIO's office to put his suit down and told Beard that he was taking over, according to the officials. But Beard didn't accept the change and tried to stay in the job, even moving Pool's clothes out of the office and telling him not to enter the suite the next day, they said. Beard also told subordinates that he had given Pool's picture to security to block him from entering, according to the people. When presented with the reporting, Beard said that's 'not what happened,' but didn't answer a follow-up question on what he disputed. He said that when Pool had sent an email to colleagues declaring himself the new CIO, it was 'insufficient authority to effect a management change.' He said that once he was notified by VA leadership that Pool would take over, he transferred authority to him 'in an orderly way with the appropriate and required documentation.' Pool didn't respond to a request for comment. VA spokesperson PETE KASPEROWICZ said the VA 'holds all employees to the highest standards of professionalism' and that Beard is on administrative leave under the Deferred Resignation Program. BACKLASH ON PENTAGON APPOINTEES: Republican lawmakers are lashing out over a top Trump Pentagon aide who has touted antisemitic views, white supremacist conspiracy theories and Kremlin-like statements on social media. The criticisms reflect increasing frustration among Republicans about the Trump administration's seemingly unvetted appointees. Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary KINGSLEY WILSON's posts — which include comparing the murders of Israeli babies during the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks to abortion and spreading the far-right 'great replacement theory' — have angered lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, as our own Jack Detsch and Joe Gould reported late Wednesday. Keystrokes FISA IN THE HOT SEAT: Privacy advocates are pressing Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD to release information about a controversial government surveillance act that Gabbard herself previously opposed, as our own Sam Skove reports in Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!). The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act's Section 702 allows the government to collect foreign persons' communications without a warrant when that data travels through U.S. internet and telecom companies. The provision is controversial in part because Americans who interact with those foreign individuals may then also have their data collected. In the letter, signed by the Electronic Frontier Foundation, the American Civil Liberties Union, and 18 others, the groups are pressing Gabbard to fully declassify a ruling that specifies a new exclusion to the types of companies the law applies to. The letter's signatories argue that the unclassified, publicly available wording of the exclusion expands surveillance powers due to the use of overly broad language. The Complex ABOUT THAT GOLDEN DOME: Trump in his speech before Congress Tuesday night boasted about a grand plan for a 'golden dome' of missile defense to cover the U.S. homeland. And the American commander of NORAD and the U.S. Northern Command says Canada can play a role in Trump's 'Golden Dome' missile defense system, as our own Mike Blanchfield writes in. 'I'll tell you that Canada is very involved with us in talking primarily about the sensor domain awareness dome that needs to feed the rest of Golden Dome,' Gen. GREGORY GUILLOT told a security and defense conference Wednesday in Ottawa. 'And I'm hopeful that in the future, we'll be able to partner on many of those different systems that would make that layered approach.' Of course, keeping an integrated missile defense and early warning system in the long run requires cooperation from allies who trust you. And right now, Canada isn't so sure about the United States. On the Hill MORE USAID FALLOUT: Senators who met privately Thursday with PETE MAROCCO, the Trump appointee who's led the dismantling of USAID, said they left with more questions than answers, as our own Joe Gould and Carmen Paun write in. Sen. BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii), a lead appropriator for foreign aid, said the meeting was 'not constructive in the sense that we didn't get very many good answers.' Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) emerged from the meeting, saying he wants a report from the administration about their actions and that there is universal support for the HIV relief program PEPFAR. But he defended the review, which has halted all foreign aid. 'Where we are is a product of lack of oversight by Congress and just blatant abuse and taxpayer dollars for what everybody thought was an important and beneficial purpose,' Cornyn told Joe. Marocco did update lawmakers about invoices sent and workers rehired, but lawmakers said the numbers were proportionally small. 'The question is not did you bring 200 people back, it's how many people do you need to not cause mass death all around the world,' Schatz said. Proponents of USAID argue that its mission is interlinked with national security, as programs on food security, governance, anticorruption and education can help stabilize foreign countries at risk of armed conflict or violent extremism, in addition to boosting American soft power abroad as it competes with China. After a federal court ruling to unfreeze the funding, Sen. CHRIS COONS told reporters, 'I came away with no confidence that [Marocco] intends to restore funding as directed by the court.' Broadsides 'USED' BY PUTIN: One of Zelenskyy's top political allies says Trump is 'being used' by Putin in suggesting that elections could be held in Ukraine. OLEKSANDR MEREZHKO, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Ukrainian parliament, tells our own Anne McElvoy: '[Trump] is being used by Putin to impose elections in Ukraine with only one purpose, to undermine us from within.' He adds: 'Putin understands that an election campaign during times of war will be destructive for our unity and for our stability. The danger is that [Putin's] using someone in Trump's entourage to promote this idea.' You can listen to the full interview with Merezhko on POLITICO's Power Play podcast here. And for more, read the latest scoop from our own Jamie Dettmer on how top Trump allies held secret talks with Zelenskyy's Ukrainian opponents. WAR OF WORDS: The Chinese government rebuked Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH today, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson LIN JIAN saying he is 'fueling ideological confrontation and spreading so-called 'China threat' that doesn't exist.' It was the latest in a back-and-forth between the two superpowers this week sparked by Beijing warning on Tuesday: 'If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we're ready to fight till the end.' Hegseth shot back on Wednesday, saying 'We don't seek that war. But my job as secretary of Defense is to make sure we're ready. [So], we need the defense spending, the capabilities, the weapons and the posture in the Indo-Pacific, which is something we're very much focused on.' Transitions — Putin has appointed ALEXANDER DARCHIEV, a career Russian diplomat who has publicly and repeatedly castigated the West, as Moscow's next ambassador to the United States. — ZEV KARLIN-NEUMANN is launching a boutique speechwriting and strategy firm, Just Write Communications LLC. He is a former speechwriter for ANTONY BLINKEN, SUSAN RICE, PETE BUTTIGIEG, and KAMALA HARRIS. — KARIM HAGGAG has been appointed the new director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think tank. Haggag is a professor at the school of global affairs and public policy at the American University in Cairo. — The Aerospace Industries Association has hired MARGARET BOATNER, the former deputy assistant secretary of the Army for strategy and acquisition reform, as its new vice president of national security policy. What to Read — Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo, Military Times: Scorned by Trump, Canadian shipbuilders flash their icebreaker skills — Deng Machol, Associated Press: Army surrounds South Sudan vice president's home as his allies are arrested — Ryan C. Berg, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Rubi Bledsoe, Henry Ziemer, and Eitan Casaverde, Center for Strategic and International Studies: What Is the Significance of Venezuela's Naval Incursion into Guyana? Tomorrow Today — Have an event coming up you'd like featured in NatSec Daily? Send us an email! Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who will never be invited to our intelligence-sharing alliance. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we always send our best secrets to.
Politico
05-03-2025
- Business
- Politico
Ukraine deal whiplash
With help from Amy Mackinnon, Maggie Miller, Carmen Paun, Daniel Lippman and Joe Gould Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Good(ish) news for the pro-Ukraine hawks in Washington: The Ukraine rare earths deal that was on and then off and then back on before being back off may now be back on again. The deal to sign away Ukrainian mineral deposits in exchange for U.S. investments is at the center of President DONALD TRUMP's plans to broker peace between Kyiv and Moscow. Reminder: It's caused a huge chronicle of diplomatic drama, angst among American allies and glee in Moscow. But here's the latest: Top Trump administration officials said they are optimistic about the prospects of Ukraine signing the deal and moving forward on peace talks. ANDRIY YERMAK, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, had a phone conversation with U.S. national security adviser MIKE WALTZ today to discuss peace talks and arrange a meeting between the two parties in the near future. (No word yet on when precisely that meeting will be.) 'We are having good talks on location for the next round of negotiations, on delegations, on substance. Just in the last 24 hours … I think we're going to see movement in very short order,' Waltz told reporters outside the White House after the call. It's unclear what that meeting might look like, though reports circulating in European press suggest that Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY could come to Washington next week to discuss peace talks, possibly with U.K. Prime Minister KEIR STARMER and French President EMMANUEL MACRON planning to join him on the trip. (Sources within Starmers's office told other reporters there were 'no discussions' about going to Washington to talk about peace plans. A spokesperson for the French embassy did not respond to a request for comment) For the pro-Ukraine camp, that good news comes with a big heap of bad news: Trump cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine, a move that has shocked and angered U.S. allies and could significantly erode Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia in the short-term, as our own Jack Detsch, Matt Honeycombe-Foster, Joe Gould and Paul McLeary report. It appears to be part of an effort to pressure Ukraine back to the negotiating table. But it's a tactic that Democrats and U.S. allies, to say nothing of officials in Kyiv, are seething over. 'If President Trump gives away all of our leverage, then he's basically handing Vladimir Putin whatever he wants,' Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told our own Joe Gould. It's worth noting we haven't seen what, if anything, the Trump administration is doing to ramp up pressure on Russia to negotiate with Ukraine. This all comes a day after Trump gave a joint address to Congress. In that address, he said Zelenskyy sent him a letter saying Ukraine is ready for peace and that they 'value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence, while adding on the rare earths agreement: 'Ukraine is ready to sign it at any time that is convenient for you.' The Inbox FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY – HOSTAGE FAMILIES MEET AG: Several family members of Americans who are being held hostage in Gaza met with Attorney General PAM BONDI on Tuesday to press her on getting justice for them, a person in the meeting told our DANIEL LIPPMAN. RUBY and ROY CHEN, the father and brother of ITAY CHEN; RONEN and ORNA NEUTRA, the parents of OMER NEUTRA; and DANA MILO and DALIT MADAR, the nieces of GAD HAGGAI and JUDIH WEINSTEIN, met for around 45 minutes with Bondi and Acting Deputy Attorney General EMIL BOVE. 'She was very attentive,' the person said. 'She fully understands the severity of the issue and understands that holding U.S. citizens should be a liability, not an asset, and we raised some ideas with her in her toolbox,' such as sanctions and indictments. Chen had met Bondi at the Munich Security Conference a few weeks ago and set up the meeting after she expressed interest in getting to know the families. Bondi created a joint task force focused on Oct. 7 to hold Hamas accountable and investigate any people or entities that helped Hamas launch the terror attack, which killed 46 Americans that day. A Justice Department spokesperson confirmed the meeting and noted that it also included leadership from the department's National Security Division and the task force. 'During the meeting, the Attorney General reaffirmed the Department's unwavering commitment to seeking justice for the U.S. victims and their families,' the spokesperson said in a statement. TALKS WITH HAMAS: The Trump administration has been holding direct talks with Hamas officials in a bid to secure the release of the remaining U.S. hostages in Gaza and possible avenues to end the conflict, Axios reported today. U.S. presidential envoy for hostage affairs ADAM BOEHLER met with the group in Doha, according to the report — an unprecedented move as the U.S. has never directly engaged with Hamas, which was designated a terror group by Washington in 1997. Despite the Trump administration's close ties with Israel, U.S. officials did not seek direct buy-in from their Israeli counterparts, per the report. MEET ME IN MINSK: Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV suggested that the Belarussian capital Minsk would be the best place to hold peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, in remarks made to the Russian news agency Interfax on Tuesday. 'It is our main ally, so it is the best place for negotiations,' said Peskov, while acknowledging that the question of where to hold potential future talks had yet to be discussed. To recap, Russia used its western neighbor of Belarus as a launching pad for much of its assault on Kyiv amid the full-scale invasion in 2022. Moscow has also stationed some of its tactical nuclear weapons in the country. Hardly neutral territory. A WARNING FROM CHINA: After Trump railed against China during his address to Congress on Tuesday night, the Chinese embassy in Washington said the following on X: 'If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we're ready to fight till the end.' And on the 'any other type of war' front, China just announced it will increase its defense spending by 7.2 percent this year as it continues its campaign to build a larger and more capable military force. The official Chinese military budget is around $245 billion, but the Pentagon assesses the real number may lie between $330 and $450 billion, according to a public report on the People's Republic of China's military capabilities released late last year. The consensus among experts is that the PRC's publicly announced defense spending figure does not contain the entirety of PRC investment in its defense, so alternative approaches are used to assess the total value of this spending,' the report states. AFRICA'S EPICENTER OF TERRORISM: The Sahel region of Africa is the world's biggest hotspot of terrorism, according to a new report titled the Global Terrorism Index, released by the Institute for Economics and Peace research group. The Sahel is 'the global epicenter of terrorism, accounting for over half of all terrorism-related deaths in 2024 with the number of countries affected increasing,' the report concludes. Western efforts to counter the rise of terrorism have faltered in recent years, in the face of advances by terrorist groups and regimes in the region kicking out Western partners to ally with Russian mercenary groups instead. (Side note: Those mercenary groups aren't very good at counterterrorism.) Overall, ISIS still gets top billing as the world's deadliest terrorism group, as it expanded its operations to 22 countries, the report notes. Most of its activities are centered in Syria and, increasingly, poorly-governed regions of the Congo. IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@ and ebazail@ and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team: @dave_brown24,@HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130 Keystrokes TARGETING CHINESE HACKERS: The Trump administration on Wednesday announced a series of charges and sanctions against a dozen Chinese nationals — including two tied to the Chinese government — for hacking critical U.S. government systems, as our own Maggie Miller writes in (for Pros!). As part of the overall measures, the Justice Department brought charges against 12 Chinese nationals for the Treasury breach and other attacks on groups or individuals critical of the Chinese government. These included attacks on an unnamed large religious group in the U.S. that sent missionaries to China, foreign ministries of Asian nations and other unnamed U.S. federal and state agencies. Those charged included Chinese nationals Yin Kecheng and Zhou Shuai for their involvement in cyberattacks as far back as 2013. Both were identified as members of the APT27 hacking group, a prolific Chinese hacking operation that has targeted dozens of organizations globally, including U.S. defense contractors. On the Hill USAID FIREWORKS: PETE MAROCCO, the Trump appointee who's led the dismantling of USAID, briefed members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee in a closed-door, one-hour meeting this morning, as our own Carmen Paun reports. A dozen protesters turned up in front of the room where the meeting was taking place, accusing Marocco — who's the director of foreign assistance at the State Department and manages what's left of the agency — of having blood on his hands for putting people at risk of disease and death globally through the freeze and termination of many lifesaving programs, such as those for HIV prevention, malaria or tuberculosis. The Democratic members of the committee left the meeting unhappy, saying they were only allotted several minutes to ask questions. They accused Marocco and the Trump administration of lack of transparency and of not abiding by constitutional congressional oversight of the executive branch. 'He's hiding information about the American companies he's terminated, about the programs they've terminated, about the folks that they wrongfully terminated and then asked to come back,' said Rep. SYDNEY KAMLAGER-DOVE (D-Ca.), after the meeting. But House Foreign Affairs Committee chair BRIAN MAST (R-Fla.) said: 'Mr. Morocco was very clear in exposing the waste that goes on out there, in pointing out the way that many of these programs in State and USAID were designed to not be accountable.' Mast also said that the Supreme Court ruling Wednesday siding with a federal judge that ordered the Trump administration to pay nearly $2 billion for foreign aid work already done by contractors and nonprofits should not be interpreted too broadly. 'We're going to continue to fight it,' Mast told reporters. The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment about Marocco's meeting with committee members. Broadsides GREENLAND, AGAIN (AND AGAIN): Greenland's Prime Minister MÚTE BOURUP EGEDE had a sharp response to Trump's latest comments on acquiring the Arctic territory. 'Greenland is ours,' Egede said. 'We are not for sale and cannot simply be taken. Our future will be decided by us in Greenland.' Trump during his joint address to Congress last night said of Greenlanders: 'We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America' — but then added: 'I think we're going to get it. One way or the other, we're going to get it.' Transitions — The Asia Group international consulting firm announced it was expanding its Indo-Pacific defense & national security practice, adding CHRISTOPHER JOHNSTONE, who was NSC director for East Asia in the Biden administration, and ABRAHAM DENMARK, former senior advisor to Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN. — MAX BLUESTEIN is now director of strategic communications at the NSC. He previously was senior adviser at Interpol Washington. — JORDAN WARLICK has been promoted to be senior policy adviser at the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe. What to Read — Sam Stein, The Bulwark: Hundreds of State Dept. Officials Sign Dissent Cable Urging Rubio to Stop Killing USAID — Brady Africk and Leon Aron, The Hill: Trump's 'Art of the Deal' is nowhere to be found in talks with Ukraine — Phelim Kine, POLITICO: State Department further scrutinizes foreign aid for DEI, climate and transgender projects — Dasl Yoon, Wall Street Journal: The North Korean defector who's been called a 'hero of Ukraine' Tomorrow Today — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Human Domain Lessons from Russia-Ukraine — Hudson Institute, 9:30 a.m.: Rebuilding America's Maritime Industrial Base with Senators Mark Kelly and Todd Young — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: Iranian Networks in the Middle East — Krasno Global Affairs and Business Council, 5:30 p.m.: Is peace imminent? Trump, Putin & the Ukraine war: Military & geopolitical dimensions Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who we would never trust sharing intelligence with. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who's intelligence gathering capabilities are unparalleled.
Politico
05-02-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Reading between the lines of Trump's Gaza plan
With help from Joe Gould, Eli Stokols, Ali Bianco, Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The White House is insisting that President DONALD TRUMP's explosive suggestion that the United States could take over Gaza and relocate millions of Palestinian people should be taken both seriously and literally as lawmakers try to tamper down the idea and allies protest the dramatic proposal. Trump's plan drew immediate, sharp backlash from Arab countries and Palestinian authorities, as well as assertions from Democratic lawmakers and other international legal scholars that the concept is illegal. But the backlash isn't giving Trump's team pause. One White House official, granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly, said the rollout of Trump's suggestion was intentional and not something he just riffed on in the moment. This official also said the swift backlash from Arab powers wouldn't stop the administration from pushing on this idea. 'The initial reaction doesn't always match the finish line. The Colombian president was pretty defiant at first about migrant relocations, but that changed pretty fast,' the official said, referring to the diplomatic stand-off between Trump and Colombia last month on accepting deportation flights. Some Republican lawmakers are already spinning it in a way that suggests that they aren't actually taking the president literally here. 'I do not know the details of the president's plan, it came out of the blue, it may be a negotiating tactic rather than a real plan but I do not see it as feasible,' Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) told reporters today. 'Do I expect to have the president suddenly changing the way that he's done things in the past and committing troops? No, I don't. But once again, he's simply making it clear that he would like to see peace in the Middle East, and he's willing to be a player,' said Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.). Indeed, MIKE WALTZ, Trump's national security adviser, suggested in an interview that Trump's comments could spur other countries in the region to come up with their own plans to rebuild war-torn Gaza. 'The fact that nobody has a realistic solution, and he puts some very bold, fresh, new ideas out on the table, I don't think should be criticized in any way, I think it's going to bring the entire region to come with their own solutions,' Waltz told CBS in an interview today. Democrats, meanwhile, appear stuck somewhere between fuming anger and shock. Sen. ANDY KIM (D-N.J.) bristled at the suggestion of taking Trump 'seriously but not literally' on the plan when we asked him about it. 'I understand people are bending over backwards to try to mitigate some of the fallout from these statements that are made. But he's the commander-in-chief of the most powerful military in the world. And I can't take what he says literally, if I can't take the words of the president of the United States to actually mean something, rather than needing some type of oracle to be able to explain, I just don't know what to think about when it comes to our national security.' All the while, U.S. allies and Arab powers are reacting with anger that suggests even floating the plan — literal or conceptually — is causing diplomatic shockwaves. 'My government will oppose any forced displacement of the Palestinian people, support the rebuilding of Gaza, and work urgently towards a two-state solution. Forced displacement would be a serious violation of international law and an attack on the rules-based international order,' Canadian lawmaker CHRYSTIA FREELAND wrote on X. (Freeland is former deputy prime minister and foreign minster). 'It represents a profound affront to the resilience and sacrifices of the people of Gaza,' one Arab diplomat, granted anonymity to speak on the matter candidly, told NatSec Daily. 'This proposal would be seen as an insult to the bravery of a population that has continually rebuilt their homes, schools, and lives in the wake of destruction. Such initiatives undermine the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people to live with dignity and peace on their land.' The Inbox USAID PROTESTS: Protestors gathered on the upper lawn in front of Congress calling for protections for USAID officers and for the Trump administration to 'let them work,' as the marquee aid agency's future looks increasingly grim. Our colleague Ali Bianco was at the scene, as protesters bashed Trump, Secretary of State (and acting USAID Administrator) MARCO RUBIO and ELON MUSK. A spattering of signs were visible calling the so-called Department of Government Efficiency a 'criminal organization.' Democratic members of Congress reaffirmed to the crowd they will fight to protect USAID through litigation and on the Congress floor. But the group of hundreds of people who showed up with signs and upside-down American flags are screaming for a fight — and vowing that next time, it'll be a march on Washington. That said, it's unclear how much marches and protests will sway hearts and minds about the future of the agency. Democratic strategists who spoke to our colleague Rachael Bade are skeptical that supporting foreign aid is a savvy political hill for the party to die on this early into Trump's second term. And the Trump administration is moving ahead with plans to put U.S. staff in Washington and working at offices around the world on administrative leave. Related: The Trump administration is targeting 'waste at USAID.' At least one example wasn't USAID by NOTUS' Katherine Swartz. HAITI MSS WAIVER: The Trump administration granted a critical waiver to the foreign aid pause so that a Kenyan-led multinational security support mission to Haiti wouldn't run out of funding. The commander of the international force, GODFREY OTUNGE of the Kenya Police, said today at a briefing that Trump granted a waiver to the 90-day aid pause and has continued providing funding to the mission via the Defense Department, per the New York Times' André Paultre and Frances Robles. His statement came as a new crop of Kenyan police officers arrived to support the mission to bolster Haiti's beleaguered national police force. On Tuesday, The Miami Herald reported that the U.N. lost access to most of the $15 million the Biden administration gave to a trust supporting the MSS, which is deployed in the Caribbean country as it seeks to quell an ongoing onslaught of violence from heavily armed gangs. U.N. spokesperson STÉPHANE DUJARRIC warned the funding freeze would have an 'immediate impact' on security in Haiti. Only $1.7 million of the $15 million allotted to the trust was spent to date, Dujarric explained, meaning the mission has quickly found itself shut out of a major pool of financial resources. EAST CONGO PEACE LAPSES: Shortly after the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group declared a unilateral humanitarian cease-fire in east Congo, the group resumed attacks against Congolese positions near Goma. The U.N. says M23, the largest of the hundreds of armed groups in the mineral-reach region of Congo, is currently backed by thousands of Rwandan troops. Rwandan President PAUL KAGAME has not conceded that Rwandan troops are operating in Congolese territory, but the conflict is poised to become a larger regional conflagration as Uganda deploys troops to Congo. IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@ and ebazail@ and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130 THE NEW ADMINISTRATION CIA GETS FORKED: Even the nation's intelligence agencies aren't exempt from the Trump administration's unrelenting efforts to disembowel federal bureaucracy. CIA employees Tuesday night were sent a 'fork in the road' email akin to the ones received at other agencies offering them deferred resignation. The CIA claims the objective is to 'infuse the agency with renewed energy, provide opportunities for rising leaders to emerge and better position the C.I.A. to deliver on its mission,' according to a statement from a CIA spokesperson to the Times. Meanwhile, The New York Times' David Sanger and Julian Barnes report that the agency sent the White House an unclassified email with the names of recent hires stretching back over the last two years. The list included first names and the first initials of last names of a large crop of young analysts and operatives focused on China — whose identities are usually closely guarded. The moves won't quiet concerns that Trump will seek to punish the nation's intelligence agencies for allegedly working against him during his first term and participating in investigations into his alleged wrongdoing during his first administration. MORE FSO ISSUES: The State Department has canceled its February foreign service officer test to comply with Trump's 90-day hiring freeze, a State Department spokesperson told our own Daniel Lippman. State has also suspended testing for Foreign Service Specialist candidates and for candidates of its Consular Fellows Program while the department reassesses hiring requirements, the spokesperson continued. It's the latest blow for America's budding diplomats. Lippman and our own Nahal Toosi reported last week that whether the incoming April class of Foreign Service Officers can start their training is also up in the air, given the freeze. It'll also likely exacerbate the drain on the Foreign Service; during the first year of the first Trump administration, the number of Americans who took the thrice-yearly Foreign Service exam to try to join the State Department fell by a quarter and numbers have not fully recovered from those efforts to shrink Foggy Bottom. Keystrokes CYBER WORKFORCE BILL: House Homeland Security Chair MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) reintroduced his bill to boost the U.S. government's cybersecurity workforce and promote cyber careers. At a hearing today, the Tennessee Republican reiterated his support for the Cyber Pivott Act, which would create a scholarship program available to students at two-year degree programs and technical institutions in exchange for their service in local, state or national government. It would also expedite the security clearance process for participants and help mid-career professionals pivot into government cyber work. The bill has the backing of Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.), who has introduced a companion bill in the Senate. As our own friends at Morning Cybersecurity previewed this morning, the bill received unanimous backing from the House panel last year, and Rounds' support indicates it will at least have a Senate companion. But it remains unclear how much the Trump administration will prioritize cyber policy in the coming years. The Complex A STUDIOUS PENTAGON: While other agencies are being culled, the Defense Department has been charged with completing and supporting an ever-growing list of studies, plans and new missions. As our friends at Morning Defense wrote this morning (for Pros!), the White House has commissioned a gamut of studies and added to Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH's homework list. These include: And that's not even factoring in what Hegseth has to do on border security, shipping migrants to Guantanamo Bay and just the regular business of running the world's most powerful military. Transitions — ADAM JACKMAN is now director of strategic communications in the FCC's Office of Media Relations. He previously worked as director of digital communications for the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party. — ALEXANDER KRAMER is now a partner at Crowell & Moring. He previously was assistant chief in the DOJ Criminal Division's Foreign Corrupt Practices Act Unit. — The Jewish Council for Public Affairs is adding EMILY GRAHAM as chief of staff and BENJAMIN SUARATO as director of advocacy and public affairs. Graham most recently was political, finance, and digital director for Sen. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND's (D-N.Y.) reelect. Suarato most recently was spokesperson and press director at USAID. What to Read — NAHAL TOOSI, POLITICO: Trump Is turning out to be a very pro-China president — KEN OPALO, An Africanist Perspective: On American aid cuts/disruptions — SINAN CIDDI and ANDREA STRICKER, Foundation for Defense of Democracies: Is Turkey the next nuclear proliferant state? Tomorrow Today — Hudson Institute, 8:30 a.m.: A discussion on 'The U.S.-Japan Relationship under New Administrations' with Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.) — Inter-American Dialogue, 10 a.m.: A roadmap for the protection of independent journalism in repressive countries — Wilson Center's Mexico Institute and Canada Institute, 10:30 a.m.: North American trade war? The geopolitical impacts for China and the United States — Wilson Center's Africa Program, 10:30 a.m.: A discussion to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the 'Africa: Year in Review' publication — House Veterans' Affairs Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee, 2:00 p.m.: VA first, Veteran second: The Biden-Harris legacy — Georgetown University, 4:30 p.m.: Breaking Latin America's cycle of low growth and violence Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who should be protested. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is beloved and trusted by all.
