Navigating 'uncharted' waters: What Trump's trade war could mean for Canadian ports
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Chia pointed out that Trump recently closed a loophole where goods landed in Canada and transported by rail into the States didn't have to pay a harbour maintenance tax of 0.125 per cent.
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How is this playing out in the U.S.?
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Bonded warehouses on the U.S. West Coast where goods can be stored without paying tariffs 'maxed out very, very quickly, within like a week or two in anticipation of all of this,' said Ken Adamo, a shipping analyst with DAT Freight & Analytics in Akron, Ohio.
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Could vessels destined for the U.S. head to Canada instead?
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While some ships that call on the U.S. West Coast could instead steam to Canada, their goods would still face tariffs if shippers tried to get them into the States by train or truck, Adamo said.
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'There's a pretty big wrinkle that was introduced' last week, he said. 'An executive order came down around English language proficiency for truck drivers operating in America. The problem with that being … that a lot of the Canadian cross-border truck drivers (come from a) largely immigrant-fed pipeline of drivers.'
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'This administration has made it very difficult to find any sort of continuity or consistency,' Adamo said. 'Shippers and trucking companies alike are very confused and, frankly, very, very anxious on how to approach the shifting landscape of regulation and global trade policy.'
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Adamo sees a 'hard terminus for a lot of this' in the U.S. back-to-school season.
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'I know it sounds crazy because the kids are still in school right now. But in logistics, we're thinking way upstream of all the school supplies and this year's school clothes and kids' shoes. All of that stuff is going to probably land May, June and July to be on the store shelves when people do all their back-to-school shopping.'
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Americans looking for deals on pencils and lunch boxes might end up dictating U.S. trade policy, he said. 'I don't think the American consumer is going to tolerate empty shelves for back-to-school.'
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Adamo had to read Trump's book, The Art of the Deal, in business school. 'The tactic is you start with a completely outlandish and overexaggerated position and then help negotiate your opponent back to centre,' he said. 'So, my guess is I think most Asian trading partners will get deals done.'
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