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Retail giants snub Tasmania: Why Aldi, Costco resist expansion

Retail giants snub Tasmania: Why Aldi, Costco resist expansion

Herald Sun4 days ago

Tasmanians have long been yearning for the arrival of Aldi and Costco, two retail powerhouses known for their competitive pricing and diverse offerings.
Yet, despite the island state's growing demand, both companies remain conspicuously absent, leaving locals to question why they are being overlooked in the retail landscape.
Aldi, the German-owned supermarket chain, has made its mark across Australia since 2001, boasting over 590 stores nationwide.
Promising 'Australia's lowest prices', Aldi has become a staple for budget-conscious shoppers.
However, Tasmania remains one of the few jurisdictions, alongside the Northern Territory, where Aldi has yet to establish a presence.
The Greens have now stepped forward with a $30 million plan to entice Aldi to Tasmania, arguing that the supermarket's entry would drive down grocery prices and invigorate the local economy.
This initiative reflects a strategic push to provide Tasmanians with more affordable shopping options and stimulate job creation.
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Meanwhile, Costco, renowned for its bulk-buying model and expansive warehouse stores, also remains absent from Tasmania.
Ray White Group head of research Vanessa Rader said the lack of both Aldi and Costco had left Tasmanians with limited choices and potentially higher grocery bills compared to their mainland counterparts.
However, she adds the reason for their absence was perhaps easy to explain.
'It all comes down to population and scale…they just couldn't make it work there because it does need the additional kind of industry or what not,' she said.
'With Costco, I don't think (the Tasmanian) market would sustain any more than one store, so that, plus the additional requirement for distribution…makes it not a viable situation.
'Aldi is a little bit different because you already have your Woolies and Coles, which means the population just isn't there to compete with what's already there
'I think it's a market that's already at capacity in terms of what their requirement for supermarkets is. So I think Aldi is thinking that the market is quite small…so unless there's a change in that population landscape, things aren't going to change and then you also have geographical difficulties in getting stuff there.'
Greens announce $30m plan to entice Aldi to Tasmania
While logistical concerns, market size, and population density may be factors, the persistent demand from locals suggests a ripe opportunity for expansion.
As the situation unfolds, Tasmanians are left wondering if and when these retail powerhouses will recognise the untapped potential of the island state.
The Greens' $30 million proposal stands as a significant gesture towards bridging this retail gap, but whether it will be enough to sway Aldi and Costco remains uncertain.
Tasmanian Greens Senator Nick McKim, who is the party's economic justice spokesman, announced the plan in April, saying bringing Aldi to Tasmania would help ease cost-of-living pressures in the state.
'Coles and Woolworths have had it too good for too long, and Tasmanians are paying the price,' he said.
'A lack of competition means shoppers here are paying at least $15 more on a basket of essential groceries compared to Aldi, which adds up to hundreds of dollars a year.'
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Senator McKim said the Greens would launch a $2m supermarket competition review that would determine the barriers preventing discount supermarkets such as Aldi from establishing themselves on the Apple Isle.
The party would then provide the state government with up to $28m to support the entry of new competitors in the supermarket sector, which could involve subsidising distribution centres, boosting supply chains, and making government land available to supermarket retailers on a competitive basis.
Senator launches petition to being Aldi to Tasmania
Tasmanian independent senator Tammy Tyrrell has also pushed for Aldi to head south to the island state, launching a petition that has attracted thousands of signatures.
'They say imitation is the best form of flattery (and) I'm glad the Greens are finally on board my campaign to bring Aldi to Tassie,' she said.
'The more the merrier – if this puts more pressure on Aldi to make the leap across Bass Strait, I'm happy with that.
'The (Australian Competition and Consumer Commission) says bringing Aldi to town saves people an average of $890 a year. That could be the difference for someone keeping their heater on in winter or not.'
Tasmanian MP Andrew Jenner from the Jacqui Lambie Network is also calling on the state government to invest $1 million in a study to explore the possibility of bringing a Costco or similar low-cost supermarket chain to the island state.
'Research from consumer group Choice has found that the average cost of groceries in Tasmania is 25 per cent higher than on the mainland, despite Tasmanian wages being an average of 10 per cent lower,' Jenner said.
'The report stated that the lack of ALDI, or equivalent low-cost supermarkets in Tasmania is directly contributing to the higher-than-average grocery prices.
'Bringing Costco, or a Costco equivalent, would directly help alleviate the cost-of-living pressures in a fundamental way.'
Aldi has 'no current plan' to come to Tasmania, CEO says
A report published last year by consumer group CHOICE found that Aldi was the most affordable supermarket chain in the country, with the total price of an average basket of groceries being $50.79.
While Aldi has almost 600 stores across Australia, Tasmania is the only state without one.
Even Geelong, which is a similar size to Hobart, is home to Aldi.
Speaking at a Senate inquiry in April last year, Aldi CEO Anna McGrath said the chain had 'no current plan' to open a store in Tasmania, citing supply chain 'complexities'.
'That's not to say that we don't continuously review where we may expand in the future,' she said.
When asked why Aldi was expanding to other smaller regions but not Hobart, Ms McGrath replied it 'goes back to us having a very different business model'.
'For us, the way that we're able to continue to invest in price is to keep our operating costs as low as possible and having the lowest operating costs in the sector,' she said.
'That means when we're identifying where to expand, we do need to consider the additional costs and complexities that are involved.'
The unfolding situation highlights a pressing issue: will Tasmania continue to be sidelined in the retail landscape, or will Aldi and Costco finally answer the call of its residents? The outcome could reshape the state's retail environment and consumer experience for years to come.

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No state-owned businesses will be sold off, the Tasmanian premier has declared, following a week of political turmoil. Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff has ruled out privatisations in an attempt to diffuse opposition attacks, with the possibility of selling some government entities among Labor's reasons for moving a vote of no confidence against the premier. Prominent economist Saul Eslake had been preparing a report on viable opportunities to sell government-owned businesses to support the state's troubled finances. Mr Rockliff has now put a stop to that work. "Labor has forced this early election on the deceitful campaign that our government intends to divest government-owned businesses – before Mr Eslake's work is even completed," he said on Saturday. But Labor shadow treasurer Josh Willie said privatising government assets was "in their DNA" regardless of the latest statements from the premier. "They didn't take it to the last election and they tried to sell Tasmanian assets," he told reporters in Hobart on Saturday. "So they will try to do it again, and the only way to stop them is to not vote for them." The political ructions look to set send Tasmanians back to the polls for the fourth time in seven years unless the Liberal party opts to remove Mr Rockliff and negotiate a new deal with crossbenchers. An election could be called on Tuesday. Senior Liberal figures including Senator Jonno Duniam are calling the prospect of a snap election "nuts". "I would have thought every effort should be put into not going to an election ... the people that lose out most in all this - forget the parliamentarians - it's the people of Tassie," he told ABC Radio. Analysts tip an unpredictable campaign given the nature of the political drama, with candidates from the federal election in May adding another dimension. Ex-federal Liberal MP Bridget Archer is viewed as a likely candidate in Bass should Mr Rockliff hang on. Anti-salmon independent Peter George, who ran Julie Collins close in the safe federal seat of Franklin, told AAP he was considering his options. Opposition leader Dean Winter moved the no-confidence motion due to the state budget, which included ballooning deficits and debt forecasts and the proposals to privatise state assets. However, it's the stadium that looms as the biggest issue. Veteran political campaigner Brad Stansfield, who has worked on the Liberals' last four election wins, said it would be issue No.1. "At the last election ... we mostly kept it hidden from the campaign," he said on his FontCast podcast. "This campaign is going to be the referendum on the AFL stadium that we haven't yet had. It is coming like a steam train." The roofed Macquarie Point stadium is a condition of an AFL licence, with the state government responsible for delivery and cost overruns. But recent polls suggest Tasmanians are not sold on the need for a new stadium. Labor and the Liberals support the stadium, but Mr Stansfield said Mr Rockliff would be the one to pay the electoral price. "If you don't like the stadium, you will vote against the Liberals," he said. Roland Browne, spokesperson for the anti-stadium Our Place group, told AAP they would campaign if there was an election. Mr Browne said he could see a scenario where one or both of the major parties would join the Greens in opposing the project. No state-owned businesses will be sold off, the Tasmanian premier has declared, following a week of political turmoil. Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff has ruled out privatisations in an attempt to diffuse opposition attacks, with the possibility of selling some government entities among Labor's reasons for moving a vote of no confidence against the premier. Prominent economist Saul Eslake had been preparing a report on viable opportunities to sell government-owned businesses to support the state's troubled finances. Mr Rockliff has now put a stop to that work. "Labor has forced this early election on the deceitful campaign that our government intends to divest government-owned businesses – before Mr Eslake's work is even completed," he said on Saturday. But Labor shadow treasurer Josh Willie said privatising government assets was "in their DNA" regardless of the latest statements from the premier. "They didn't take it to the last election and they tried to sell Tasmanian assets," he told reporters in Hobart on Saturday. "So they will try to do it again, and the only way to stop them is to not vote for them." The political ructions look to set send Tasmanians back to the polls for the fourth time in seven years unless the Liberal party opts to remove Mr Rockliff and negotiate a new deal with crossbenchers. An election could be called on Tuesday. Senior Liberal figures including Senator Jonno Duniam are calling the prospect of a snap election "nuts". "I would have thought every effort should be put into not going to an election ... the people that lose out most in all this - forget the parliamentarians - it's the people of Tassie," he told ABC Radio. Analysts tip an unpredictable campaign given the nature of the political drama, with candidates from the federal election in May adding another dimension. Ex-federal Liberal MP Bridget Archer is viewed as a likely candidate in Bass should Mr Rockliff hang on. Anti-salmon independent Peter George, who ran Julie Collins close in the safe federal seat of Franklin, told AAP he was considering his options. Opposition leader Dean Winter moved the no-confidence motion due to the state budget, which included ballooning deficits and debt forecasts and the proposals to privatise state assets. However, it's the stadium that looms as the biggest issue. Veteran political campaigner Brad Stansfield, who has worked on the Liberals' last four election wins, said it would be issue No.1. "At the last election ... we mostly kept it hidden from the campaign," he said on his FontCast podcast. "This campaign is going to be the referendum on the AFL stadium that we haven't yet had. It is coming like a steam train." The roofed Macquarie Point stadium is a condition of an AFL licence, with the state government responsible for delivery and cost overruns. But recent polls suggest Tasmanians are not sold on the need for a new stadium. Labor and the Liberals support the stadium, but Mr Stansfield said Mr Rockliff would be the one to pay the electoral price. "If you don't like the stadium, you will vote against the Liberals," he said. Roland Browne, spokesperson for the anti-stadium Our Place group, told AAP they would campaign if there was an election. Mr Browne said he could see a scenario where one or both of the major parties would join the Greens in opposing the project. No state-owned businesses will be sold off, the Tasmanian premier has declared, following a week of political turmoil. Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff has ruled out privatisations in an attempt to diffuse opposition attacks, with the possibility of selling some government entities among Labor's reasons for moving a vote of no confidence against the premier. Prominent economist Saul Eslake had been preparing a report on viable opportunities to sell government-owned businesses to support the state's troubled finances. Mr Rockliff has now put a stop to that work. "Labor has forced this early election on the deceitful campaign that our government intends to divest government-owned businesses – before Mr Eslake's work is even completed," he said on Saturday. But Labor shadow treasurer Josh Willie said privatising government assets was "in their DNA" regardless of the latest statements from the premier. "They didn't take it to the last election and they tried to sell Tasmanian assets," he told reporters in Hobart on Saturday. "So they will try to do it again, and the only way to stop them is to not vote for them." The political ructions look to set send Tasmanians back to the polls for the fourth time in seven years unless the Liberal party opts to remove Mr Rockliff and negotiate a new deal with crossbenchers. An election could be called on Tuesday. Senior Liberal figures including Senator Jonno Duniam are calling the prospect of a snap election "nuts". "I would have thought every effort should be put into not going to an election ... the people that lose out most in all this - forget the parliamentarians - it's the people of Tassie," he told ABC Radio. Analysts tip an unpredictable campaign given the nature of the political drama, with candidates from the federal election in May adding another dimension. Ex-federal Liberal MP Bridget Archer is viewed as a likely candidate in Bass should Mr Rockliff hang on. Anti-salmon independent Peter George, who ran Julie Collins close in the safe federal seat of Franklin, told AAP he was considering his options. Opposition leader Dean Winter moved the no-confidence motion due to the state budget, which included ballooning deficits and debt forecasts and the proposals to privatise state assets. However, it's the stadium that looms as the biggest issue. Veteran political campaigner Brad Stansfield, who has worked on the Liberals' last four election wins, said it would be issue No.1. "At the last election ... we mostly kept it hidden from the campaign," he said on his FontCast podcast. "This campaign is going to be the referendum on the AFL stadium that we haven't yet had. It is coming like a steam train." The roofed Macquarie Point stadium is a condition of an AFL licence, with the state government responsible for delivery and cost overruns. But recent polls suggest Tasmanians are not sold on the need for a new stadium. Labor and the Liberals support the stadium, but Mr Stansfield said Mr Rockliff would be the one to pay the electoral price. "If you don't like the stadium, you will vote against the Liberals," he said. Roland Browne, spokesperson for the anti-stadium Our Place group, told AAP they would campaign if there was an election. Mr Browne said he could see a scenario where one or both of the major parties would join the Greens in opposing the project. No state-owned businesses will be sold off, the Tasmanian premier has declared, following a week of political turmoil. Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff has ruled out privatisations in an attempt to diffuse opposition attacks, with the possibility of selling some government entities among Labor's reasons for moving a vote of no confidence against the premier. Prominent economist Saul Eslake had been preparing a report on viable opportunities to sell government-owned businesses to support the state's troubled finances. Mr Rockliff has now put a stop to that work. "Labor has forced this early election on the deceitful campaign that our government intends to divest government-owned businesses – before Mr Eslake's work is even completed," he said on Saturday. But Labor shadow treasurer Josh Willie said privatising government assets was "in their DNA" regardless of the latest statements from the premier. "They didn't take it to the last election and they tried to sell Tasmanian assets," he told reporters in Hobart on Saturday. "So they will try to do it again, and the only way to stop them is to not vote for them." The political ructions look to set send Tasmanians back to the polls for the fourth time in seven years unless the Liberal party opts to remove Mr Rockliff and negotiate a new deal with crossbenchers. An election could be called on Tuesday. Senior Liberal figures including Senator Jonno Duniam are calling the prospect of a snap election "nuts". "I would have thought every effort should be put into not going to an election ... the people that lose out most in all this - forget the parliamentarians - it's the people of Tassie," he told ABC Radio. Analysts tip an unpredictable campaign given the nature of the political drama, with candidates from the federal election in May adding another dimension. Ex-federal Liberal MP Bridget Archer is viewed as a likely candidate in Bass should Mr Rockliff hang on. Anti-salmon independent Peter George, who ran Julie Collins close in the safe federal seat of Franklin, told AAP he was considering his options. Opposition leader Dean Winter moved the no-confidence motion due to the state budget, which included ballooning deficits and debt forecasts and the proposals to privatise state assets. However, it's the stadium that looms as the biggest issue. Veteran political campaigner Brad Stansfield, who has worked on the Liberals' last four election wins, said it would be issue No.1. "At the last election ... we mostly kept it hidden from the campaign," he said on his FontCast podcast. "This campaign is going to be the referendum on the AFL stadium that we haven't yet had. It is coming like a steam train." The roofed Macquarie Point stadium is a condition of an AFL licence, with the state government responsible for delivery and cost overruns. But recent polls suggest Tasmanians are not sold on the need for a new stadium. Labor and the Liberals support the stadium, but Mr Stansfield said Mr Rockliff would be the one to pay the electoral price. "If you don't like the stadium, you will vote against the Liberals," he said. Roland Browne, spokesperson for the anti-stadium Our Place group, told AAP they would campaign if there was an election. Mr Browne said he could see a scenario where one or both of the major parties would join the Greens in opposing the project.

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  • The Advertiser

Budget blowout, $1b stadium and new ships sink premier

HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium

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