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The Diplomat
a day ago
- Business
- The Diplomat
Polling Shows Central Europeans Remain Skeptical of China
A look into public opinion results provides an interesting complement to government-level dynamics in four nations' respective bilateral relations with Beijing. The countries of the Visegrad Four (V4) – Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia – have had divergent trajectories in their relations with Beijing over the past decade. In Czechia, the honeymoon period of relations under the leadership of Czech Social Democrats and President Milos Zeman in the mid-2010s gave way to a rift in the relationship, marked by scandals related to China's interference, unmet economic promises and Czech active engagement in developing ties with Taiwan. Meanwhile, Hungary has doubled down on the China-friendly course under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, making Hungary the leading recipient of Chinese investment in Europe for the past two consecutive years. Slovakia, under Prime Minister Robert Fico since 2023, seems to have tried to emulate Orbán's apparent success in courting Chinese investment by leaning closer to China on political issues, inking a strategic partnership with Beijing last year. Poland has charted a largely pragmatic course on China, irrespective of the government in power. A look into public opinion results, based on the recent large-scale polling by Central European Institute of Asian Studies, provides an interesting complement to government-level dynamics in the respective bilateral relations with Beijing. Overall, Central Europeans remain skeptical of China. The Czechs are the most negative, with 59.3 percent of respondents viewing China unfavorably and only 20.8 percent favorably. Hungarians, despite the cozy relationship of the Orban government with Beijing, are also largely negative toward China, together with the Poles. While Slovaks are overall also negative toward China, they have the highest proportion of positive views of China in the V4, at 33.6 percent, and the lowest share of negative views, at 39.3 percent. A deeper dive into perceptions of China by political preference provides another layer to the picture. In Hungary, there is a large gulf in perceptions of China between the supporters of the governing Fidesz party and its leading opponent, Tisza. Among supporters of Fidesz, China is viewed positively by 47.5 percent respondents and negatively by 27.8 percent, while for Tisza, it is 24.6 percent and 58.1 percent percent, respectively (the rest expressed neutral views). Similarly polarized views can be seen in Slovakia, with striking differences in perceptions of China between the supporters of the ruling Smer-SD party and the leading Progressive Slovakia opposition party. Meanwhile, while China is seen relatively more positively by the voters of ANO in Czechia – as opposed to the voters of the current China-skeptical coalition led by Spolu since 2021 – negative views of China still dominate even among ANO voters. Finally, in Poland, views of China are comparatively less polarized between KO, the leading party of the current coalition, and PiS, the major opposition party, which is mirrored in the relative continuity of Warsaw's China policy. The overall picture shows that conservative voters tend to view China more positively than liberals in Central Europe – an interesting difference when compared to the United States. Meanwhile, negative views of China are more prevalent among the more educated groups of the population. Among the different age groups, the picture is not homogeneous across the V4. While in Czechia and Hungary, the youngest people, aged 18-24, have the most negative view of China, it is the opposite in Slovakia and Poland. While we cannot assume a direct relationship between the views of the voter base and political parties' actual policies, the results do offer some hints about what we could expect should the governments change. Czechia is going into elections this October and Andrej Babis' ANO looks poised to form a new government. The negative perception of China among ANO voters does not imply that the new government would have the political capital to return to the honeymoon era of relations a decade ago. This does not preclude, however, a more 'pragmatic' approach to China, which ANO has been talking about in the opposition. Hungary will hold elections next year, and Orban's power seems to be, for the first time, in real jeopardy. Tisza has been outperforming Fidesz in the polls, threatening Orban's hold on power. If there is indeed a change in the government, Budapest's alignment with China may be under threat. Fidesz's association with China, and the related issues that have sparked local controversy, might be partly to blame. The polling shows that Hungarians have the most negative perceptions of Chinese investments in the V4, despite, or perhaps because Hungary hosts the largest amount of Chinese capital in the region. Moreover, 58.4 percent of Hungarians agree that Chinese investment brings environmental problems to the country, while 56.3 percent see Chinese investment as increasing corruption in Hungary. The polling thus shows the need to look beyond official policies to understand the dynamics of relations with China and anticipate potential recalibrations on the horizon.
The Journal
a day ago
- Business
- The Journal
Scrutiny of laws to facilitate Ireland's trade deal with Canada scrapped after US tariffs
LAWS TO FACILITATE a trade deal between Ireland, Canada and other EU member states will not be scrutinised following the announcement that a 15% tariff will be placed on Irish goods exported to the US . The contentious EU-Canada trade agreement, known as CETA, is to be ratified after politicians on the Oireachtas foreign affairs committee have waived their right to investigate the potential outcomes and consequences of the bill. Amendments to the Arbitration Act, which dictates the legality of, and set petametres around, civil lawsuits that can be taken in Ireland, were due to be examined in order to facilitate the creation of a free-trade zone between Europe and Canada. Ten member states previously rejected the deal and declined to ratify it , and the Irish Supreme Court previously said that CETA would be unconstitutional over clauses that could allow foreign investors to sue the state over any potential breaches. Trade minister and Tánaiste Simon Harris announced today that he intends to bring forward and accelerate the updates to the Arbitration Act, which will allow for CETA to be ratified without any constitutional breaches. Advertisement Government previously earmarked the expedited implementation of the deal in May , following crunch talks over Ireland's challenges with economic competitiveness and the threat of harsh US tariffs. The decision to scrap pre-legislative scrutiny, when politicians invite experts to discuss the potential consequences and outcomes of new laws, was welcomed by Harris. He said that the deal will 'open the door to one of the world's largest economies' and allow Irish firms, farmers and exports to have new opportunities. He claimed that Irish exports to Canada have increased 'fourfold' since its framework was agreed. 'This is about more trade, more jobs, and more stability for Ireland,' Harris added. Two members of the foreign affairs committee, Senators Patricia Stephenson and Alice Mary Higgins, have said they are alarmed by the decision. Stephenson said it was shameful that the government would ignore the Supreme Court decision. 'This is a disgraceful decision given the fraught legal background of this issue and the hugely controversial investor court system that ratification of CETA will usher in,' the Social Democrats senator said. Independent Senator Higgins, who has been a long-time critic of the trade deal, said the untested bill could have 'significant implications for our sovereignty', which could expose Ireland to millions 'or even billions' in potential claims. Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone... A mix of advertising and supporting contributions helps keep paywalls away from valuable information like this article. Over 5,000 readers like you have already stepped up and support us with a monthly payment or a once-off donation. Learn More Support The Journal
Irish Examiner
a day ago
- Business
- Irish Examiner
Call for Government to republish summer budget projections after US-EU trade deal
The Government has been pushed to republish its summer budget projections in light of a US-EU agreement on tariffs. The summer economic statement published last week confirmed the total size of Budget 2026 would be €9.4bn, but was based on a 10% tariff framework. In light of the 15% agreement, Social Democrats finance spokesman Cian O'Callaghan said that the Government must re-draft the document. 'I welcome that a deal has been done which avoids a catastrophic trade war. However, there is much that is still unclear about what has been agreed. What is beyond doubt is that a 15% tariff rate will be very damaging for many Irish businesses. 'It is less than a week since the Government published its summer economic statement, using an assumption of no tariffs. This was despite the dogs on the street being aware that a 10% tariff rate was the best possible outcome. 'The Government must now publish an updated summer economic statement which outlines the impact of a 15% tariff rate on the national finances and the budgetary calculus.' In the document itself, the authors warn that "if there is a deterioration in the tariff landscape, Government will recalibrate its fiscal strategy — reducing the quantum of the budgetary package — in order to ensure that the public finances remain on a sustainable trajectory" but did not give details of alternative scenarios. The document says that while the economy is in good condition, the public finances "are not as healthy as the headline figures suggest". "While the headline budgetary position is in surplus, this is almost entirely due to a handful of large corporate taxpayers. "Over the medium term, structural changes – an ageing population, the phasing out of fossil fuels and other greenhouse gas emitters, the need to facilitate the digital transition, and the fragmentation of economic activity along geopolitical lines – will have profound implications for the Irish economy and for the public finances." Finance minister Paschal Donohoe said that re-issuing the statement would not make sense as it is merely a statement of policy and not a prescriptive set of accounts. "The department undertakes two sets of forecasts each year – both of which are aligned to the European fiscal cycle (spring in the annual progress report and autumn at budget time). "While the baseline tariff rates have increased, it is important to look at the agreement in the round. Indeed, the updated US-EU tariff arrangements will also provide greater levels of certainty, which will help support economic activity." Labour leader Ivana Bacik, meanwhile, called for "proactive" measures to protect jobs. 'There's no question that this will have consequences. We're calling on the Government to be proactive. They must engage with the Irish businesses impacted to ensure jobs are protected and new market opportunities pursued. Read More Paul Hosford: US tariffs take shine off summer economic statement
Irish Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Irish Times
Call for Government to urgently support Irish businesses most at risk from US tariffs
Social Democrats finance spokesman Cian O'Callaghan says the Government must publish an updated summer economic statement to account for the EU 's tariff agreement with the US . In a statement on Sunday evening, Mr O'Callaghan welcomed a deal that 'avoids a catastrophic trade war', but said it is 'beyond doubt . . . that a 15 per cent tariff rate will be very damaging for many Irish businesses'. 'It is less than a week since the Government published its summer economic statement, using an assumption of no tariffs,' he added. 'This was despite the dogs on the street being aware that a 10 per cent tariff rate was the best possible outcome.' Mr O'Callaghan was one of a number of figures in Irish politics to publish statements regarding the trade deal on Sunday evening. Labour leader Ivana Bacik called on the Government to engage with Irish businesses, warning that continued uncertainty around pharmaceutical exports is evidence of 'just how difficult it is to engage constructively with the Trump administration'. READ MORE 'We in Labour are calling on the Government to fast-track the development of a new, modernised short-time work scheme to ensure that skilled jobs are not lost in sectors under pressure,' Ms Bacik said. 'Other EU countries have long-standing schemes that help employers retain staff during economic shocks. We need a system in place in Ireland that can respond to future volatility or sectoral downturns quickly and effectively.' Taoiseach Micheál Martin welcomed the agreement, saying it 'will help to protect many jobs in Ireland'. He added that it 'brings clarity and predictability to the trading relationship between the EU and the US – the biggest in the world". Mr Martin acknowledged that higher tariffs will make trade 'more expensive and more challenging' but said that the agreement 'creates a new era of stability that can hopefully contribute to a growing and deepening relationship between the EU and the US'. [ EU-US deal good for Ireland as it averts trade war but vital details remain unclear Opens in new window ] The Taoiseach pledged to study the details of the agreement, including its implications for Irish businesses exporting to the US and for other sectors operating here. 'Given the very real risk that existed for escalation and for the imposition of punitively high tariffs, this news will be welcomed by many,' his statement concluded. There were further calls to support Irish businesses from Sinn Féin spokesperson on foreign affairs and trade, Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire. 'Ultimately, while a deal is preferable to tit-for-tat tariffs, the reality is, tariffs of this kind are bad for businesses, consumers and workers,' he said. 'We need to take the necessary steps to support our indigenous businesses, to increase exports to new markets, to grow talent across the island and to trade across the island and internationally." Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Harris echoed the Taoiseach in welcoming the transatlantic trade agreement, noting that European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen described the 15 per cent tariff rate as 'all-inclusive'. 'While Ireland regrets that the baseline tariff of 15 per cent is included in the agreement, it is important that we now have more certainty on the foundations of the EU-US trade relationship, which is essential for jobs, growth and investment,' Mr Harris said. Finally, Danny McCoy, CEO of business lobby Ibec, said the trade agreement represents a 'substantial burden for many industries', particularly those relying heavily on the US market to operate. 'Our message to the Government, as it was with the 10 per cent tariff, is that the most exposed sectors will require support similar to the interventions provided as a response to Brexit,' Mr McCoy said.
New York Times
3 days ago
- Politics
- New York Times
Germany's Far-Right Party May Be Banned. Its Voters Fear Being Left Voiceless.
Georg Wenzel was standing outside a bank in the town of Pirna on a recent morning, lamenting how some German lawmakers want to ban the only political party he trusts. A young woman walked by just as I asked Mr. Wenzel, a 67-year-old retiree, what he thought the biggest issues were for his vote. She was wearing a hijab. Mr. Wenzel pointed at her. 'That,' he said. More than a million refugees from Africa and the Middle East have legally settled in Germany over the last decade, many of them Muslim. In towns like Pirna, in the country's east near the Czech border, anger over immigration runs high. It has turned much of eastern Germany into a stronghold for the hard-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, which finished second national elections in February, in part on the strength of its promises to seal borders and deport migrants. The AfD has been classified as right-wing extremist by German intelligence, over its denigration of immigrants and what the government called an unconstitutional campaign to treat German residents differently depending on where they were born. That designation has strengthened other parties' resolve not to invite the AfD into government. It has also fueled a push by some lawmakers, including center-left Social Democrats who are partners in the current government, to ban the AfD entirely. Germany has outlawed political parties twice before, both times in the 1950s, banning a neo-Nazi party, which dissolved, and the Communist Party. America and its allies banned the party of Hitler soon after defeating Germany in 1945. The push to eliminate the AfD is in its early stages. There is no guarantee it will succeed. Recent polls show about half of Germans support outlawing the party. But many lawmakers, including AfD opponents in the government, worry that the evidence is too weak for the nation's constitutional court — which would make the ultimate decision — to agree. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
