Global Finance Upended by Trump Tariff Reckoning Few Saw Coming
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This is not what global financiers had in mind when they placed their bets on Trump 2.0.
Less than 100 days into the new US administration, bankers from Wall Street to Shanghai's Pudong and the City of London are bracing for soured loans, canceled deals, forfeited fees — and perhaps threats to their own jobs. Credit markets are paralyzed, while mergers and initial stock offerings are being pulled amid fears of recession.
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Politico
07-08-2025
- Politico
Trade preppers
Welcome to Canada Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → Ottawa's early moves ahead of the USMCA review. → The PM convenes Métis leaders in the capital. → The metals sector lobbyists working to influence the Carney crew. Trade war CONTINGENCY PLANNING — It's not entirely clear when Canada, the United States and Mexico will formally review the continental trade pact that has so far withstood the onslaught of DONALD TRUMP's tariffs. At least one federal department once gamed out the possibility Trump would want to renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement soon after returning to the White House. — No surprises (yet): Foreign Affairs Minister ANITA ANAND told Playbook Wednesday evening that the review of the deal will start on time next year. Pro subscribers can read more from our interview with the minister later today. — Moving target: The USMCA is scheduled for review on July 1. Prime Minister MARK CARNEY said this week that he expects the talks to commence in 'about nine months' — most of the way to July. Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC told Playbook last week that he'd spoken with his Mexican counterpart about kickstarting talks as soon as this fall. — Always be prepared: A Natural Resources Canada slide deck dated November 2024 offers clues to what the department was thinking as Ottawa prepared for Trump 2.0. The slides, disclosed under the federal access-to-information law, set out the broad strokes of internal planning for the USMCA review with all the standard fare: 'stakeholder' workshops, interdepartmental confabs, working groups. → 'A potential Trump path': One slide envisions a review more than a year ahead of schedule, an NRCan task force, and 'accelerated prep' for potential talks as early as January — forced by a Trump administration intent on speeding up the calendar. The slide doesn't offer much insight into the department's thinking. Most of the bullet points beneath each heading are redacted under the 'advice and recommendations' provisions of the federal access law. — In case you missed it: On Wednesday, Ontario Premier DOUG FORD advised Ottawa to ready negotiators for an early start. 'I think it'll be coming in November, in my opinion,' he said. — Top of the NYT this hour: Staggering U.S. tariffs begin as Trump widens trade war. — From POLITICO's MEGAN MESSERLY: Why Mexico was the only country to get a 90-day tariff reprieve from Trump. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — The PM will meet Métis leaders at 50 Sussex Drive. The summit runs from 10:10 a.m. until 2:15 p.m., and includes several working sessions: 'Dialogue on Meaningful Consultation, the Major Projects Office and the Indigenous Advisory Council;" 'Métis Economic Prosperity, Partnership and Participation"; and 'Working Together.' — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will hold a press conference in Calgary, Alberta, at 9 a.m. local time. (That's 11 a.m. in Ottawa.) — In Montreal, Canadian tennis phenom VICKY MBOKO plays for the National Bank Open championship at 6 p.m. DRIVING THE DAY MÉTIS MEETUP — Prime Minister MARK CARNEY convenes the third 'major projects summit' in a series when he gathers with Métis leaders today in Ottawa. The PM promised Indigenous leaders earlier this year that he'd consult them on ambitious plans to unlock 'nation building' projects meant to unleash prosperity at home amid a trade war. Today's confab lacks the scale of last month's high-profile check-in with First Nations chiefs, which spanned two days and took over the Canadian Museum of History's Grand Hall. And the PM will stick much closer to home compared to his July 24 summit with Inuit leaders in Inuvik, Northwest Territories (distance from Rideau Cottage: 2,500-plus miles). — Scenic view: Today's summit goes down a 15-minute walk from home at 50 Sussex Drive, also the full-time HQ of the Royal Canadian Geographical Society (and neighbor to Tavern on the Falls, where locals and tourists may gather oblivious to the conversations next door). — Métis reps at the table: The Métis National Council and Métis Nation of Ontario (MNO). → Taking a pass: The Manitoba Métis Federation boycotted the summit, telling reporters on Wednesday that the Ontario-based group that scored an invite is illegitimate. Critics insist the MNO has no claim to Métis heritage. The Manitoba group has also distanced itself from the national council. DAVID CHARTRAND, the president of the Manitoba federation, remained open to meeting with Carney: 'If you want to come and sit down with my cabinet in a government-to-government relationship, we will meet,' he said. 'But if you want to insult us, then we'll see each other in a different political realm in the future.' — Ministers in the room: MANDY GULL-MASTY (Indigenous services); REBECCA ALTY (Crown-Indigenous relations); REBECCA CHARTRAND (Northern and Arctic affairs); DOMINIC LEBLANC ('One Canadian economy'); TIM HODGSON (Energy and natural resources); BUCKLEY BELANGER (Rural development). Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . MORNING MUST-CLICKS — 'There is no place in B.C. this year, and frankly, probably any year, that is going to be safe from the threat of wildfires,' CLIFF CHAPMAN, director of wildfire operations with the BC Wildfire Service, said during a briefing Wednesday. The Canadian Press has details. — 'Getting forest fires under control is also an act of sovereignty,' ALLISON SMITH argues at TorontoToday. — 'The Big Story' pod contemplates the PM's first 100 days in office. — Novelist KATHERINE GOVIER writes in the Globe: 'Canada is wide, and it's hard to love what you don't know.' A must-read for those who fret about who gets to call themself an Albertan. — POLITICO's NICHOLAS WU and colleagues report that voters are greeting Republicans with jeers over the One Big Beautiful Bill Act at their town halls. PROZONE For POLITICO Pro subscribers, here's our latest trade news: — Trump says he will put 100 percent tariff on semiconductors. — Brazil launches WTO case over Trump's tariffs. — US to hike tariffs on India to 50 percent over Russian oil purchases. — EU won't budge on its rules in handshake US trade deal. — How Trump's $150 billion tariff brag could backfire. And our latest Pro policy newsletter: Ford dishes on Lutnick, bashes Trump. LOBBY WATCH STEEL A GLANCE — The Trump administration doesn't appear willing to relent on tariffs slapped on Canada's steel and aluminum sector. But as the Carney government considers its own next steps, a small army of lobbyists is busy making the case for Canadian metals. The two most active organizations rep major players in that world. — Most active companies: ArcelorMittal Dofasco, the steel producer that employs thousands of Hamiltonians, has so far posted dozens of meetings with government officials since the election. Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY has been in the room for several. The company's longtime lobbyist is TONY VALERI, the former Liberal Cabinet minister and Hamilton MP. The Canadian Steel Producers Association has logged dozens of its own tête-à-têtes with various politicians and senior bureaucrats since the Liberal win on April 28. The industry voice's top target is PATRICK HALLEY, the Department of Finance's assistant deputy minister of international trade and finance. The next most frequent meetingmates: KIRSTEN HILLMAN, Canada's top envoy in Washington; IAN FOUCHER, chief of staff to Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE; Joly and her chief of staff, PAUL MOEN. → Don't forget about the other metal: Alcoa Canada, the aluminum-producing giant, has posted 22 meetings — including three apiece with Joly and Energy and Natural Resources Minister TIM HODGSON. — All the vested interests: Each of these organizations has registered in-house or consultant lobbyists who list steel or aluminum among their advocacy priorities: → Sorel Forge, Algoma Steel, Evraz Inc. Canada, Aluminium Association of Canada, Tenaris, Heico, Ivaco Rolling Mills, Atlantic Coated Papers, McNairn Packaging, Canada National Steel Car Ltd., Canadian Institute of Steel Construction, Stelco Inc., United Steelworkers, LNG Canada Development Inc., JFE Shoji Power, Steel-Craft Door Products Ltd., Tata Steel Minerals Canada Ltd., Labatt Breweries, Ford Motor Company of Canada, Rio Tinto Canada Management, Tempel Steel, Nucor Steel, Beer Canada, Morgan Canada Corporation, Wirth Steel, Salzgitter Mannesmann International (Canada), Cantak Corporation, Wohler Canada and the Japan Iron and Steel Federation. — All the door knockers: Federal lobbyists are lining up to rep the metals. All of these firms have clients in the steel and aluminum space: → TACT, Rubicon Strategy, Maple Leaf Strategies, Sussex Strategy Group, Crestview Strategy, McMillan LLP, Summa Strategies, Conlin Bedard LLP, Fratton Park, Ridge Strategy Group, First Lake Solutions, Enterprise Canada, Temple Scott Associates, NorthStar Public Affairs, Prospectus Associates, Loyalist Public Affairs and Grey, Clark, Shih and Associates. Our daily check-in on federal lobbyist registrations and notable meetings around town: — Capital Power, an Edmonton company that wants to power Alberta-based data centers that fuel 'world-changing innovation driven by AI,' posted a July 28 meeting with senior bureaucrats — including MARK SCHAAN, deputy secretary to the Cabinet for AI. — Syntax Strategic's JENNIFER STEWART is lobbying for the Kiewit-Vinci joint venture that is building Ottawa's east-west light rail extension. A top priority: 'create awareness of the financial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on major infrastructure projects, including Ottawa's Light Rail Transit system.' PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to economist CHRIS RAGAN, former MP JIM PANKIW, Aecon executive vice president TIM MURPHY and Coalition Avenir Québec MNA DONALD MARTEL. Noted: The Supreme Court announced that Chief Justice RICHARD WAGNER will lead a visit to Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, next month. — PHILIPPE DUFRESNE, Canada's privacy commissioner, has opened an investigation into a breach at WestJet, our colleagues on the cybersecurity team report. In June, the airline announced a breach where hackers were able to gain access to the airline's systems. Movers and shakers: STEPHANE LEBLANC, a longtime public servant who was most recently deputy director of Canada's Future Fighter Capability Program, launched Sherwood Hamilton Strategies … BEN CARRIERE, a former legislative assistant on the Hill, is now a government relations associate at Blackbird Strategies. From the ethics files: The PM declared a recent trove of gifts, including a sculpture of Winston Churchill from U.K. PM KEIR STARMER … Wireless earbuds from Japanese PM SHIGERU ISHIBA … An Indigenous handcrafted decorative soccer ball by Menchaca Studio, from Mexican President CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM … A framed 'Gallipoli' poster and Akubra Cattleman hat from Australian PM ANTHONY ALBANESE … A 100 percent Afghan hand-knotted carpet by Zuleya, from UAE Deputy PM SHEIKH ABDULLAH BIN ZAYED AL NAHYAN … Blended whisky from Black Fox Farm and Distillery … a Toronto Maple Leafs jersey from Ontario Premier DOUG FORD … a Saskatchewan Roughriders jersey from Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE … wolf mittens from Northwest Territories Premier R.J. SIMPSON … Midnight Ammolite bracelet and cufflinks from Treaty 7 First Nations chiefs … A Canada flag beaded medallion from ROY WHITNEY, chief of the Tsuut'ina Nation … And a beaded medallion from Chiniki First Nation. Starmer also gifted DIANA FOX CARNEY 10 Downing Street decorative tea pot and mugs by Emma Bridgewater … HEIKO VON DER LEYEN gifted the PM's spouse a Longchamp Le Pliage Original XL travel bag. TRIVIA Wednesday's answer: When MARK CARNEY visited the White House in May, President DONALD TRUMP gifted him a framed Washington Capitals jersey (Carney, No. 24). Props to ANDREW BALFOUR, JOHN ECKER, JOHN MERRIMAN, DARREN MAJOR, JOHN PEPPER, BARRY J. MCLOUGHLIN, RAY DEL BIANCO, MORGAN LARHANT, ELIZABETH BURN, RAYLENE LANG, BARBARA WRIGHT, ALEXANDER LANDRY, MALCOLM MCKAY, DARRYL DAMUDE, ROOYA RAHIN, DANIEL PERRY, SEAN SUNDERLAND, JONATHAN MOSER, BOB GORDON, RÉMI AUTHIER, JOHN ALHO, FELIX BERNIER, NATHAN CATO, SEAN SUNDERLAND, DANIEL PERRY, ROOYA RAHIN, MICHAEL HORNAK, SARA MAY and ROBERT MCDOUGALL. Today's question: Which federal building in downtown Ottawa is named after a U.S.-born federal minister who served under MACKENZIE KING and LOUIS ST. LAURENT? Send your answer to canadaplaybook@ Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and MIKE BLANCHFIELD. Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
Yahoo
06-08-2025
- Yahoo
Who's on Trump's shortlist for Jerome Powell's replacement at The Fed
President Trump is narrowing his shortlist to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair. Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller are emerging as top contenders—all are seen as more amenable to interest rate cuts. Trump confirmed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declined the role, saying, 'I want to work with you,' while market-watchers weigh how each candidate could impact Fed independence and dollar strength. In 12 months' time a different hand will be guiding the Federal Reserve. Chairman Jerome Powell is due to stand down in May of next year. Different—not new—because some of the candidates President Trump may be eyeing for nomination are already well-known figures in regional and central banking. The shortlist is getting narrower as the timeline for a nomination announcement draws closer. Last month the president said he would confirm his decision 'very soon,' potentially in a bid to shift attention toward the incoming Fed chairman and away from Powell. This week Trump has also dropped another crumb for spectators: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent won't be moving over to the Fed. Bessent's name had been circulating for the role courtesy of his background and close relationship to the president. But yesterday Trump told CNBC: 'I love Scott, but he wants to stay where he is. I asked him just last night, 'Is this something you want?' [Bessent said], 'Nope, I want to stay where I am. He actually said, 'I want to work with you.' It's such an honor. I said, 'That's very nice. I appreciate that.'' Bessent has been clear that he wanted to remain at the Treasury but would go where the president asked him to, saying earlier this year that he had the 'best job' in Washington and 'would like to stay in my seat through 2029.' With Bessent removing himself from contention, Trump confirmed he now has four names in mind as potential successors to lead the Federal Open Market Committee. The Oval Office has also made at least one of the criteria clear: The next Fed chairman must be more willing to cut rates. Option 1: Kevin Warsh A former member of the Board of Governors at the Fed, Warsh has been seen as a frontrunner for Fed chairman since President Trump took office. Warsh served on the board between 2006 to 2011, acting as administrative governor managing and overseeing the group's operations, personnel, and financial performance. Trump has already talked warmly of Warsh, telling reporters on Air Force One last month that Warsh is 'very highly thought of.' Warsh, currently a visiting fellow in economics at the Hoover Institution and a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, is bullish on the American economy and has supported calls that Trump 2.0 could usher in a golden era for the nation. The White House might also like some of the criticism Warsh has leveled at the Fed's current thinking. Warsh told CNBC a few weeks ago that if he were the president a chief concern would be a Federal Reserve which doesn't recognize the upsides in economic data. 'What I'd be worried about is a central bank that doesn't see any of that. A central bank that is stuck with models from 1978, governance from a prior period, and [doesn't] recognize we could be at the front end of a productivity boom,' Warsh said. 'If I were the president, I'd be worried that [the Fed] might not see it and they might think economic growth is somehow going to be inflationary.' For many years, Warsh has also called for a 'regime change' at the Fed, and argued: 'it's not just about a person, it's about an approach to economics … I'm troubled when I see them moving the goalposts. It is very puzzling to me, how you could think that we should do an emergency rate just last September and now all of a sudden you stand there like a hawk. That's not good for the institution, I don't think it's good for the economy to be changing the goalposts like that.' Potentially a mark against Warsh's name is that he has some characteristics of a hawk—those who would keep the base rate higher in order to keep inflation low. In a conversation with the Hoover Institute earlier this month, for example, he outlined price stability is at the core of restoring Fed credibility. To this end, wrote ING in a note to clients this morning, 'Warsh stands out as the most USD-friendly candidate at this stage … We could see the dollar gain support on his nomination.' Option 2: Kevin Hassett Warsh isn't even the only Kevin in contention, Trump revealed. Yesterday he said: 'Both Kevins are very good, and there are other people that are very good, too.' Leading in the polls at present is Kevin Hassett, currently serving as Director of the National Economic Council. Per prediction market Kalshi, Hassett is being priced with a 41% chance of winning the nomination, while Warsh sits at 29%. Hassett has been an integral figure in Trump 2.0 thus far, supporting on everything from trade deals under the new tariff regime to speaking with House members about key legislation like the 'One Big, Beautiful Bill Act'. This very fact may prove to be the reason Trump may steer away from nominating Hassett: It may raise questions about the independence of the Fed. Despite wanting a friendly face at the head of the FOMC, the White House will be mindful of the fact that the autonomy of the central bank is a fundamental strength of the economy. Trump already learned the hard way how markets react to perceived threats against this independence, after he was forced to walk back a threat to fire Powell and the markets revolted. Questions of transparency and independence have been rife over the past week after President Trump dismissed the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) following surprise and significant revisions to labor data reporting. Asked about how he would address such criticisms, Hassett said: 'I'm an economist, I'm not a politician. But when politicians look at numbers that make them wonder, then that suggests there needs to be more transparency.' In a note overnight, Goldman Sachs suggested that further hints about the next chairman could come in the form of a replacement for Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who resigned last week. Chief U.S. economist, Jan Hatzius, wrote: 'If confirmed very quickly, the new governor might be able to participate in the September 16-17 FOMC meeting. This would likely add further support for rate cuts following last week's two dissents in favor of cuts from Governor Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman. 'The choice is particularly important because the new governor could well take over leadership of the FOMC from Chair Powell.' Option 3: Christopher Waller Governor Waller was a nomination of President Trump's in 2020, in a term ending in 2030, already marking him as an individual who has earned the notice and respect of the current White House. But in more recent months, Waller has raised eyebrows as potentially auditioning for the role of Fed chairman. Notably, he was one of two members who dissented against the recent FOMC decision not to cut the base rate from its current level of 4.25 to 4.5%. As UBS's Paul Donovan wrote late last week: 'Investors are bound to suspect that the rationale amounted to little more than an excited jumping up and down and shouting 'pick me, pick me' in the general direction of the White House.' Waller has lobbied for a rate cut for some time, and hinted that he would like to see a quicker turnaround on when that action may take place. Yet even this has led economists to question whether the governor is a true advocate of a reduction, or is seeking to publicly appeal to the president for the role. As Jeremy Siegel, emeritus professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, wrote for WisdomTree, where he is a senior economist, last month: 'Chris Waller argued … for a potential July rate cut. Is he auditioning to be Powell's replacement? I agree with Waller, we're too far above the neutral rate with tariffs coming.' Option 4: Relative outliers Elsewhere President Trump could look to FOMC member Michelle Bowman as a potential candidate, for she too dissented against the Fed's decision to hold rates. Bowman, vice chair of supervision at the Fed, justified her stance with: 'Inflation has moved considerably closer to our target, after excluding temporary effects from tariffs, and the labor market remains near full employment. With economic growth slowing this year and signs of a less dynamic labor market, I saw it as appropriate to begin gradually moving our moderately restrictive policy stance toward a neutral setting.' 'In my view, this action would have proactively hedged against a further weakening in the economy and the risk of damage to the labor market.' And more widely, economist Judy Shelton's name has also been floated. Shelton was, after all, a Trump nomination to the Fed during his first term but did not receive congressional backing to make it to the board. At the time many expressed concern about how closely Shelton's economic analysis was aligned to the president's—including calls for a larger-than expected cut to rates—and questioned how highly she valued central bank independence. Since then, Shelton has lobbied for the inflation target (currently set to 2%) to be lowered to zero in order to 'make life much less complicated for all of us who have to use the dollar and constantly express things in terms of inflation adjusted.' This story was originally featured on
Axios
29-07-2025
- Axios
U.S. wind sector seeing a rebound — for now
The U.S. wind sector is seeing a rebound for the moment, but big problems loom, per new data and industry analysis of Trump 2.0 policies. Why it matters: Wind is the country's largest source of renewable electricity, providing roughly 10% of U.S. power in 2023. But alongside EVs, it's the tech that President Trump most dislikes — and that's filtering into agency decision-making. Driving the news: The U.S. added 2.1 gigawatts of new wind capacity in the first quarter of 2025, a significant increase from Q1 2024, per Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association. Their latest report sees 8.1 GW of new capacity in 2025, including repowering of projects (a small slice of the total). That's a roughly 56% rise from last year but well below 2020-2022 levels, and additions will average about 9GW over the next five years, they project. Threat level: One sign of headwinds is that new turbine orders plummeted 50% in the first half of 2025 compared to last year. Recent and emerging hurdles like tariffs could further cloud the outlook, even as developers move fast to capture incentives. One is Trump's July 7 directive to the Treasury Department to take a hard line on the new budget law's phaseout of solar and wind credits. More recently, the Interior Department started requiring new layers of review for dozens of regulatory steps and filings for wind and solar projects, which isn't modeled in the latest ACP and Wood Mackenzie outlook. Interior said it's "ending preferential treatment for unreliable, subsidy-dependent wind and solar energy." Friction point: A separate industry analysis finds that the new Interior policy will affect projects far beyond federal lands, which the agency directly regulates but form a small share of the country's renewables portfolio. The analysis — viewed by Axios — finds that 27 of the nearly 70 actions subject to more review "potentially impact projects on private lands." Think everything from reviews under species protection laws to a suite of actions for private lands projects that tie into transmission that crosses public lands. The bottom line: The jump in Q1 installations and the current project pipeline shows "resilience" and the ability to provide "clean, affordable, and reliable energy," said John Hensley, ACP's senior VP of markets and policy analysis.
