Braid: Will 'yes' vote on independence force Premier Smith to act? She won't say
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The question to Premier Danielle Smith was as blunt as I could make it.
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If Albertans vote 'yes' to separation in a referendum, would she proceed to pull Alberta out of Canada?
The premier did not say no. Neither did she say yes.
'Until I see an actual question with 177,000 signatures of Albertans that are supportive of it, it's difficult for me to know what that looks like,' she said at Tuesday's news conference.
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'I did say (Monday) in my commentary that I will respect the wishes of Albertans, and at the moment, they're a bit undefined about what it is Albertans want to do.
'I think if an election were held today, it (Alberta independence) would get about 30 per cent support.
'So that's why I want to make sure that those numbers do not get higher and . . . end up going lower because we're successful in negotiating a new arrangement with Canada.'
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Smith is setting up the referendum idea as a pressure valve for angry Albertans. She'll let them get signatures while she tries to get a deal with Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Her personal view is clear — she's no separatist, yet. She seems to follow the Free Alberta Strategy that sees independence as a last resort.
But her referendum vote could be the best thing that ever happened to Alberta separatism.
The signature drive will motivate our separatists to organize, raise money and work hard. They'll pick up sympathizers along the way. They have Smith's full approval to give it a try.
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Postmedia's Rahim Mohamed asked a crucial question — would she allow her MLAs and ministers to campaign for one side or the other in a referendum campaign?
Smith said the UCP was founded in 2017 with a declaration of 'loyalty to a united Canada and a commitment for Alberta to be a leader in the Canadian Federation.'
That suggests campaigning for separatism would be disloyal to the party and maybe cause for ejection from caucus.
But, again, Smith didn't say MLAs should be neutral.
'I'm not going to be demonizing anybody who may have a different view than me,' she said at one point.
'All I can do is try to convince people that my view is right, that it's worth giving it a try, it's worth doing the negotiation and it's worth trying to find some way for the federal government to compromise.'
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Red Deer MLA Jason Stephan has already said he wants this referendum to happen, and he's no fan of today's Canada.
The Brexit debate in the U.K. ripped apart the ruling Conservative Party. Division brought four prime ministers in successive short-term rises and falls.
Alberta's Referendum Act does not generally make a referendum vote binding on the government, but makes exceptions for some constitutional matters.
It's hard to imagine a more obvious constitutional issue than a province leaving Canada. First Nations are already in a fury over possible violations to their constitutional rights.
Smith will have to be very clear on that question before any vote is held. Would this be a binding vote, or just another of the UCP's ingenious ways to let people blow off steam?
The UCP had a fair deal panel under former Premier Jason Kenney. Now there will be an Alberta Next panel. Smith herself will be out there asking people what they want Alberta to look like in the future.
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She casually throws in provocative statements like the following: 'There's quite a bit of law internationally that says that if you are a separate nation, one nation cannot landlock another.
'It's sort of a given that it is an inappropriate use of power to prevent a jurisdiction from being able to get its resources to market.'
She was talking in the context of corridors within Canada, but suddenly added a whiff of separatism.
Carney was asked about this Alberta referendum after his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington.
'Canada is stronger when we work together,' said the ex-Edmontonian.
'As an Albertan, I firmly believe that you can always ask the question, but I know what I would respond, clearly.'
In Alberta, something else is clear. We're heading for a vote that will raise passions to heights unseen since the 1980s.
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