Tariffs top Trump's natsec toolbox

Politico

10-07-2025

With help from Joe Gould, Dana Nickel, Chris Lunday and Daniel Lippman
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President DONALD TRUMP is repeatedly using threats of tariffs to pursue foreign policy and national security objectives, stretching the use of a tool once largely confined to handling economic issues.
It's almost as if tariffs are the new sanctions.
Consider Trump's announcement Wednesday that Brazil will face 50 percent tariffs. He made that threat in part because he's upset about how the current Brazilian government is treating former Brazilian President JAIR BOLSONARO, whose policies made him one of Trump's few global ideological allies. Bolsonaro faces charges of conspiring to lead a coup to overturn his 2022 election loss.
Trump has also threatened tariffs related to areas he's declared as national security emergencies, such as on Colombia over its January refusal to take deportation flights and Canada and Mexico's supposed failures to combat the fentanyl crisis.
And it's not just Trump. Lawmakers working on new ways to punish Russia for attacking Ukraine have a bill that includes steep tariffs alongside sanctions. Trump appears increasingly open to backing the bill, which has broad bipartisan support.
Tariffs have always been a tool of U.S. statecraft, but they've historically been relegated to dealing with economic issues and trade disputes. The Biden administration used tariffs on China — alongside other instruments of economic statecraft such as sanctions and export controls — as a way to protect U.S. supply chains and critical economic secrets (Trump did the same in his first term).
Sanctions, meanwhile, have long been the go-to lever to political and geostrategic questions running the gamut from a country's support for terrorism to its role in cyberattacks. When the U.S. imposes sanctions on a government or company or person, it generally means their U.S.-held financial assets are frozen and they cannot engage in any business transactions with Americans.
Implementing tariffs doesn't necessarily cause the same pain to the targeted entities, and it can boomerang back on the U.S. For one thing, American consumers ultimately bear the brunt of tariffs through higher prices. Tariffs also encumber but don't restrict access to the U.S. market or financial system. Plus, if the tariffs on a trading partner are too steep, they can cause political headaches in the U.S. if consumer spending drops and businesses lose money.
'You look at Trump, in the spring, escalating tariffs on China at over 100 percent. I mean, it's not politically sustainable in the United States. Whereas if you compare that to sanctions, you impose sanctions on a kind of big foreign bank or company, that bank or company is going to suffer quite a bit, and it's not going to affect the U.S. very much at all,' said EDDIE FISHMAN, a former Obama administration State Department aide.
Former State Department Deputy Chief Economist PHIL LUCK also warned that Trump's tariffs threats could incentivize other countries to reduce their economic dependence on the United States.
But The Foundation for Defense of Democracies' ELAINE DEZENSKI told NatSec Daily that the strength of the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar gives Washington some wiggle room to use the kind of leverage tariffs offer against countries closely tied to the U.S. economy. It's also worth noting other countries are using tariffs more these days to address political disputes.
The White House argues using tariffs as a constitutionally appropriate tool to advance his global goals. Spokesperson KUSH DESAI told NatSec Daily: 'President Trump is committed to using every tool at his disposal — including access to the American economy, the world's biggest and best consumer market — to put Americans and America First.'
The Inbox
NO RUSSIAN TO END THE WAR: Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO says he told Russian Foreign Minister SERGEI LAVROV today about Trump's 'disappointment and frustration' at the lack of progress in ending the Ukraine war but added that Moscow had offered 'a new and a different approach' to the road ahead.
'There were some ideas exchanged today, some viewpoints that they expressed to us that I'll take back to the president for his consideration, and hopefully it will lead to something,' Rubio told reporters, declining to offer details while stressing that he didn't want to 'over-promise' results.
Rubio met with Lavrov in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on the sidelines of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting. The top U.S. diplomat said he's told the Russians that Trump may back new sanctions on Russia proposed by lawmakers if there isn't progress on talks.
A UK-FRANCE NUKE DEAL: Britain and France unveiled a number of new defense agreements today, including one in which they pledge to coordinate their nuclear defenses in the event of a major threat to the European continent.
The effort to strengthen Paris-London ties is driven in part by both countries' worries about whether the U.S. is a reliable defense partner, especially under Trump. As our own Clea Caulcutt and Esther Webber report, the agreements will also cover plans to develop advanced anti-drone weapons and a new cruise missile to replace the Storm Shadow/SCALP.
TERROR GRANT DELAYS: U.S. states seeking grants to help prevent terrorist attacks say the Federal Emergency Management Agency is two months late in posting new guidelines for applications, The New York Times reports.
The new guidelines are expected to reflect demands that states comply with Trump administration priorities such as immigration enforcement, but would-be applicants can do little to prepare their submissions until they see the details.
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — 'RIGHTS' AND WRONGS: State Department officials are wrestling with how to publicly present Rubio's vision for human rights programs now that he's downsizing the bureau that focuses on that topic. Nahal obtained one set of draft talking points circulating on the topic. It is a bundle of contradictions.
For example, the draft states that Rubio believes in 'a vision of universal human rights that puts the flourishing of human persons and the myriad communities we form at the center of our foreign, trade and national security policies.' But that doesn't appear to include the transgender community. The draft trashes previous Democratic presidents for allegedly trying to 'bully countries into accepting so-called transgender rights and suppressing dissent by parents, religious groups, professionals and political parties.'
The document contains several errors of fact and omits key context on everything from how the U.S. has financed humanitarian aid to what is covered by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, a document it says the Trump administration supports.
It also promotes the much-debated notion of 'ordered liberty.' The draft talking points say: 'The progressive left conflates the concept of 'freedom' with the unfettered ability of individuals to accomplish any act of the will, including things that clearly demolish freedom like legalized recreational drugs, abortion, the mutilation of the genitals of children who express any form of gender confusion and more. To the contrary: We live in a nation where the concept of 'ordered liberty' means that in 'order to form a more perfect union,' we must establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity.'
In response to a request for comment from the State Department, a senior department official replied: 'Thousands of documents pass through the State Department for a clearance process. Many are never finalized nor approved. The only official messaging documents used would have to be fully approved.' The person was granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
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Keystrokes
SPIDER TRAPPED: Four people were arrested this morning in Britain by the National Crime Agency on allegations they were involved in ransomware attacks against various companies. It marks the first arrests of people believed to be affiliated with the prolific hacking group known as Scattered Spider since it began attacking U.S. and U.K. targets earlier this year after going on hiatus for unclear reasons last summer.
U.S. federal agencies and the cybersecurity industry have linked Scattered Spider to attacks on U.S. retailers, aviation businesses and global insurance companies. The group is alleged to have infiltrated more than 100 businesses since 2022. The people arrested today are suspected of targeting U.K. retailers.
According to the NCA, the suspects are a 19-year-old British man, a 17-year-old British man, a 20-year-old British woman and a 19-year-old Latvian man. The NCA said their electronic devices were seized for digital forensic analysis.
The Complex
GERMANS WANT MORE JETS: The German government is planning to buy another 15 F-35 fighter jets from the U.S., our European colleagues report (for Pros!).
The talks between Washington and Berlin are sensitive given tensions within Europe over future defense cooperation. France and Germany have had a recent rumble over French industrial demands related to the Future Combat Air System, Europe's flagship next-generation fighter jet program.
If the F-35 deal goes through, it would put Germany's planned fleet of the jets at 50.
On the Hill
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CORNYN'S LEGISLATIVE DUO: Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) is introducing two bills to address challenges in prosecuting spies and efforts to boost bilateral cooperation with Mexico on the drug trade.
He's teaming up with fellow Senate Intelligence Committee members JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) and MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) to introduce a bill that would eliminate the statute of limitations for crimes such as gathering or delivering classified information to aid foreign governments. The goal is to aid federal prosecutors in their efforts to hold accused spies and foreign agents accountable.
The Texas Republican is also joining forces with Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.) on a bill that would direct the office of the director of national intelligence to prepare an action plan to boost counternarcotics cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico, given the focus within the intelligence community now on combating the global drug trade.
Both bills could face good odds to become law. Fentanyl and counternarcotics remains a bipartisan priority and the intelligence crimes bill has the backing of influential members of the select Senate panel.
Broadsides
RIF-RAFF AT STATE: Democrats on Capitol Hill are sounding the alarm about the State Department's decision to move ahead with staff cuts in Foggy Bottom this week in the wake of a court ruling.
The Supreme Court ruled earlier this week that the administration could proceed with widespread staff cuts across federal agencies. In line with that ruling, long-anticipated staff cuts at State are expected to materialize Friday, per State Department officials who spoke to NatSec Daily. We granted them granted anonymity because of the risk of reprisal from State Department leadership.
The top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN of New Hampshire, argued to our own Joe Gould the cuts were arbitrary. She said the planned staff layoff is 'very distressing and undermines our national security and the ability of American businesses to operate overseas.'
The administration is defending the cuts. 'We took a very deliberate step to reorganize the State Department to be more efficient and more focused,' Rubio argued today. 'That's been publicly noticed to Congress months ago; we've been prepared to implement it.'
Not everyone on Capitol Hill is distraught at Rubio's moves. When asked if he had a message for State Department employees, Senate Foreign Relations Chair JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) told Joe that Rubio is 'working really hard to make that operation more efficient and respond better to the priorities that we in congress have and that the administration has — that is an agency that is managed by the second branch of government.'
IRAN HEADS UP: The State Department is really really warning Americans not to travel to Iran at this moment.
The department is launching an awareness campaign with videos from former Iranian detainees and warnings on the State Department website. And it's putting the stakes in stark terms. Among the guidance a State Department spokesperson offered today is for travelers still interested in going to Iran to leave a will, a power of attorney and DNA samples in case they are needed. The spokesperson also said travelers should establish a 'proof of life protocol' to rule out potential abduction hoaxes.
Transitions
— Ukrainian Defense Minister RUSTEM UMEROV is the leading contender to be Kyiv's next ambassador to the United States, Ukraine President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said today at a recovery conference for Ukraine in Rome. Umerov, a close ally of Zelenskyy, will replace OKSANA MARKAROVA, who has fallen out of favor with Republicans over her role in a controversial 2024 visit by the Ukrainian president to a Scranton munition plant with Democratic lawmakers up for reelection.
— Rubio isn't the only Cabinet member wearing multiple NatSec hats these days. Transportation Secretary SEAN DUFFY will be interim NASA administrator, Trump announced last night.
— Trump tapped Australian-born 'alpha male' MAGA commentator NICK ADAMS to be U.S. ambassador to Malaysia.
— NICHOLAS RAINERI is joining TSG Advocates as head of the firm's national security portfolio. He most recently was a senior adviser in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
— RYAN FIORESI will be executive director of the U.S. office of the International Campaign for Tibet. He most recently was the senior adviser on Tibetan issues in the State Department's Office of the Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights.
— Meridian International Center has added JIM GOLSEN as vice president of the Center for Corporate Diplomacy and KELLEE WICKER as vice president for technology, innovation and space. Golden previously was deputy director general at the Commerce Department. Wicker previously was director of the science and technology innovation program at the Wilson Center.
What to Read
— Chris Buckley, The New York Times: China Surveys Seabeds Where Naval Rivals May One Day Clash
— Makena Kelly and Vittoria Elliott, Wired: This is DOGE 2.0
— Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend and Kate Townsend, Foreign Affairs: How Russia Could Exploit a Vacuum in Europe
— Barney Jopson, Financial Times: Spain's Pedro Sánchez fights for his political life
Tomorrow Today
— National Institute for Deterrence Studies, 10 a.m.: Arms Control is Not Dead Yet
— Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: The Han Kuang Exercise and the Taiwanese Military's Road to Readiness
Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Ester Wells, who should also face steep tariffs on the grounds of national security.