Be on the lookout for text

Politico

5 hours ago

Presented by the American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA)
With help from Jordain Carney
HAVE YOU SEEN YOUR TAX BILL? Senate Republicans are set to roll out their version of a tax bill this week, as the chamber keeps working to get a megabill to President Donald Trump's desk.
Or at least most of a tax bill, as our Meredith Lee Hill, Jordain Carney and Benjamin Guggenheim noted late Friday.
Today's Senate Finance Committee product is expected to have some gaps, with placeholders left for particularly delicate matters — like, say, how to handle the cap on state and local deductions.
GOP senators have said they expect to at least pull back some on the House proposal, which brings the cap up from $10,000 to a maximum of $40,000.
Many Senate Republicans would likely prefer to scrap SALT deductions entirely. But they also understand the precarious balance in the House, where the $40,000 cap was key to getting the megabill across the finish line, so any changes to SALT might be more limited.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said as much over the weekend, telling 'Fox News Sunday' that 'we're very cognizant of the political dynamics the speaker is dealing with in the House.'
'At the end of the day, I think we'll find a landing spot, hopefully, that will get the votes that we need in the House,' Thune added.
In any event: Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) is expected to brief the GOP conference on the state of play this evening, according to two people familiar with the situation.
That'll kick off a key but abbreviated week in the Senate, ahead of Thursday's Juneteenth holiday. Senators from both parties will be meeting with the parliamentarian to see what parts of the GOP fiscal package are allowed under the chamber's strict budget rules.
The Senate could potentially then vote on the measure the following week, ahead of its planned recess for Independence Day. The best-case scenario for Republicans is that the House can accept whatever passes the Senate, so there's no need for any further cross-Capitol negotiations.
But we'll see: Thune is already threatening to keep senators in town for the July 4 recess to pass the megabill, if necessary.
MORE ON ALL OF THIS in a bit. But first, congratulations to Goliath on that first Father's Day. And an update: Your recently confirmed IRS commissioner is still being quite active on social media.
There's a big universe out there, apparently: Today marks an even three decades since NASA started its Astronomy Picture of the Day series. (The sunset on Mars does look pretty cool, we have to say.)
Help bring order to our world. Send your best tips and feedback.
Email: [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail] and [e-mail].
You can also reach us on Twitter at @berniebecker3, @tobyeckert, @brian_faler, @ben_guggenheim, @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Tax.
Editor's Note: Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories.
WHAT'S GOING TO MAKE THE CUT? SALT isn't the only pressure point for Republicans on taxes, nor is it the only area where the Senate can be expected to put its stamp on the tax part of the megabill.
Crapo and other GOP senators have basically said it's a done deal that they'd make permanent a trio of key incentives for business that were only restored through 2029 in the House. (Those would be full expensing for capital investments, immediate write-offs for research costs and a less restrictive deduction for companies' interest on debt.)
Elsewhere, it seems increasingly likely that the Senate will at least tweak what's known as the revenge tax, the provision that gives the government tools to retaliate against countries that employ what it sees as discriminatory taxes.
That's likely to include a delay in implementing the proposal, which would give the Trump administration more time to use the revenge tax to convince other governments to back down from digital taxes or the undertaxed profits rule from the global tax deal, which allows other countries to tax American companies in certain situations.
The green energy incentives that Democrats enacted in 2022 also remain a potential flashpoint, while there are some other potential under-the-radar issues that Republicans might confront — like whether to clip SALT deductions for certain service providers, like doctors, lawyers and accountants.
All the while, outside groups and advocates are still trying to influence the tax bill, even if on the margins.
Child Tax Credit: Thune also plugged the GOP's CTC expansion during his Sunday show appearance.
Republicans would boost the child credit to a maximum of $2,500-per-child in the megabill, though their proposed increase has drawn criticism for not doing much to help the poorest families.
Now, Republicans are getting further nudges from the right to further expand the CTC. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and the Christian Employers Alliance sent similar letters to leading Republicans last week asking for a very specific tweak.
As it stands, a household must make at least $2,500 to claim the child credit. Both Gingrich and the Christian employers group praised Republicans for seeking to keep the link between the CTC and work, but argued that it was important to lower the income threshold needed to claim the credit.
'This is a pro-family and pro-work provision, and we should continue to strengthen it,' Gingrich, who helped create the CTC in the 1990s after it was included in the GOP's Contract for America, said in a statement. (For their part, the Christian Employers Alliance said a lower threshold would make it easier for businesses to attract employees.)
Crunching the numbers: Critics of the GOP's child credit proposal frequently point to this statistic — that it doesn't help the 17 million children whose families currently don't qualify for the full incentive.
Columbia University's Center on Poverty and Social Policy took a deeper dive on how the planned GOP expansion would affect individual congressional districts.
Bottom line: Most of the congressional districts with the highest share of children that wouldn't receive the full credit are represented by Democrats — including the top eight and all but four of the top 30 or so.
But interestingly enough, one of those four GOP districts with a particularly large population ineligible for the full credit is represented by Speaker Mike Johnson.
Blast from the past: The nonprofit sector has actively been battling against a range of proposals in the House bill, including a planned tax increase on private foundations.
But here's one that's not getting a lot of attention: The Community Impact Coalition wrote to leading Senate tax writers about a proposal to tax fringe benefits nonprofits offer to employees.
That might sound familiar: The original Trump tax cuts had contained a very similar provision, which ended up causing an uproar and getting rescinded.
The new proposal in the House tax bill includes an exception for churches, who helped lead the effort to kill the previous fringe benefits tax.
Nonprofits are arguing that the tax would lead to administrative burdens that would keep organizations from focusing on their core missions.
'If nonprofit resources are taxed, many critical service providers — like veterans and disaster relief organizations, food banks, and educational programs — could be forced to raise fees or cut services,' the collection of more than 100 groups wrote earlier this month.
Around the World
Bloomberg: 'Colombia Activates Fiscal 'Escape Clause' and Plans Tax Hike.'
More Bloomberg: 'Indian Tax Authorities Chasing Unreported Crypto Transactions.'
Reuters: 'Vietnam parliament approves hiking tax on alcoholic drinks to 90% by 2031.'
AROUND THE NATION
WUSF: 'Florida budget, tax package set for final vote.'
WGME: 'Maine lawmakers face budget deadline as tax increase sparks partisan debate.'
Willamette Week: 'Oregon Cities Clash With Travel Industry Over Whether Tourism Taxes Should Pay for Wear and Tear on Your Favorite Destinations.'
Also Worth Your Time
Déjà vu: 'An old Capitol Hill troublemaker is trying to clinch a megabill deal.'
Pro Education: 'A tax credit in the 'big beautiful bill' could transform school choice.'
Washington Post: '$75 billion firm wins carve-out in tax bill after lobbying push.'
New York Times: 'Trump's Big Bill Would Be More Regressive Than Any Major Law in Decades.'
On The Calendar
A lot of text to consume, hopefully.
Let Morning Tax know about your future events: [e-mail].
Did you know?
The Astronomy Picture of the Day page got 14 views on its first day in 1995.