NBA, NHL Ratings Swoon Can Only Be Fixed by Game 7

Yahoo

5 hours ago

A question for all those casual hockey fans—an oxymoron, but we'll let it slide—who have yet to overcome their apathy for the Oilers-Panthers Stanley Cup Final rematch: What's it going to take to get you to tune in to this nerve-chewingly entertaining series?
Four games in, and everything's all tied up at 2-2 after Thursday night's lunacy, which featured Edmonton rallying to undo a 3-0 first-period deficit and Florida's Sam Reinhart potting the tying goal with just 19.5 ticks left on the clock. This marked the third game of the series to require bonus cantos, two of which were triggered by a goal that knotted up the score within the final 20 seconds of regulation.
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If tight, evenly matched games aren't your thing—but for the 6-1 blowout in Game 3, this Final has been riveting throughout—perhaps all the scoring might convince you to engage with the NHL title tilt. With 32 goals, the series now stands as the fourth-highest scoring Final through four games in the history of the league.
TNT Sports thus far hasn't been able to capitalize on this bonkers matchup, and while the unspectacular TV ratings aren't terribly shocking, the deliveries are nowhere near commensurate with the quality of hockey on display. Through the first three telecasts, TNT/truTV's coverage is averaging 2.41 million viewers per night, down 28% compared to ABC's analogous stretch (3.34 million) one year ago and off 8% from the pace set when the Warner Bros. Discovery networks carried their first Final in 2023 (2.63 million).
Little wonder. A rematch between a Sunbelt squad and a Canadian team with no stateside market representation was already going to be a drag on the ratings, but the absence of a big-reach broadcaster really seems to have put the squeeze on the NHL's numbers in the States. Cord-cutting is showing little sign of letting up, as the legacy pay-TV bundle lost another 12% of its subscriber base in the first quarter, bringing overall penetration down to just 36% of all U.S. TV households.
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Since TNT Sports covered the five-game Golden Knights-Panthers series in 2023, some 13.1 million subscribers have ditched the bundle, an erasure that obviously isn't working in the rights-holder's favor. And while virtual MVPDs are doing their bit to offset at least some of those cable/satellite/telco-TV defections, the arrows are still pointing downward. (According to MoffettNathanson estimates, approximately 65.2 million consumers subscribe to some sort of video package; given a universe of 125.8 million U.S. TV homes, overall pay-TV penetration is now at 52%. When cable was at its peak in 2012, more than 90% of Americans bought the bundle.)
If there's a silver lining to these cable-throttled Final deliveries, it's that the NHL is guaranteed at least a six-game set. (And given the dizzying back-and-forth nature of this year's series, a seventh game all but seems predestined.) Historically, the sixth frame is when even the lesser-watched series tend to see a significant uptick in deliveries, and a seventh telecast always draws a crowd. The deciding game in last year's Final scared up 7.66 million viewers on ABC, a stampede that boosted the overall series average by 16%.
Meanwhile, the Oilers' quest to hoist Canada's first Cup since 1993 has kept fans to our north locked in, as Sportsnet/CBC are averaging 4.19 million viewers through Game 3. All told, the Final is averaging 6.6 million viewers across the NHL's home nations.
As hockey awaits the boost that accompanies a long series, basketball faces a similar narrowing of interest. Through Wednesday night's broadcast of Game 3 of the NBA Finals, ABC is averaging 8.95 million viewers, down 23% versus the year-ago 11.6 million.
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While a protracted series would go a long way toward beefing up the TV numbers, the turnout thus far has been blighted by a combination of small markets and relatively anonymous players. With a combined home-market reach of 1.99 million TV households, No. 25 Indianapolis and No. 47 Oklahoma City represent just 1.6% of all U.S. TV homes. (New York City alone boasts 7.49 million TV homes, or 6% of the national base.)
In advance of Wednesday night's game in Indy, NBA commissioner Adam Silver dropped in on NBA Countdown, where he tried to find the upside to the ratings crunch. Silver noted that Games 1 and 2 were the 'highest-rated programs in May and June so far on television,' before going on to say that the hometown fans have been captivated by the Pacers-Thunder series.
'We have two markets … that are completely captured by the Finals,' Silver said. 'Every store you go to, there's signage. Everybody on the street is wearing team colors. I've been doing this for a long time; I don't remember being in two markets where it feels so dominant to have these games.'
That's all very well and good, but 98.4% of Americans don't reside in either market. If the Finals are to get a ratings bump, the Basketball Gods will need to serve up a seventh game. And ABC wouldn't say no to a full slate, either; a half-dozen games should generate north of $250 million in ad revenue, while precedent suggests that a seven-night run will yield more than $300 million in marketing spend.
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If the Finals grind on for the full seven games, the bonus deliveries will help pull ABC out of a deep ratings hole; through the first three broadcasts, the TV numbers are on pace to underperform every previous title series but for the 2020 bubble matchup. That said, Game 7s aren't easy to come by. In the last quarter-century, only four series have required a seventh frame, with the average audiences ranging from 19 million for the Spurs-Pistons clincher in 2005 to 31 million for the second Cavs-Warriors series nine years ago.
As with the NHL, every day the 2024-25 season gets extended is a win for the NBA. That said, if Indiana wins Game 4, the Thunder may not be long for this world. Once heavily favored to win the title at -700, Oklahoma City now faces a 2-1 deficit and has seen its odds whittled down to -230. If nothing else, this suggests that bettors are expecting a protracted run, as OKC will need at least six if they're to get past a confounding Pacers squad.
Game 4 tips off Friday night at 8:30 p.m. ET.
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