Charging against China's battery dominance

Politico

6 days ago

With help from Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman
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FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — As China steps up what some in Washington are describing as coercive economic statecraft against the United States, a Washington think tank is publishing an accounting of Beijing's nonmarket practices vis-à-vis battery technology.
At a Tuesday event on Capitol Hill, The Foundation for Defense of Democracies is releasing a report outlining how Beijing's 'parasitic' efforts to lead the advanced batteries sector are potentially impairing U.S. national security.
Your favorite national security newsletter got a first look at the report, which traces how China came to dominate pretty much every part of the production of these batteries, which are used to power everything from electric vehicles to battlefield communications systems and directed energy weapons. In turn, the authors argue Beijing has created chokepoints in the supply chain that can be used to apply pressure on the U.S. and its allies.
To be sure, China is not the only country using economic levers in place of more traditional foreign policy tools against its adversaries. Both Trump administrations and the Biden administration have used measures, including export controls, tariffs and targeted sanctions, to keep Beijing from obtaining and developing sensitive technologies.
Yet China's structural advantages against the United States have only grown. And batteries in particular are becoming increasingly important to a whole spate of military technologies, most notably drones. Without advanced batteries and the critical minerals that go into them (which China also controls), the U.S. and other allies may be forced to make painful concessions to Beijing or risk falling behind on the battlefield.
'Batteries are the bullets of future wars,' said ELAINE DEZENSKI, one of the authors of the report and the head of the think tank's Center on Economic and Financial Power. 'If we don't have control over those supply chains, we degrade our military capabilities.'
Meanwhile, China is making some dramatic economic moves against the United States. Over the weekend, Chinese officials barred a U.S. Commerce Department employee from exiting the country. Today, Chinese officials confirmed they're also similarly targeting a Goldman Sachs executive. And last week, Beijing imposed new export controls against the United States — this time specifically impacting the batteries at the heart of FDD's report.
And FDD isn't the only one expressing alarm about China's supply chain dominance — the question of China's economic rise and its impacts on U.S. national security weighed heavily on participants at last week's Aspen Security Forum.
In one memorable moment at the Rocky Mountain confab, former Ambassador to China NICHOLAS BURNS said on a panel that 'we have underestimated the speed and strength of China on issues like economic coercion,' noting China's outsized influence over critical mineral supply chains.
Dezenski says that the report is intended as a first step to help policymakers in Washington devise the right solutions to protect U.S. manufacturers and businesses that rely on advanced battery technology.
'There's no silver bullet,' Dezenski said. 'Unless we know what we're up against, we can't stop it.'
The Inbox
RESTARTING RUSSIA-UKRAINE TALKS: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said talks between Russia and Ukraine to end Moscow's three-year invasion will resume Wednesday.
Earlier in the day, Reuters reported that there are still plenty of obstacles to talks, should they occur. Zelenskyy said that his agenda is clear and includes 'the return of prisoners of war, the return of children abducted by Russia and the preparation of a leaders' meeting.' But Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN views Zelenskyy as an illegitimate leader — making it doubtful the two may meet — and the Kremlin suggested it's still reviewing draft proposals carefully.
'There is our draft memorandum and there is a draft memorandum that has been handed over by the Ukrainian side. There is to be an exchange of views and talks on these two drafts, which are diametrically opposed so far,' said Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV.
UAE SENDING BACK AFGHAN REFUGEES? The United Arab Emirates already returned some refugees to Afghanistan before President DONALD TRUMP vowed to protect thousands of Afghans who fled potential persecution by the Taliban for helping the U.S. during two decades of military operations in the country.
On Sunday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that 'I will try to save them, starting right now,' linking to an article on the Afghans held in limbo in the Emirates. But as Reuters' Humeyra Pamuk reported Sunday night, a State Department cable revealed that the Emiratis already sent Afghan refugees back and informed Washington about the move before Trump issued his promise.
Special adviser to the Emirati Foreign Minister SALEM AL-ZAABI told U.S. officials earlier in July that two families were returned to Afghanistan in early July 'at their request, since they were tired of waiting.' More refugees will likely return as they wait in the Emirates and other countries for their asylum claims to be processed.
STATE OF THE STOCKPILES: The Jewish Institute for National Security of America think tank is out with new research on the effects of Israel and Iran's recent war on weapons stockpiles, revealing that the U.S. used some of its high-powered weaponry to protect Israel.
The U.S. used many more THAAD interceptors than expected to down some Iranian missiles, which evaded Israel's Iron Dome defense system, per data reviewed by JINSA analysts. Iran has shifted away from using drones and regular missiles towards using ballistic missiles, which require more U.S. help to shoot down. Most of the Iranian missiles fired at Israel were ultimately intercepted, though THAAD interceptors are in high demand and their use cost U.S. taxpayers over a billion dollars, per the report.
ARI CICUREL, a JINSA analyst who authored the white paper, told NatSec Daily, 'nothing that has been devised or likely will be devised is going to be foolproof.' But it is a warning that the U.S. and Israel need to replenish their stocks of interceptors across the arsenal and innovate such that they can develop even more cost-effective and higher-quality air defense systems.
'The baseline levels they had before are not going to be sufficient going forward. They need to expand the stockpiles that they keep so that in a war of this size, they're not using as large of a percentage of their stocks,' Cicurel said.
MARINES HEADED HOME: Hundreds of active-duty Marines who were deployed to Los Angeles in response to protests over the administration's immigration enforcement actions are being sent home, according to CNN. The approximately 700 Marines were deployed along with thousands of National Guard troops.
'With stability returning to Los Angeles, the Secretary has directed the redeployment of the 700 Marines whose presence sent a clear message: lawlessness will not be tolerated,' chief Pentagon spokesman SEAN PARNELL said in a statement.
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Keystrokes
LAYING DOWN THE LAW: A watershed cyber law is set to expire this fall, and lawmakers have yet to make the necessary moves to keep it on the books, our colleagues at Morning Cyber report (for Pros!).
The 2015 Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act, which uses legal safeguards to incentivize sharing information on cyber threats between the private sector and government, sunsets on Sept. 30. But despite its popularity and urging from the private sector to renew it, there's been little action to date on the Hill.
'The time to begin discussing and circulating potential changes to CISA 2015 was six months ago, if not earlier,' complained Rep. BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.), the top Democrat on the House Homeland Security Committee.
Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Chair RAND PAUL (R-Ky.), who opposed the initial law, hasn't signaled the renewal is a priority for him. House Homeland Chair MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) just resigned from Congress, but Rep. ANDREW GARBARINO (R-N.Y.), who is running to succeed him and chairs the cyber subpanel, has vowed to renew the law if he wins the gavel.
The Complex
BRASS TACKS: Several nominees for top military posts head to Capitol Hill this week to make their case, as pressure from Trump to have these roles filled by summer intensifies.
The nominee to lead U.S. Africa Command, Air Force Lt. Gen. DAGVIN ANDERSON, and the pick to head up Special Operations Command, Navy Vice Adm. FRANK BRADLEY, face the Senate Armed Services Committee at a confirmation hearing on Tuesday. Trump's pick for chief of naval operations, Adm. DARYL CAUDLE, is set to testify at a long-awaited hearing Thursday after the Navy's last top officer, Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI, was fired in February.
Most military promotions are confirmed with little trouble, and large swaths are typically approved just before Congress breaks for August. But Trump in a Truth Social post this weekend urged Majority Leader JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) to cancel the chamber's August recess and 'long weekends' so senators can get his nominees confirmed. The tension there will largely be with his civilian nominees, a roster that includes 17 picks for Pentagon posts awaiting confirmation votes on the Senate floor.
On the Hill
EYE ON ARMS EXPORTS: House Foreign Affairs meets tomorrow to consider eight bills — some that could streamline U.S. arms exports and foreign military sales overseas, potentially unlocking faster deals.
It's wonky, but it impacts partners abroad and the multibillion-dollar defense trade.
Rep. MICHAEL BAUMGARTNER (R-Wash.) proposal would require the State Department to decide on export licenses within 45 days for trusted allies and 60 days for others — a shift from today's process under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, which sets no deadlines. Partners in Europe and Asia have long complained of bureaucratic bottlenecks. The bill would compel State to publish an annual list of allies who qualify for fast-track approvals.
Another bill, the Missile Technology Control Revision Act from Rep. BILL HUIZENGA (R-Mich.), would amend the Arms Export Control Act to eliminate the MTCR's 'presumption of denial' for certain exports. Australia and the U.K. — both AUKUS pact partners — would be treated like NATO and non-NATO allies.
That could ease exports of 'Category 1' drones — which can carry payloads over 1,100 pounds or fly more than 186 miles — subject to the strictest restrictions.
Broadsides
GROWING GAZA FRUSTRATIONS: A spate of Western leaders are calling for the immediate end to the war in Gaza following a controversial Israeli military strike on the enclave's only Catholic church and the killing of Palestinians trying to receive humanitarian aid.
France, Italy, Japan, Australia, Canada, Denmark and other countries today condemned the killing of more than 800 Palestinians, describing Israel's actions as the 'drip feeding of aid and the inhumane killing of civilians.'
That followed comments from Belgian King PHILIPPE urging Europe to 'show stronger leadership' and backing a call from U.N. Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES for an immediate ceasefire. POPE LEO XIV too demanded an end to the 'barbarity' of the war in Gaza while delivering remarks at the papal summer palace of Castel Gandolfo.
International pressure on Israel has mounted in recent weeks. A group of progressive leaders from twenty countries gathered in Bogotá and called for a global arms embargo.
Israel, for its part, has pushed back on the calls for it to end its war effort. In a post on X, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said the statement from the group countries 'is disconnected from reality and sends the wrong message to Hamas.'
Transitions
— Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee have made some staff moves, NatSec Daily has learned. AMY ENGLISH has been promoted to deputy staff director for Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Formerly, she was Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN's foreign policy advisor in the personal office and worked at the British Embassy. Meanwhile, MEGAN BARTLEY, a longtime committee staffer and counsel, took over as chief counsel to committee Democrats earlier this year. With the decision earlier this year to name NAZ DURAKOGLU as Democratic staff director, that means the Foreign Relations Committee is the only Senate committee with an all-female leadership team.
— The Center for Strategic and International Studies named JERRY MCGINN the inaugural director of its new Center for the Industrial Base, formerly known as the Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group. McGinn was the principal deputy director in DOD's Office of Manufacturing and Industrial Base Policy. He established and led the Baroni Center for Government Contracting at George Mason University, serving as its executive director since 2018.
— Lt. Gen. SHAWN BRATTON has been nominated to succeed Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. MICHAEL GUETLEIN, who was confirmed to lead the Golden Dome program. Bratton is currently the deputy chief of space operations for strategy, plans, programs, and requirements.
— Gen. THOMAS BUSSIERE, now head of Air Force Global Strike Command, has been nominated to be vice chief of staff for the Air Force. The service's No. 2 job has been without a Senate-confirmed officer since Gen. JAMES SLIFE was dismissed in February.
— ADHAM SAHLOUL is now senior adviser and coordinator of the newly launched North Star Policy Initiative. Sahloul previously was a special adviser at the Pentagon and USAID under President Joe Biden.
What to Read
— Amy Mackinnon, POLITICO: Vodka Toasts With the Dictator of Belarus: How Diplomacy Gets Done in Trump 2.0
— Mat Youkee, Americas Quarterly: U.S. Pressure on Huawei Reaches New Heights in Panama
— Antonia Hitchens, The New Yorker: Donald Trump's Tariff Dealmaker-in-Chief
Tomorrow Today
— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: Nominations
— Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: Nomination of Jason Evans to be an undersecretary of State for management
— House Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Fully Operational: Stuxnet 15 Years Later and the Evolution of Cyber Threats to Critical Infrastructure
— Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: The Resilience of the Israeli Economy in Times of War
— Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10:30 a.m.: Virtual discussion on 'the challenges in Europe and Africa.'
— Heritage Foundation, 10:30 a.m.: 2025 B.C. Lee Lecture on 'U.S. Engagement with China' with Rep. JOHN MOOLENAAR (R-Mich.)
— Institute of World Politics, 12 p.m.: A Solution for the Kurdish Conflict in Iran: Federalism or Secession?
— Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 2 p.m.: Getting to a Pragmatic Cuba Policy for the United States
— Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, 2 p.m.: 'What new geopolitical shifts mean for the South Caucasus,' focusing on Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.
— Senate Foreign Relations Western Hemisphere, Transnational Crime, Civilian Security, Democracy, Human Rights, and Global Women's Issues Subcommittee, 2:30 p.m.: The Status of Democracy and Human Rights in Hong Kong, Five Years After the PRC's (People's Republic of China) Judicial Takeover
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Katherine Long, who view Eric as an illegitimate leader of this newsletter.