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Politico
4 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Moderate Dems get tougher on Netanyahu
With help from Joe Gould, Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Eric The rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is causing even some of Israel's staunchest defenders in the Democratic party to pile some harsh criticism on the U.S. ally. The top Democrats on the Senate Armed Services, Intelligence, Foreign Relations and Judiciary Committees and relevant foreign policy and defense Appropriations subcommittees issued a joint statement today calling on President DONALD TRUMP to apply more pressure on Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU to end the war in the Gaza Strip and restore the distribution of food and other humanitarian aid into the territory. None of these Democrats — Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN of New Hampshire, JACK REED of Rhode Island, MARK WARNER of Virginia, DICK DURBIN of Illinois, CHRIS COONS of Delaware and BRIAN SCHATZ of Hawaii — are avowed critics of Israel. Most have only rebuked Israel periodically since the Gaza war broke out and have supported aid to Israel throughout their careers. And they join a whole host of pro-Israel Democrats who have voiced their discomfort with Israel's actions over the course of this week. That includes Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.), who on Tuesday became one of the first prominent Democratic moderates to do so, and Sen. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.), the third-highest ranking Democratic leader in the Senate. Klobuchar issued a sharp rebuke to Israel in a floor speech Thursday. On the House side, Rep. RITCHIE TORRES (D-N.Y.) got into a spat Thursday on X with Rep. RANDY FINE (R-Fla.) after Fine said that Palestinians should 'starve away' in the Gaza Strip until Hamas released the remaining Israeli hostages in its captivity. Torres has previously come under fire from critics of Israel for at times being too dismissive about the plight of Palestinians in the enclave. The moderates are sounding more and more like progressives, who have been lashing out at Israel for its approach to the Gaza war and calling on the White House across two administrations to use every tool possible to push Netanyahu to alleviate human suffering in the enclave. It's a critical moment in the conflict. The Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has struggled to distribute aid to Palestinians in the enclave, exacerbating widespread starvation in the territory. Israeli troops are accused of firing on Palestinians seeking aid, killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in recent weeks. Israel has downplayed concerns about the inadequacy of humanitarian aid, blaming Hamas for the violence associated with aid not getting to people and arguing it's a question of inadequate distribution, not volume, of aid entering the territory. The Trump administration has repeatedly pointed the finger at Hamas for the plight of Palestinians in the enclave. Some Democrats have acknowledged in recent weeks that they're facing considerably more pressure to call out Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip from the base. But don't expect the Democratic Party to abandon Israel anytime soon. The pro-Israel group Democratic Majority for Israel, a major player in Democratic primaries, put out a statement today that principally singled out Hamas for the issues with aid. A number of Senate Democratic defenders of Israel, including Minority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Penn.), have also not spoken out. Most Republicans, meanwhile, are keeping mum, making it deeply unlikely the worsening crisis in Gaza moves the White House to use its leverage on Netanyahu. The Inbox MUSK'S OTHER SHUTDOWN: ELON MUSK ordered the shutdown of vital Starlink communications satellite services for Ukraine along the frontline in September 2022, according to a Reuters report. The cut affected service around Kherson, which Ukraine was attempting to reclaim from Russia, and areas in eastern Ukraine. The Starlink shutdown led to the failure of a Ukrainian operation to retake the town of Beryslav, a Ukrainian military official told Reuters. Starlink terminals are vital to Ukraine's military operations, serving as the communications linchpin between command, drone and artillery units. The U.S. military is also increasingly using Starlinks for its own forces. It's not clear why Musk ordered the shutdown. However, the cut-off happened around the time when U.S. officials believed Russia might use a nuclear weapon to attack Ukraine. Reuters also reveals other findings that Musk ordered the shutdown of Starlink services in Russian-occupied Crimea in September 2022 to prevent a Ukrainian attack on Russian ships there. Musk later said he had not shut down services but rather never activated them in Crimea. WORSENING FIREFIGHT IN ASIA: Fighting between Thailand and Cambodia along their border continued into today, forcing thousands of civilians on both sides to flee the area. The two countries have been in talks for a ceasefire. But with them trading fire from powerful rocket launchers and artillery, that's looking increasingly unlikely. Acting Thai Prime Minister PHUMTHAM WECHAYACHAI said the conflict could become a war, threatening yet greater violence between the two historic adversaries. Thailand has accused Cambodia of intentionally targeting civilians. The brewing conflict could complicate efforts for the U.S. to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. Thailand, the militarily more powerful nation, is a close U.S. ally. Cambodia is more aligned with China, Vietnam and Russia, from whom it has received military supplies. NUDGING A NUKE DEAL: With the New START Treaty set to expire in 195 days, arms control advocates are urging Trump and Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN to strike an interim deal to avoid a surge in nuclear weapons. 'Unless Trump and Putin reach an interim deal to maintain existing limits, we could soon see each side increasing the size of their deployed nuclear arsenals for the first time in more than 35 years by uploading warheads on existing missiles, which is no one's interests,' DARYL KIMBALL, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said in a statement. The comments came after Trump signaled support for renewed talks, telling Russia's TASS, 'We are starting to work on that. That is a big problem for the world, when you take off nuclear restrictions, that's a big problem.' SOME NEWS ON THE HOME FRONT: Are you a NatSec Daily reader who also cares deeply about the economic changes the Trump administration is ushering in? We have good news for you. POLITICO's flagship financial newsletter has a new Friday edition built for the economic era we're living in: one shaped by political volatility, disruption and a wave of policy decisions with sector-wide consequences. Each week, Morning Money: Capital Risk brings sharp reporting and analysis on how political risk is moving markets and how investors are to know how health care regulation, tariffs or court rulings could ripple through the economy? Start here. The first issue dropped today. Read it here. IT'S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on social media: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes LIE TO ME: The five leading Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots provided false or unhelpful information more than half the time in a test run by analytics company NewsGuard, the company said today. In the test, the company presented chatbots with 10 false narratives spread by Chinese official media and pro-Chinese media. The narratives included that the U.S. had severed relations with China and that Taiwan was calling up draftees in preparation for war with China. In 40 percent of cases, the chatbots — Ernie, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Qwen and Yuanbao — presented false information. In 20 percent of cases, the chatbots did not debunk the false narratives. In one case, a chatbot presented Chinese government policy on Taiwan without being explicitly asked to do so. The failure rates were similar in Mandarin and English. It's a troubling finding for users in China, but also elsewhere as Chinese chatbots are increasingly popular across the world. The Complex NASA EXODUS: NASA will lose 20 percent or more of its staff, including thousands of senior personnel, under a Trump administration push to slim the federal government, Sam reports in POLITICO's Space newsletter. The voluntary departures include 2,892 civil servants in the agency's GS-13 through GS-15 pay levels — senior positions reserved for those with significant technical or managerial responsibilities, like planning Mars missions or leading work on space telescopes. The losses could affect U.S. plans to land astronauts on the moon by 2027, a key goal as the U.S. races to beat China back to the lunar surface. In an open letter to interim NASA Administrator Sean Duffy, a group of current and former NASA employees protested this week that the departures would eliminate 'highly specialized, irreplaceable knowledge crucial to carrying out NASA's mission.' Still, the departures, which the administration has incentivized through a range of offerings to employees, may not be enough for the Trump administration. The White House wants to cut over 5,000 staff from NASA from its 2024 staffing level, meaning that NASA may have to fire more than 1,000 additional staff. POLISH ARMS: The United States on Friday announced a $4 billion loan guarantee to Poland under the Foreign Military Financing program, a big boon for one of the NATO allies most in the Trump administration's good graces. The announcement did not name any specific acquisition programs that the loan guarantee might support. Poland has gone on a buying spree of U.S. arms in recent years, a binge that has included 96 Apache helicopters and over 400 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. 'Poland remains one of America's strongest and most dependable allies in Europe,' State Department spokesperson TAMMY BRUCE said in a statement. Poland's spending of more than 4 percent of its gross domestic product on its military places it favorably among European nations for the Trump administration, which has pressed for NATO members to spend five percent of GDP on defense. NATO members agreed to hit this goal by 2035 at the most recent summit. Poland aims to hit that number by 2026, officials have previously said. Broadsides CHINA CRIES COLONIALISM: The Chinese government's hands-off approach to the worsening cross-border military skirmishes between U.S. treaty ally Thailand and China-aligned Cambodia isn't curbing Beijing from blaming Western countries for the dispute. 'The root cause of this issue stems from the legacy of Western colonialism from years past, and now requires a calm and prudent approach to resolution,' Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI told ASEAN Secretary-General KAO KIM HOURN in Beijing today, per a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement. Wang made clear Beijing is leaving it to ASEAN — of which Cambodia and Thailand are both members — to undertake 'mediation efforts' between Bangkok and Phnom Penh to end the fighting. As in Ukraine, the conflict provides Beijing a real-time opportunity to observe and analyze military tactics and the relative performance of U.S. and Chinese-supplied weaponry. Transitions — DILLON McGREGOR is now acting assistant secretary for legislative affairs at the Department of Homeland Security. He most recently was a senior adviser at DHS. — BRIAN SATTLER is now strategic planner for the senior adviser to the secretary for the Coast Guard. He most recently was director for maritime and industrial capacity at the National Security Council. — PALOMA CHACON has been promoted to press secretary for the Department of Homeland Security. — RAVI SINGH has been promoted to be senior vice president and CFO of the Export-Import Bank of the United States. — JOEL VALDEZ is now acting deputy press secretary for the Pentagon. He most recently was communications director and senior adviser for Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.) and has previously worked for MATT GAETZ. What to Read — Glenn Gerstell, The New York Times: Remember the TikTok Ban? Does Anyone? — Marton Dunai, The Financial Times: Could Hungary's faltering economy topple Orbán? — Katharine Houreld, The Washington Post: As Kenya's protests intensified, two friends bled on opposite sides Monday Today — Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 11 a.m.: Violence in Suwayda: No 'Plan B' for Syria? — Hudson Institute, 4:30 p.m.: What Taiwan Can Learn from Ukraine's Battlefield Experience. Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who provide us with false or unhelpful information more than half the time.
Politico
21-07-2025
- Business
- Politico
Charging against China's battery dominance
With help from Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — As China steps up what some in Washington are describing as coercive economic statecraft against the United States, a Washington think tank is publishing an accounting of Beijing's nonmarket practices vis-à-vis battery technology. At a Tuesday event on Capitol Hill, The Foundation for Defense of Democracies is releasing a report outlining how Beijing's 'parasitic' efforts to lead the advanced batteries sector are potentially impairing U.S. national security. Your favorite national security newsletter got a first look at the report, which traces how China came to dominate pretty much every part of the production of these batteries, which are used to power everything from electric vehicles to battlefield communications systems and directed energy weapons. In turn, the authors argue Beijing has created chokepoints in the supply chain that can be used to apply pressure on the U.S. and its allies. To be sure, China is not the only country using economic levers in place of more traditional foreign policy tools against its adversaries. Both Trump administrations and the Biden administration have used measures, including export controls, tariffs and targeted sanctions, to keep Beijing from obtaining and developing sensitive technologies. Yet China's structural advantages against the United States have only grown. And batteries in particular are becoming increasingly important to a whole spate of military technologies, most notably drones. Without advanced batteries and the critical minerals that go into them (which China also controls), the U.S. and other allies may be forced to make painful concessions to Beijing or risk falling behind on the battlefield. 'Batteries are the bullets of future wars,' said ELAINE DEZENSKI, one of the authors of the report and the head of the think tank's Center on Economic and Financial Power. 'If we don't have control over those supply chains, we degrade our military capabilities.' Meanwhile, China is making some dramatic economic moves against the United States. Over the weekend, Chinese officials barred a U.S. Commerce Department employee from exiting the country. Today, Chinese officials confirmed they're also similarly targeting a Goldman Sachs executive. And last week, Beijing imposed new export controls against the United States — this time specifically impacting the batteries at the heart of FDD's report. And FDD isn't the only one expressing alarm about China's supply chain dominance — the question of China's economic rise and its impacts on U.S. national security weighed heavily on participants at last week's Aspen Security Forum. In one memorable moment at the Rocky Mountain confab, former Ambassador to China NICHOLAS BURNS said on a panel that 'we have underestimated the speed and strength of China on issues like economic coercion,' noting China's outsized influence over critical mineral supply chains. Dezenski says that the report is intended as a first step to help policymakers in Washington devise the right solutions to protect U.S. manufacturers and businesses that rely on advanced battery technology. 'There's no silver bullet,' Dezenski said. 'Unless we know what we're up against, we can't stop it.' The Inbox RESTARTING RUSSIA-UKRAINE TALKS: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said talks between Russia and Ukraine to end Moscow's three-year invasion will resume Wednesday. Earlier in the day, Reuters reported that there are still plenty of obstacles to talks, should they occur. Zelenskyy said that his agenda is clear and includes 'the return of prisoners of war, the return of children abducted by Russia and the preparation of a leaders' meeting.' But Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN views Zelenskyy as an illegitimate leader — making it doubtful the two may meet — and the Kremlin suggested it's still reviewing draft proposals carefully. 'There is our draft memorandum and there is a draft memorandum that has been handed over by the Ukrainian side. There is to be an exchange of views and talks on these two drafts, which are diametrically opposed so far,' said Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV. UAE SENDING BACK AFGHAN REFUGEES? The United Arab Emirates already returned some refugees to Afghanistan before President DONALD TRUMP vowed to protect thousands of Afghans who fled potential persecution by the Taliban for helping the U.S. during two decades of military operations in the country. On Sunday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that 'I will try to save them, starting right now,' linking to an article on the Afghans held in limbo in the Emirates. But as Reuters' Humeyra Pamuk reported Sunday night, a State Department cable revealed that the Emiratis already sent Afghan refugees back and informed Washington about the move before Trump issued his promise. Special adviser to the Emirati Foreign Minister SALEM AL-ZAABI told U.S. officials earlier in July that two families were returned to Afghanistan in early July 'at their request, since they were tired of waiting.' More refugees will likely return as they wait in the Emirates and other countries for their asylum claims to be processed. STATE OF THE STOCKPILES: The Jewish Institute for National Security of America think tank is out with new research on the effects of Israel and Iran's recent war on weapons stockpiles, revealing that the U.S. used some of its high-powered weaponry to protect Israel. The U.S. used many more THAAD interceptors than expected to down some Iranian missiles, which evaded Israel's Iron Dome defense system, per data reviewed by JINSA analysts. Iran has shifted away from using drones and regular missiles towards using ballistic missiles, which require more U.S. help to shoot down. Most of the Iranian missiles fired at Israel were ultimately intercepted, though THAAD interceptors are in high demand and their use cost U.S. taxpayers over a billion dollars, per the report. ARI CICUREL, a JINSA analyst who authored the white paper, told NatSec Daily, 'nothing that has been devised or likely will be devised is going to be foolproof.' But it is a warning that the U.S. and Israel need to replenish their stocks of interceptors across the arsenal and innovate such that they can develop even more cost-effective and higher-quality air defense systems. 'The baseline levels they had before are not going to be sufficient going forward. They need to expand the stockpiles that they keep so that in a war of this size, they're not using as large of a percentage of their stocks,' Cicurel said. MARINES HEADED HOME: Hundreds of active-duty Marines who were deployed to Los Angeles in response to protests over the administration's immigration enforcement actions are being sent home, according to CNN. The approximately 700 Marines were deployed along with thousands of National Guard troops. 'With stability returning to Los Angeles, the Secretary has directed the redeployment of the 700 Marines whose presence sent a clear message: lawlessness will not be tolerated,' chief Pentagon spokesman SEAN PARNELL said in a statement. IT'S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes LAYING DOWN THE LAW: A watershed cyber law is set to expire this fall, and lawmakers have yet to make the necessary moves to keep it on the books, our colleagues at Morning Cyber report (for Pros!). The 2015 Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act, which uses legal safeguards to incentivize sharing information on cyber threats between the private sector and government, sunsets on Sept. 30. But despite its popularity and urging from the private sector to renew it, there's been little action to date on the Hill. 'The time to begin discussing and circulating potential changes to CISA 2015 was six months ago, if not earlier,' complained Rep. BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.), the top Democrat on the House Homeland Security Committee. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Chair RAND PAUL (R-Ky.), who opposed the initial law, hasn't signaled the renewal is a priority for him. House Homeland Chair MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) just resigned from Congress, but Rep. ANDREW GARBARINO (R-N.Y.), who is running to succeed him and chairs the cyber subpanel, has vowed to renew the law if he wins the gavel. The Complex BRASS TACKS: Several nominees for top military posts head to Capitol Hill this week to make their case, as pressure from Trump to have these roles filled by summer intensifies. The nominee to lead U.S. Africa Command, Air Force Lt. Gen. DAGVIN ANDERSON, and the pick to head up Special Operations Command, Navy Vice Adm. FRANK BRADLEY, face the Senate Armed Services Committee at a confirmation hearing on Tuesday. Trump's pick for chief of naval operations, Adm. DARYL CAUDLE, is set to testify at a long-awaited hearing Thursday after the Navy's last top officer, Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI, was fired in February. Most military promotions are confirmed with little trouble, and large swaths are typically approved just before Congress breaks for August. But Trump in a Truth Social post this weekend urged Majority Leader JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) to cancel the chamber's August recess and 'long weekends' so senators can get his nominees confirmed. The tension there will largely be with his civilian nominees, a roster that includes 17 picks for Pentagon posts awaiting confirmation votes on the Senate floor. On the Hill EYE ON ARMS EXPORTS: House Foreign Affairs meets tomorrow to consider eight bills — some that could streamline U.S. arms exports and foreign military sales overseas, potentially unlocking faster deals. It's wonky, but it impacts partners abroad and the multibillion-dollar defense trade. Rep. MICHAEL BAUMGARTNER (R-Wash.) proposal would require the State Department to decide on export licenses within 45 days for trusted allies and 60 days for others — a shift from today's process under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, which sets no deadlines. Partners in Europe and Asia have long complained of bureaucratic bottlenecks. The bill would compel State to publish an annual list of allies who qualify for fast-track approvals. Another bill, the Missile Technology Control Revision Act from Rep. BILL HUIZENGA (R-Mich.), would amend the Arms Export Control Act to eliminate the MTCR's 'presumption of denial' for certain exports. Australia and the U.K. — both AUKUS pact partners — would be treated like NATO and non-NATO allies. That could ease exports of 'Category 1' drones — which can carry payloads over 1,100 pounds or fly more than 186 miles — subject to the strictest restrictions. Broadsides GROWING GAZA FRUSTRATIONS: A spate of Western leaders are calling for the immediate end to the war in Gaza following a controversial Israeli military strike on the enclave's only Catholic church and the killing of Palestinians trying to receive humanitarian aid. France, Italy, Japan, Australia, Canada, Denmark and other countries today condemned the killing of more than 800 Palestinians, describing Israel's actions as the 'drip feeding of aid and the inhumane killing of civilians.' That followed comments from Belgian King PHILIPPE urging Europe to 'show stronger leadership' and backing a call from U.N. Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES for an immediate ceasefire. POPE LEO XIV too demanded an end to the 'barbarity' of the war in Gaza while delivering remarks at the papal summer palace of Castel Gandolfo. International pressure on Israel has mounted in recent weeks. A group of progressive leaders from twenty countries gathered in Bogotá and called for a global arms embargo. Israel, for its part, has pushed back on the calls for it to end its war effort. In a post on X, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said the statement from the group countries 'is disconnected from reality and sends the wrong message to Hamas.' Transitions — Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee have made some staff moves, NatSec Daily has learned. AMY ENGLISH has been promoted to deputy staff director for Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Formerly, she was Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN's foreign policy advisor in the personal office and worked at the British Embassy. Meanwhile, MEGAN BARTLEY, a longtime committee staffer and counsel, took over as chief counsel to committee Democrats earlier this year. With the decision earlier this year to name NAZ DURAKOGLU as Democratic staff director, that means the Foreign Relations Committee is the only Senate committee with an all-female leadership team. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies named JERRY MCGINN the inaugural director of its new Center for the Industrial Base, formerly known as the Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group. McGinn was the principal deputy director in DOD's Office of Manufacturing and Industrial Base Policy. He established and led the Baroni Center for Government Contracting at George Mason University, serving as its executive director since 2018. — Lt. Gen. SHAWN BRATTON has been nominated to succeed Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. MICHAEL GUETLEIN, who was confirmed to lead the Golden Dome program. Bratton is currently the deputy chief of space operations for strategy, plans, programs, and requirements. — Gen. THOMAS BUSSIERE, now head of Air Force Global Strike Command, has been nominated to be vice chief of staff for the Air Force. The service's No. 2 job has been without a Senate-confirmed officer since Gen. JAMES SLIFE was dismissed in February. — ADHAM SAHLOUL is now senior adviser and coordinator of the newly launched North Star Policy Initiative. Sahloul previously was a special adviser at the Pentagon and USAID under President Joe Biden. What to Read — Amy Mackinnon, POLITICO: Vodka Toasts With the Dictator of Belarus: How Diplomacy Gets Done in Trump 2.0 — Mat Youkee, Americas Quarterly: U.S. Pressure on Huawei Reaches New Heights in Panama — Antonia Hitchens, The New Yorker: Donald Trump's Tariff Dealmaker-in-Chief Tomorrow Today — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: Nominations — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: Nomination of Jason Evans to be an undersecretary of State for management — House Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Fully Operational: Stuxnet 15 Years Later and the Evolution of Cyber Threats to Critical Infrastructure — Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: The Resilience of the Israeli Economy in Times of War — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10:30 a.m.: Virtual discussion on 'the challenges in Europe and Africa.' — Heritage Foundation, 10:30 a.m.: 2025 B.C. Lee Lecture on 'U.S. Engagement with China' with Rep. JOHN MOOLENAAR (R-Mich.) — Institute of World Politics, 12 p.m.: A Solution for the Kurdish Conflict in Iran: Federalism or Secession? — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 2 p.m.: Getting to a Pragmatic Cuba Policy for the United States — Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, 2 p.m.: 'What new geopolitical shifts mean for the South Caucasus,' focusing on Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. — Senate Foreign Relations Western Hemisphere, Transnational Crime, Civilian Security, Democracy, Human Rights, and Global Women's Issues Subcommittee, 2:30 p.m.: The Status of Democracy and Human Rights in Hong Kong, Five Years After the PRC's (People's Republic of China) Judicial Takeover Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Katherine Long, who view Eric as an illegitimate leader of this newsletter.
Politico
11-07-2025
- Business
- Politico
RIFs come to roost at State
With help from Joe Gould, Phelim Kine, Felicia Schwartz and Zach Montellaro Subscribe here | Email Eric The State Department proceeded with long-expected staff cuts this morning, making good on one part of Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO's pledge to overhaul Foggy Bottom and root out what he alleges is inefficiency. As the secretary wrapped up his trip to Asia, employees received individual layoff notices signed by Global Talent Management chief LEW OLOWSKI, per State Department officials and staffers and documents seen by NatSec Daily. The full implications won't be clear for a while, but your hosts have a few takeaways: First, the number of actual cuts is lower than many expected. It'd been thought that more than 2,000 State Department employees would get pink slips, including 750 Foreign Service officers. According to an internal State Department memo, 1,107 civil servants and 246 foreign service officers were laid off today. That difference may be because so many State Department staff took advantage of the deferred resignation program. Overall, around 3,000 members of the workforce will be leaving, the memo said, suggesting more than 1,800 State Department employees opted to voluntarily depart. As expected, the bureaus hit hardest by the cuts included Energy Resources; Democracy, Human Rights and Labor; Population, Refugees and Migration; and Consular Affairs. So too were offices managing foreign assistance programs. But the staff reductions also affected more management divisions than initially expected. Notices went out to staff in the Bureau of Diplomatic Technology, the Bureau of the Comptroller and Global Financial Services, and the offices running the Foreign Service Internship Program and prestigious fellowships such as the Pickering, to name a few. Even some sections of the State Department that U.S. law requires be staffed — such as the Office of the Coordinator for Afghan Relocation Efforts — were hit with layoffs. AfghanEvac's SHAWN VANDIVER, a major advocate for the resettlement of Afghan refugees who helped the U.S. during 20-year U.S. operations in the country, said in a message to reporters today that State fired the current acting coordinator of the office. Vandiver noted that State must name a coordinator to comply with federal laws providing for the resettlement. Your hosts are hearing that many people who were pushed out were considered high performers or had specialized skills like speaking multiple difficult languages. That may be because the layoffs appeared partly based on which office the staffer was in, as opposed to their skills or work history. This has felt especially unfair to Foreign Service staffers, who rotate offices every few years. Some people may have also been notified incorrectly that they were being laid off. Some State Department staffers received messages from Olowski that they erroneously were given notices due to 'an administrative error,' per copies of the messages seen by NatSec Daily, and that they are not losing their jobs. That indicates that even State, which has conducted a relatively orderly purge of staff, may encounter more hiccups down the line, and the total number may be different. Moreover, it seems like Democrats and supporters of fired State Department employees — unable to exert any direct pain on the administration for the restructure — are replicating the playbook used to protest the elimination of the U.S. Agency for International Development. Ahead of the layoff, Democratic members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee called the move 'illegal' even after the Supreme Court green-lighted the cuts. This afternoon, Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) will also join former State Department officials for a 'clap out' of fired employees. Finally, emotions, understandably, are raw within the department and are likely to stay that way for a while. Staffers weren't shy about expressing how they felt 'jerked around' by a leadership team they accuse of putting political interests above national interests. 'We are being run by incompetent, nihilistic, right-wing Maoists,' a fired staffer said. The staffer, like others NatSec Daily spoke to, was granted anonymity out of fear of further reprisals. At least one flier was posted in restrooms around the State Department urging remaining colleagues to 'resist fascism' and to 'remember the oath you vowed to uphold.' For its part, the State Department is defending the layoffs. At a press briefing today, spokesperson TAMMY BRUCE said cuts were made accounting for 'extensive feedback,' and she reiterated department leadership's commitment to the tens of thousands of employees who remain. In an X post, she also said the layoffs were necessary to 'make our work more efficient, nimble, and effective — making America safer, stronger and more prosperous.' The Inbox CRINK CLUES: Ukraine's military intelligence chief warned today that North Korea is now supplying as much as 40 percent of the ammunition Russia is using in its invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg's Daryna Krasnolutska and Olesia Safronova report. And that's not the only major contribution North Korea is making to the Russian war effort. In an interview with the outlet, KYRYLO BUDANOV said that North Korean leader KIM JONG UN is providing Moscow with ballistic missiles and artillery systems in exchange for cash and technology that's easing Pyongyang's international isolation. It's a sign of the deepening partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow. And it comes as the U.S. teases some major action on Ukraine. President DONALD TRUMP said today 'you'll be seeing things happen' on Monday. That followed an interview late Thursday with NBC News in which Trump suggested a deal was in place with NATO to provide Ukraine with Patriot missiles. MIGRANTS FOR BETTER RELATIONS? The Trump administration is indeed asking African nations to accept deportees from Venezuela as a way to improve relations with Washington, Nigeria's top diplomat said today. Per Reuters' Macdonald Dzirutwe, Nigerian Foreign Minister YUSUF TUGGAR told Nigerian television stations that 'the U.S. is mounting considerable pressure on African countries to accept Venezuelans to be deported from the U.S., some straight out of prison.' Tuggar also cautioned that Nigeria wasn't in a position to accommodate the U.S. request given its current domestic challenges. Tuggar's comments follow reports from The Wall Street Journal that the president asked the leaders of Mauritania, Gabon, Senegal, Guinea-Bissau and Liberia at a lunch in Washington on Wednesday whether they would accept deportees from the United States. And it's the latest sign of an increasing quid pro quo which countries beyond the Western Hemisphere are considering taking migrants as a way to appease Trump. Related: Global leaders' 'daddy' strategy: Flatter Trump to get close to the US by our colleague Nicole Markus BAD NUMBERS FOR DEMOCRATS: A poll from liberal-leaning group National Security Action contains some worrying numbers for Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms: Voters aren't keen on the Trump administration's national security blunders, but they don't have much confidence in Democrats either. The poll finds that 58 percent of voters see Democrats in Congress as weak when it comes to U.S. national security. By contrast, just 45 percent of voters said the same of Trump. That disparity comes from the fact a large number of voters surveyed said they don't think Democrats are doing enough to stand up to Trump on national security issues. The poll by firm Hart Research surveyed 1,519 voters June 10-25 and has a 3 percent margin of error. Those numbers indicate that Democrats have a lot of convincing to do ahead of the 2026 midterms and the 2028 general election on their national security strategy. But it also suggests a potential opportunity, given that plenty of Trump's foreign policy moves aren't popular. Forty-nine percent of voters said the president is making America less safe. And large majorities said they opposed firing women military officers and military officers of color from major leadership positions and purging intelligence analysts at odds with Trump's ideological direction. Voters also disapproved of Trump's handling of the war in Ukraine and his threats to seize Greenland and make Canada a U.S. state. RUBIO TEASES TRUMP-XI MEETING: Rubio emerged from his meeting with China's Foreign Minister WANG YI on the sidelines of the ASEAN East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur touting a looming summit in China between Trump and Chinese leader XI JINPING, our own Phelim Kine writes in. 'It's a visit he wants to undertake, and so we'll work on finding the right date for that, but I'm sure it'll happen because both presidents want it to happen,' Rubio told reporters today. Trump, the consummate self-styled dealmaker, has repeatedly stated his interest in meeting with Xi as a way to fast-track a U.S.-China trade deal. The Chinese leader resisted those overtures until he invited Trump to visit China during a call between the two leaders last month. Rubio didn't specify the timing for a possible Trump-Xi meeting but said 'the odds are high' that it will happen if the two sides can 'build the right atmosphere and the right deliverables,' per a separate State Department statement. That refers to ongoing efforts to resolve U.S.-China trade frictions that peaked in April when the two countries imposed triple-digit tariffs on each other's imports, effectively shutting down trade between the two countries. U.S.-China trade negotiators are now scrambling to seal a trade deal for lower tariffs and an easing on export restrictions by an Aug. 12 deadline. The earliest possible timing for a meeting between the two leaders is early September. Read: Rubio's 36-Hour Trip to Asia Left U.S. Allies Wanting More by The Wall Street Journal's Vera Bergengruen and Chun Han Wong DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring CHRISTOPHER LE MON, founder of strategic consulting firm Boulder Bridge Global who served as a deputy assistant secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor during the Biden administration. Le Mon tells us he's partial to a porter when he imbibes and named Black Butte, Right Proper Brewing's Häxan and Deschutes as his go-tos. 'Today, given the outrageous RIFs at State of my former colleagues, I'm pouring one out for the talent and commitment in DRL and across the department that the Trump administration is showing the door,' Le Mon said. We suspect you won't be alone this weekend, Christopher. IT'S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes CYBERCOM 'CHAOS': First-term Rep. EUGENE VINDMAN (D-Va.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee's cyber panel, is on the hunt for answers on whether the agency briefly paused operations involving Russia earlier this year — and if so, why. Vindman told our colleague Maggie Miller in today's Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) that he's worried by what he labeled 'chaos' at the command, which has been without a Senate-confirmed leader since Trump fired commander Gen. TIMOTHY HAUGH in April and has seen a departure of top talent. 'It's a tremendous amount of chaos and disorder throughout the department, throughout the national security establishment, the cuts to personnel, the lack of coordination on mission,' Vindman said. Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH denied this occurred when he testified at House Armed Services. But Cyber Subcommittee Chair DON BACON (R-Neb.) said during a subcommittee hearing in May that he looked into the issue and confirmed there had been a one-day pause, which he called 'typical for negotiations.' The Complex SERVICES MAKE THEIR LISTS: The military services and combatant commands have outlined more than $48 billion in priorities that didn't make the cut for the Pentagon's budget request. The lists of unfunded priorities, which comes as lawmakers advance their annual defense spending and policy bills, show how the military would spend extra dollars and shape congressional additions to the final budget, our colleagues report in Morning Defense (for Pros!). This year's lists are especially striking, given the Trump administration's flat budget request — effectively a cut after inflation — relying on more than $150 billion from the GOP's megabill to boost spending. More munitions are a top priority for many services. The Air Force's $10 billion list is led by $4.15 billion for munitions, such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM and the Joint Advanced Tactical Missile. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's whopping $11.8 billion wish list includes nearly $1 billion to fund standoff weapons and maritime strike munitions to deter China. The lists also propose funding to buy more aircraft. The Marine Corps is seeking more CH-53K King Stallions, F-35C fighters, KC-130Js and MQ-9A Reaper drones. And the National Guard has proposed over $1 billion for aircraft, including nine F-15EXs and six F-35s. On the Hill SENATORS MOVE TO RESTRICT TROOP REDUCTIONS: Bipartisan defense legislation approved this week by the Senate Armed Services Committee would throw up roadblocks should the Trump administration push to shrink the U.S. military footprint in Europe or on the Korean Peninsula. The National Defense Authorization Act blocks a reduction in U.S. force posture in Europe, or giving up the role of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, until the Pentagon assesses the impact of those moves and certifies that doing so is in the national interest. The pushback follows warnings from Senate Armed Services Chair ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) and House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) against major shakeups to U.S. posture abroad without congressional buy-in, amid reports the Pentagon had eyed stepping back from NATO leadership in Europe and other moves. Rogers' version of the NDAA, set for a committee vote next week, also stymies a potential European drawdown. The Senate defense bill also features similar restrictions on drawing down U.S. force posture on the Korean Peninsula or changing wartime operational control over the Combined Forces Command. BUDGET BOOST: Senators also are using their defense policy bill to endorse a $32 billion hike to the defense budget, following through on criticism from Wicker and other defense hawks that the Trump administration's plan — keeping the Pentagon budget static while relying on $150 billion from Republicans' megabill to boost military programs — isn't enough to modernize and keep pace with China. That sets up a clash with the House, where GOP leaders stuck to the administration's overarching defense budget plans in both their NDAA and appropriations bill. Though the Senate Armed Services move is a key signal of support for more Pentagon funding, appropriators, who actually provide the money, will need to follow suit. There's a decent chance Sen. MITCH McCONNELL (R-Ky.), who now chairs the Senate Defense Appropriations panel and has criticized Trump's defense budget, will follow suit in his own bill. Broadsides DRAGGED AWAY: A prominent conservative group is praising the Pentagon for pulling Rear Adm. MICHAEL DONNELLY's promotion to vice admiral amid criticism of drag shows held aboard the USS Ronald Reagan during his command. The move came after Hegseth withdrew Donnelly's nomination in mid-June to lead the Navy's 7th Fleet, based in Japan, following his Senate confirmation. The Pentagon has said Hegseth is seeking a replacement for the key Pacific command. It's the latest example of the Trump administration's efforts to root out any overtures to the LGBTQ+ community within the ranks of the U.S. military. DOD Watch Executive Director NICOLE KIPRILOV called the decision 'a positive development,' accusing Donnelly of allowing 'sanctioned drag shows (with cash prizes)' that undermined military professionalism. Kiprilov is a Republican operative and strategist, and the group describes itself as dedicated to highlighting 'woke' trends and seeking a return to what it calls traditional values. 'The U.S. military is not a stage for political or cultural experimentation,' Kiprilov said in a statement. 'Commanders will be held responsible for promoting activities that compromise the dignity and mission focus of our warfighting institutions.' Donnelly is a veteran naval flight officer and former commander of U.S. Naval Forces Korea, with decades of operational and policy experience. Criticism of Donnelly's leadership surfaced in conservative circles after a 2018 NBC News story spotlighted a sailor who performed in drag aboard the carrier as part of morale-boosting events. The Pentagon declined to explain its rationale for withdrawing Donnelly. Transitions — The Washington Post is adding TARA COPP as a Pentagon correspondent and NOAH ROBERTSON to cover congressional national security committees. Copp was most recently a national security reporter at the AP. Robertson most recently was a Pentagon correspondent for Defense News. — Career diplomat JULIE EADEH is tipped to be next U.S. consul-general in Hong Kong, per the South China Morning Post. Eadeh met with pro-democracy activists in 2019, in an episode which was used by pro-Beijing actors to substantiate claims of 'foreign powers' at work in the territory during protests at the time. What to Read — Patrick Kingsley, Ronen Bergman and Natan Odenheimer, The New York Times: How Netanyahu Prolonged the War in Gaza to Stay in Power — Courtney Albon, Defense News: Hegseth calls for extensive reforms to Pentagon drone-buying practices — Jessica Donati, Reuters: How a U.S. mission to push a Trump deal in Congo unravelled Monday Today — The Hudson Institute, 3:30 p.m.: Next Steps in US-China Great Power Competition with the House Republican Policy Committee — House Rules Committee, 4 p.m.: Meeting on Fiscal 2026 Defense Appropriations Bill Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who cause 'a tremendous amount of chaos and disorder' for this newsletter.
Politico
10-07-2025
- Business
- Politico
Tariffs top Trump's natsec toolbox
With help from Joe Gould, Dana Nickel, Chris Lunday and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Eric President DONALD TRUMP is repeatedly using threats of tariffs to pursue foreign policy and national security objectives, stretching the use of a tool once largely confined to handling economic issues. It's almost as if tariffs are the new sanctions. Consider Trump's announcement Wednesday that Brazil will face 50 percent tariffs. He made that threat in part because he's upset about how the current Brazilian government is treating former Brazilian President JAIR BOLSONARO, whose policies made him one of Trump's few global ideological allies. Bolsonaro faces charges of conspiring to lead a coup to overturn his 2022 election loss. Trump has also threatened tariffs related to areas he's declared as national security emergencies, such as on Colombia over its January refusal to take deportation flights and Canada and Mexico's supposed failures to combat the fentanyl crisis. And it's not just Trump. Lawmakers working on new ways to punish Russia for attacking Ukraine have a bill that includes steep tariffs alongside sanctions. Trump appears increasingly open to backing the bill, which has broad bipartisan support. Tariffs have always been a tool of U.S. statecraft, but they've historically been relegated to dealing with economic issues and trade disputes. The Biden administration used tariffs on China — alongside other instruments of economic statecraft such as sanctions and export controls — as a way to protect U.S. supply chains and critical economic secrets (Trump did the same in his first term). Sanctions, meanwhile, have long been the go-to lever to political and geostrategic questions running the gamut from a country's support for terrorism to its role in cyberattacks. When the U.S. imposes sanctions on a government or company or person, it generally means their U.S.-held financial assets are frozen and they cannot engage in any business transactions with Americans. Implementing tariffs doesn't necessarily cause the same pain to the targeted entities, and it can boomerang back on the U.S. For one thing, American consumers ultimately bear the brunt of tariffs through higher prices. Tariffs also encumber but don't restrict access to the U.S. market or financial system. Plus, if the tariffs on a trading partner are too steep, they can cause political headaches in the U.S. if consumer spending drops and businesses lose money. 'You look at Trump, in the spring, escalating tariffs on China at over 100 percent. I mean, it's not politically sustainable in the United States. Whereas if you compare that to sanctions, you impose sanctions on a kind of big foreign bank or company, that bank or company is going to suffer quite a bit, and it's not going to affect the U.S. very much at all,' said EDDIE FISHMAN, a former Obama administration State Department aide. Former State Department Deputy Chief Economist PHIL LUCK also warned that Trump's tariffs threats could incentivize other countries to reduce their economic dependence on the United States. But The Foundation for Defense of Democracies' ELAINE DEZENSKI told NatSec Daily that the strength of the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar gives Washington some wiggle room to use the kind of leverage tariffs offer against countries closely tied to the U.S. economy. It's also worth noting other countries are using tariffs more these days to address political disputes. The White House argues using tariffs as a constitutionally appropriate tool to advance his global goals. Spokesperson KUSH DESAI told NatSec Daily: 'President Trump is committed to using every tool at his disposal — including access to the American economy, the world's biggest and best consumer market — to put Americans and America First.' The Inbox NO RUSSIAN TO END THE WAR: Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO says he told Russian Foreign Minister SERGEI LAVROV today about Trump's 'disappointment and frustration' at the lack of progress in ending the Ukraine war but added that Moscow had offered 'a new and a different approach' to the road ahead. 'There were some ideas exchanged today, some viewpoints that they expressed to us that I'll take back to the president for his consideration, and hopefully it will lead to something,' Rubio told reporters, declining to offer details while stressing that he didn't want to 'over-promise' results. Rubio met with Lavrov in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on the sidelines of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting. The top U.S. diplomat said he's told the Russians that Trump may back new sanctions on Russia proposed by lawmakers if there isn't progress on talks. A UK-FRANCE NUKE DEAL: Britain and France unveiled a number of new defense agreements today, including one in which they pledge to coordinate their nuclear defenses in the event of a major threat to the European continent. The effort to strengthen Paris-London ties is driven in part by both countries' worries about whether the U.S. is a reliable defense partner, especially under Trump. As our own Clea Caulcutt and Esther Webber report, the agreements will also cover plans to develop advanced anti-drone weapons and a new cruise missile to replace the Storm Shadow/SCALP. TERROR GRANT DELAYS: U.S. states seeking grants to help prevent terrorist attacks say the Federal Emergency Management Agency is two months late in posting new guidelines for applications, The New York Times reports. The new guidelines are expected to reflect demands that states comply with Trump administration priorities such as immigration enforcement, but would-be applicants can do little to prepare their submissions until they see the details. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — 'RIGHTS' AND WRONGS: State Department officials are wrestling with how to publicly present Rubio's vision for human rights programs now that he's downsizing the bureau that focuses on that topic. Nahal obtained one set of draft talking points circulating on the topic. It is a bundle of contradictions. For example, the draft states that Rubio believes in 'a vision of universal human rights that puts the flourishing of human persons and the myriad communities we form at the center of our foreign, trade and national security policies.' But that doesn't appear to include the transgender community. The draft trashes previous Democratic presidents for allegedly trying to 'bully countries into accepting so-called transgender rights and suppressing dissent by parents, religious groups, professionals and political parties.' The document contains several errors of fact and omits key context on everything from how the U.S. has financed humanitarian aid to what is covered by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, a document it says the Trump administration supports. It also promotes the much-debated notion of 'ordered liberty.' The draft talking points say: 'The progressive left conflates the concept of 'freedom' with the unfettered ability of individuals to accomplish any act of the will, including things that clearly demolish freedom like legalized recreational drugs, abortion, the mutilation of the genitals of children who express any form of gender confusion and more. To the contrary: We live in a nation where the concept of 'ordered liberty' means that in 'order to form a more perfect union,' we must establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity.' In response to a request for comment from the State Department, a senior department official replied: 'Thousands of documents pass through the State Department for a clearance process. Many are never finalized nor approved. The only official messaging documents used would have to be fully approved.' The person was granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes SPIDER TRAPPED: Four people were arrested this morning in Britain by the National Crime Agency on allegations they were involved in ransomware attacks against various companies. It marks the first arrests of people believed to be affiliated with the prolific hacking group known as Scattered Spider since it began attacking U.S. and U.K. targets earlier this year after going on hiatus for unclear reasons last summer. U.S. federal agencies and the cybersecurity industry have linked Scattered Spider to attacks on U.S. retailers, aviation businesses and global insurance companies. The group is alleged to have infiltrated more than 100 businesses since 2022. The people arrested today are suspected of targeting U.K. retailers. According to the NCA, the suspects are a 19-year-old British man, a 17-year-old British man, a 20-year-old British woman and a 19-year-old Latvian man. The NCA said their electronic devices were seized for digital forensic analysis. The Complex GERMANS WANT MORE JETS: The German government is planning to buy another 15 F-35 fighter jets from the U.S., our European colleagues report (for Pros!). The talks between Washington and Berlin are sensitive given tensions within Europe over future defense cooperation. France and Germany have had a recent rumble over French industrial demands related to the Future Combat Air System, Europe's flagship next-generation fighter jet program. If the F-35 deal goes through, it would put Germany's planned fleet of the jets at 50. On the Hill FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CORNYN'S LEGISLATIVE DUO: Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) is introducing two bills to address challenges in prosecuting spies and efforts to boost bilateral cooperation with Mexico on the drug trade. He's teaming up with fellow Senate Intelligence Committee members JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) and MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) to introduce a bill that would eliminate the statute of limitations for crimes such as gathering or delivering classified information to aid foreign governments. The goal is to aid federal prosecutors in their efforts to hold accused spies and foreign agents accountable. The Texas Republican is also joining forces with Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.) on a bill that would direct the office of the director of national intelligence to prepare an action plan to boost counternarcotics cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico, given the focus within the intelligence community now on combating the global drug trade. Both bills could face good odds to become law. Fentanyl and counternarcotics remains a bipartisan priority and the intelligence crimes bill has the backing of influential members of the select Senate panel. Broadsides RIF-RAFF AT STATE: Democrats on Capitol Hill are sounding the alarm about the State Department's decision to move ahead with staff cuts in Foggy Bottom this week in the wake of a court ruling. The Supreme Court ruled earlier this week that the administration could proceed with widespread staff cuts across federal agencies. In line with that ruling, long-anticipated staff cuts at State are expected to materialize Friday, per State Department officials who spoke to NatSec Daily. We granted them granted anonymity because of the risk of reprisal from State Department leadership. The top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN of New Hampshire, argued to our own Joe Gould the cuts were arbitrary. She said the planned staff layoff is 'very distressing and undermines our national security and the ability of American businesses to operate overseas.' The administration is defending the cuts. 'We took a very deliberate step to reorganize the State Department to be more efficient and more focused,' Rubio argued today. 'That's been publicly noticed to Congress months ago; we've been prepared to implement it.' Not everyone on Capitol Hill is distraught at Rubio's moves. When asked if he had a message for State Department employees, Senate Foreign Relations Chair JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) told Joe that Rubio is 'working really hard to make that operation more efficient and respond better to the priorities that we in congress have and that the administration has — that is an agency that is managed by the second branch of government.' IRAN HEADS UP: The State Department is really really warning Americans not to travel to Iran at this moment. The department is launching an awareness campaign with videos from former Iranian detainees and warnings on the State Department website. And it's putting the stakes in stark terms. Among the guidance a State Department spokesperson offered today is for travelers still interested in going to Iran to leave a will, a power of attorney and DNA samples in case they are needed. The spokesperson also said travelers should establish a 'proof of life protocol' to rule out potential abduction hoaxes. Transitions — Ukrainian Defense Minister RUSTEM UMEROV is the leading contender to be Kyiv's next ambassador to the United States, Ukraine President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said today at a recovery conference for Ukraine in Rome. Umerov, a close ally of Zelenskyy, will replace OKSANA MARKAROVA, who has fallen out of favor with Republicans over her role in a controversial 2024 visit by the Ukrainian president to a Scranton munition plant with Democratic lawmakers up for reelection. — Rubio isn't the only Cabinet member wearing multiple NatSec hats these days. Transportation Secretary SEAN DUFFY will be interim NASA administrator, Trump announced last night. — Trump tapped Australian-born 'alpha male' MAGA commentator NICK ADAMS to be U.S. ambassador to Malaysia. — NICHOLAS RAINERI is joining TSG Advocates as head of the firm's national security portfolio. He most recently was a senior adviser in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. — RYAN FIORESI will be executive director of the U.S. office of the International Campaign for Tibet. He most recently was the senior adviser on Tibetan issues in the State Department's Office of the Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights. — Meridian International Center has added JIM GOLSEN as vice president of the Center for Corporate Diplomacy and KELLEE WICKER as vice president for technology, innovation and space. Golden previously was deputy director general at the Commerce Department. Wicker previously was director of the science and technology innovation program at the Wilson Center. What to Read — Chris Buckley, The New York Times: China Surveys Seabeds Where Naval Rivals May One Day Clash — Makena Kelly and Vittoria Elliott, Wired: This is DOGE 2.0 — Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend and Kate Townsend, Foreign Affairs: How Russia Could Exploit a Vacuum in Europe — Barney Jopson, Financial Times: Spain's Pedro Sánchez fights for his political life Tomorrow Today — National Institute for Deterrence Studies, 10 a.m.: Arms Control is Not Dead Yet — Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: The Han Kuang Exercise and the Taiwanese Military's Road to Readiness Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Ester Wells, who should also face steep tariffs on the grounds of national security.
Politico
27-06-2025
- Science
- Politico
Elon's starship problem
With help from Eric Bazail-Eimil and Joe Gould WELCOME TO POLITICO PRO SPACE. This week saw the first images from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, and the photos are stunning. Scroll down to our photo of the week for my favorite pic, and read through for the latest on Starship; a legal challenge to SpaceX; and a possible NASA reorganization. Email me at sskove@ with tips, pitches and feedback, and find me on X at @samuelskove. And remember, we're offering this newsletter for free over the next few weeks. After that, it will be available only to POLITICO Pro subscribers. Read all about it here. The Spotlight It's been a no good, very bad last six months for Elon Musk's Starship — leading to some dissatisfaction in Congress and raising questions as to whether SpaceX's 'fail fast' philosophy is simply failing. The 403-foot, totally reusable rocket could dramatically slash the cost of putting satellites into orbit, and one day might serve to transport humans on long-distance space missions, including to Mars. But the rocket has failed in all four of its last test flights. In January, the rocket began vibrating mid-flight, leading to fuel leaks and an enormous mid-air explosion. A March flight was cut short due to engine failure, while a May flight lost control entirely. In June, Starship did not even make it into the air — a pressurized tank failed while the rocket was still on the ground, leading to an explosion. Getting the rocket flying is just step one — the company must also successfully refuel the rocket in space for the first time in history, as part of a contracted NASA mission to the moon. NASA has already committed $2.9 billion out of a potential $4.5 billion to the rocket. Color me skeptical: Some in Congress are not happy with the progress made so far. The failures are 'very concerning,' given the money already spent on the rocket, said a House committee aide, granted anonymity to discuss the issue. Without more data on the causes of the failures, it's hard to know if the problems indicate a company in chaos or whether they are a predictable part of the challenging rocket design process. Some of the failures, though, are repeats of problems experienced with past SpaceX rocket iterations. Pressurized tank failures occurred on a different rocket in 2015 and 2016, and SpaceX's second launch ever — back in 2007 — likewise failed due to the rocket vibrating during flight. Two former SpaceX engineers, granted anonymity to speak freely about past rocket launches, said they saw the failures as a likely cause for concern. 'Blowing up on the pad because the [nitrogen tank] failed — there is no good way to spin that one,' one engineer said. One possible explanation for the repeat rocket problems could be personnel leaving or transferring within SpaceX, which would lead to a loss of institutional knowledge, said Dan Dumbacher, a former NASA official. Comeback kid: Musk has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat before, pulling off a successful launch of his first rocket after three failed attempts back in 2008. As the world's richest man, he can also bankroll continued launches and, thanks to a Federal Aviation Administration ruling, has regulatory approval for as many as 25 Starship launches per year. Some in Congress have signaled they're withholding judgment — for now. The 'process necessarily entails trial and error,' said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who chairs the committee that oversees NASA and commercial space regulation. SpaceX's ability to transfer reams of test data from failed rockets utilizing the company's Starlink satellite networks, moreover, means that each crash is a significant learning opportunity, said Jan Osburg, senior engineer focusing on aerospace at the RAND corporation. 'They can push a huge amount of real time data of their prototype in flight,' he said. 'I'm sure the folks at SpaceX are all over this and going through everything with a fine tooth comb after every failure,' he added. Galactic Government YOU'VE BEEN SERVED: Add one more tally to the list of Elon Musk's woes — Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is preparing a lawsuit against SpaceX over debris and 'pollution' from the company's recent rocket launches. At a Wednesday morning press conference, the Mexican leader told reporters that the Mexican government's lawsuit is tied to rocket launches that have caused 'security and environmental' impacts on Mexican territory. The suit is not tied specifically to the recent explosion of SpaceX's Starship rocket, Sheinbaum explained, and will also address the general effects of launches on the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, which partially borders the company's Texas launch sites. The government, she said, 'is doing a general review of which international laws are potentially being violated and from there, we will initiate a lawsuit, because in effect there is contamination.' What next: The timing of the potential lawsuit is unclear, as is the potential viability of the suit. Mexico could directly sue SpaceX under Article Three, section two of the Constitution, which allows courts to hear cases brought by foreign states, said Joel Graham, a partner at law firm Meeks, Butera and Israel. Another option might be to bring a claim against the United States under the 1972 Liability Convention, which makes countries liable for damage caused by their launches. The simplest way for Mexico to bring action against SpaceX would be for a private citizen — a Mexican rancher, for example — to make a claim against the company for any damage to their property, Graham said. NASA Update Work force shake-up: NASA is considering a redesign of how its top-level of leadership operates, NASA acting administrator Janet Petro said Wednesday in an agency town-hall meeting, according to audio obtained by your host. Currently, NASA headquarters leads the work of mission directorates, which are organized around key goals, like science or human space exploration. These directorates are then supported by field centers, including Johnson Space Center in Texas — which focuses on human space flight — and Kennedy Space Center, the agency's main rocket launch site. One of three possible plans under consideration would see the agency organized around its field centers. A second plan would be to continue organizing NASA under mission directorates. And a third plan would focus on NASA's 'product lines' according to Petro, who did not specify what she meant. Petro said a final plan would be announced in weeks. NASA is separately considering splitting up functions done at headquarters and sending those jobs to its field centers, Petro said, and as I previously reported. Why it matters: Minimizing, or even potentially removing mission directorates in favor of NASA's centers could streamline NASA operations and theoretically drive faster progress toward goals like human space flight — a key goal of President Donald Trump. The Reading Room NASA tested a new SLS booster that may never fly, and the end of it blew off: Ars Technica Pentagon to consider SpaceX alternative for Space Force satellite program: SpaceNews New NATO commercial space strategy seeks to prompt more investment: Breaking Defense ispace Blames Faulty Hardware for Failed Lunar Landing: Payload Four astronauts launch to the space station as NASA grapples with strange twist in leak issue: CNN Event Horizon TUESDAY: The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies holds a virtual discussion on 'resilient, persistent space sensing.' The Federal Communications Commission holds a virtual meeting of a working group covering satellite and space science services. WEDNESDAY: The Intelligence and National Security Alliance will hold a leadership dinner with the US Space Force's Gen. Michael Guetlein. Making Moves Will Boyington is now associate administrator for comms at NASA. He previously was director of external comms at Blue Origin.
