CFP for Dummies plan: What college football can learn from March Madness blueprint

USA Today

02-04-2025

CFP for Dummies plan: What college football can learn from March Madness blueprint
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They're making this more difficult than it is, which falls in line of late with just about all things college football.
So while we soak in the majesty of the three-week event that is March Madness, it's time to reassess the postseason football clunker rolled out last season by the smartest men and women in college sports.
Something, everyone, must be done about the College Football Playoff.
It's time to introduce the CFP for Dummies plan.
'We're only one year into the new playoff format,' said Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione. 'I don't know that you make drastic decisions based off one year.'
While I'm all about not being trapped as a prisoner of the moment, there's something so reassuring about the simplicity of the NCAA basketball tournament that can't be ignored.
Everyone has a chance to play in it, and the highest seeds get more favorable draws. That's it, period.
Hence, the CFP for Dummies plan.
But as we move toward the new CFP contract in 2026, and a likely increase to at least 14 teams, they're reinventing the wheel again. And by 'they' I mean the Big Ten and SEC — the insatiable beasts running college sports.
They've got grievances, and they want to be heard.
They want more guaranteed admission to the CFP, and they're not sure they like the idea of a selection committee — which doesn't exactly use strength of schedule as the determining factor.
They're talking about turning Championship Week into play-in week, but each of the Power conferences have different ideas about how to pull it off.
They're still not sure about campus games, or if more are needed. And the seeding thing is an absolute mess.
This isn't rocket science. Simple is better.
Follow the lead of the NCAA tournament, and begin the 2026 season with a clear and unmistakeable path to the national championship. Here's how it happens:
SPRING POWER RANKINGS: Big Ten | SEC | ACC | Big 12
LOOKING AHEAD: Our way-too-early college football Top 25 for 2025
Commit to the selection committee
This begins and ends with clear and unambiguous metrics from disinterested sources. Translation: computer nerds!
The NCAA tournament uses NET, KenPom, BPI, KPI and – tada! – strength of record (see: record in relation to schedule difficulty) to decide selections for the 68-team field. I refuse to believe the highly qualified mathematicians running these programs can't easily translate their formulas to college football.
The human committee will still have the ultimate say, and there will undoubtedly be questionable decisions (hello, Indiana). But at least there's transparency.
Commit to a 20-team field
How did we jump all the way to 20, you ask? It's less postseason games, in totality, than what the power conferences are currently discussing.
The need for new revenue streams has led the power conferences to the idea of play-in games. More games for television means more money from the CFP contract.
More money from the CFP contract means less of a financial hit when universities begin spending as much as $20 million-23 million annually on de facto pay for play, beginning July 1.
By moving to 20 teams, championship week doesn't change, and conference championships aren't minimized because the winner of the four power conference championships receives a spot in the playoff.
The other 16 teams are at-large selections, much like the NCAA tournament. But here's the catch: just because you're a power conference champion doesn't mean you avoid a play-in game.
Commit to a basketball bracket
After championship weekend, the selection committee releases its field of 20, and the bottom eight teams will compete in play-in games at campus sites. The winners then move to the round of 16, where the CFP is seeded just like the NCAA tournament: No. 1 vs. No. 16, No .2 vs. No. 15, and so on.
The round of 16 is played on campus, and the seven remaining games – quarterfinals, semifinals and championship game – will be neutral sites through the bowl system.
If this system were in place for the 2024 season, the SEC would've had seven of the 20 teams, and the Big Ten five. The Big 12 and ACC would've had three teams each, and the final two spots would've been committed to Boise State and Notre Dame.
The play-in games: Illinois (20) at Miami (13), Missouri (19) at Mississippi (14), Iowa State (18) at South Carolina (15), and Brigham Young (17) at Clemson (16). The four winners move to spots 13-16 in the playoff, based on their end of season CFP ranking.
It is here where I need to stress that the Big Ten and SEC are pushing a 14- or 16-team format for 2026 that includes four automatic qualifications for their respective conferences, and two each for the Big 12 and ACC.
In the CFP for Dummies plan, everyone increases their access. And, more to the point, their ability to earn.
Don't believe it? Check out this empirical evidence of teams per conference (with current conference alignment) beginning with the first CFP after the Covid season.
2023: SEC (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (3), Big 12 (2).
2022: Big Ten (7), SEC (6), Big 12 (3), ACC (2).
2021: Big 12 (6), Big Ten (5), SEC (4), ACC (4).
A simple plan for a simple process.
Welcome, everyone, to The CFP for Dummies plan.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.