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Sensex, Nifty log best day in 4 yrs on India-Pak truce, US-China trade deal
Share market closing bell today, Monday, May 12, 2025: Benchmark Indian equity indices, BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50, logged their biggest intraday gains in the last four years, on Monday, May 12, 2025, as Dalal Street investors celebrated the truce between India and Pakistan—following a period of rising tensions that had nearly escalated into a full-blown conflict. The ceasefire, analysts said, helped ease fears of war, leading to a surge in investor confidence and fueling the rally in the markets.
The BSE Sensex surged by 3,041.5 points, reaching an intraday high of 82,495.97, while the Nifty50 climbed 936.80 points to touch a high of 24,944.80—just 56 points shy of the psychological 25,000 mark during intraday deals on Monday.
Investor sentiment was further bolstered by the trade agreement between the US and China, who jointly announced a 90-day pause on certain tariffs, sparking optimism in global markets and contributing to the widespread rally. Under the deal, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145 per cent to 30 per cent, while China will lower tariffs on American imports from 125 per cent to 10 per cent.
The positive sentiment spread across broader markets, with mid- and small-cap stocks leading the charge. Among the sectoral front, IT stocks outperformed others, followed closely by solid gains in financial services, metals, automobiles, and real estate stocks.
At the close, the BSE Sensex stood at 82,429.90, up by 2,975.43 points or 3.74 per cent from its previous close. With the rebound, the market capitalisation (market-cap) of BSE-listed companies went up by ₹16.15 trillion to ₹432.56 trillion. The day ended in favor of the bulls as 3,545 out of 4,254 traded stocks on the BSE settled higher, while 576 declined, and 133 remained unchanged.
Barring IndusInd Bank and Sun Pharma, all the other 28 Sensex constituent stocks ended higher, with Infosys and HCL Technologies leading the gains. Other notable performers included Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, Eternity, and Tech Mahindra, which saw gains in the range of 5.54 per cent–5.36 per cent.
Mirroring the Sensex, the Nifty50 also ended higher, up by 916.70 points or 3.82 per cent, closing at 24,924.70. The Nifty Midcap100, and Smallcap100 indices settled higher by 4.12 per cent, and 4.24 per cent, respectively.
Rail Vikas Nigam (up 11.71 per cent), Reliance Power (11.25 per cent), HFCL (10.74 per cent), JBM Auto (10.35 per cent), IFCI (10.32 per cent), Escorts Kubota (9.25 per cent), and Oracle Financial Services (8.90 per cent) were among the top gainers in the space.
Nifty IT index outperforms
Among the sectoral front Nifty Index emerged as the top gainer with settling higher by 6.70 per cent led by Oracle Financial Services (8.90 per cent), Infosys (7.69 per cent). READ MORE This was followed by Nifty Metal (5.86 per cent), Realty (5.93 per cent), and Auto (3.42 per cent) indices. Further, all three banking related indices, Bank Nifty, PSU Bank, and Private Bank Indices settled with gains of over 3 per cent each.
The easing of geopolitical concerns and progress on global trade talks brought significant relief to the markets, reflected in a sharp drop in the India VIX volatility index, analysts suggest. Notably, the fear index (India VIX), which gauges the volatility in the markets, ended lower by 14.97 per cent at 18.39 points.
Stock market technical outlook
A confluence of positive geopolitical and economic developments—the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, coupled with a breakthrough trade agreement between the US and China, Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Investments, said, sparked the strongest daily market rally in recent times. The tariff issue had a pivotal role in the stock market's consolidation over the year. The sudden easing of the US-China tariff war, Nair believes, unlocked multiple investment avenues for investors.
"Sustained foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows, along with a resurgence in retail participation fuelled by expectations of a swift improvement in business sentiment, propelled today's upside. However, while the momentum remains strong, the market may enter a phase of consolidation in the near term as investors await concrete signs of earnings growth. In the meantime, mid & small caps are expected to maintain the optimism in the broad market," said Nair.
Nifty50 eyes 25,200
Technically, the sharp rise in the Nifty50, analysts suggest marks a continuation of the uptrend following a three-week consolidation phase. "Having crossed the previous swing high of around 24,857, the index is now poised to inch towards the 25,200 level, while the 24,400–24,600 zone is expected to offer strong support on any dip," said Ajit Mishra – SVP, research, Religare Broking. Meanwhile, Shrikant Chouhan, head - equity research, Kotak Securities, believes that the 24,590 resistance zone has now become a strong support zone for short-term traders. "For day traders, buying on intraday dips and selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy. On the higher side, 25,200–25,300 would be the key resistance areas, while below 24,590 traders may prefer to exit their long positions," said Chouhan.
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