Portugal holds a third general election in 3 years. But the vote might not end the political turmoil

Globe and Mail

18-05-2025

Voters in Portugal returned to the polls on Sunday for a third general election in three years, as the country's increasingly fragmented political landscape defies efforts to unite behind policies on pressing national issues such as immigration, housing and the cost of living.
Hopes that the ballot might end the worst spell of political instability in decades for the European Union country of 10.6 million people could be dashed, however. Polls suggest the election is poised to deliver yet another minority government, leaving the Portuguese back where they started.
'What the polls indicate is that there will not be major differences from the last election results,' said Marina Costa Lobo, head researcher at Lisbon University's Institute of Social Sciences. That outcome could bring another scramble to build political alliances in parliament, she said.
For the past 50 years, two parties have dominated politics in Portugal, with the centre-right Social Democrats and the centre-left Socialist Party alternating in power. They are likely to come out on top in this ballot.
But public frustration with their record in government has fuelled the growth of new alternatives in recent years. That has denied the bigger parties enough seats in parliament to snare a majority needed to ensure that they serve a full four-year term.
'This campaign was very, very weak, had ridiculous moments, like clownish. Very little was spoken about Portugal within the European Union – it's like we are not part of it,' teacher Isabel Monteiro, 63, said in Lisbon. 'So I came with the conviction that I need to vote, as it is my civic duty, but I come with a bit of sadness and disenchantment with all parties.'
A centre-right minority government headed by the Social Democrats in partnership with the smaller Popular Party lost a confidence vote in parliament in March after less than a year in power, as opposition lawmakers teamed up against it. That triggered an early election, which had been due in 2028.
Polls have suggested that the partnership, called Democratic Alliance, again has a small lead over the Socialists, but likely not enough to secure a 116-seat majority in the 230-seat National Assembly, Portugal's parliament.
Voting began at 8 a.m. (0700 GMT) and ends at 8 p.m. (1900 GMT), when exit polls can be published. Most official results are expected by midnight (2300 GMT).
The confidence vote was triggered by a political storm around potential conflicts of interest in the business dealings of Social Democratic Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's family law firm. Montenegro has denied any wrongdoing and is standing for re-election.
Corruption scandals have dogged Portuguese politics in recent years. That has helped fuel the rise of Chega (Enough), a hard-right populist party whose leader André Ventura says he has 'zero tolerance' for misconduct in office.
But Chega, which shot from 12 to 50 seats to come third in last year's election, has recently fallen foul of its own lawmakers' alleged wrongdoing.
One of them is suspected of stealing suitcases from the Lisbon airport and selling the contents online, and another allegedly faked the signature of a dead woman. Both resigned.
'We are lacking people with character, with righteousness,' said Alexandre Cardoso, a 75-year-old retiree. 'It worries me more due to my grandchildren. . . There is a lot of disenchantment, a lot, especially for people of my generation that have gone through what we did. I don't see the light at the end of the tunnel.'
Chega owes much of its success to its demands for a tighter immigration policy that has resonated with voters.
Portugal has witnessed a steep rise in immigration. In 2018, there were fewer than a half-million legal immigrants in the country, according to government statistics. By early this year, there were more than 1.5 million, many of them Brazilians and Asians working in tourism and farming.
Thousands more lack the proper documents to be in Portugal. The outgoing government announced two weeks before the election that it was expelling about 18,000 foreigners living in the country without authorization. Though such a step is routine, the timing drew accusations that it was trying to capture votes from Chega.
Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos, who is also standing for prime minister, described the move as a 'Trumpification' of Portuguese politics, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump's focus on immigration policies.
A housing crisis has also fired up debate. House prices and rents have been soaring for the past 10 years, due in part to an influx of white-collar foreigners who have driven up prices.
House prices jumped another 9 per cent last year, said National Statistics Institute, a government body. Rents in and around the capital Lisbon, where around 1.5 million people live, last year saw the steepest rise in 30 years, climbing more than 7 per cent, the institute said.
People complain that they can't afford to buy or rent a home where they come from, and that they and their children have to move away to buy.
The problem is compounded by Portugal being one of Western Europe's poorest countries.
The average monthly salary last year was around 1,200 euros ($1,340) before tax, according to the statistics agency. The government-set minimum wage this year is 870 euros ($974) a month before tax.