ECB's Makhlouf Says Inflation Expectations Are Well Anchored
Commenting in a blog post on Friday, the Irish central bank chief also said:
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Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Why are universal credit claims at a record high?
As the government reports a record rise in universal credit claimants, we look at the reality behind the figures. Warnings of a record number of universal credit claimants have been widely reported this week. The government's own data indicates that one million more people are claiming universal credit compared to this time last year — adding to its claims that the UK's benefits bill is "unsustainable". In reality, what is behind the increase is significantly more interesting and complex. Let's unpack how the government arrived at this figure — and what the experts say. People are being moved from legacy benefits onto universal credit When universal credit was introduced back in 2013, the government's aim was to simplify the benefits system and transfer every benefit claimant to universal credit. In reality, the process has been a lot more complicated than the government had hoped. The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) is still transferring some households from older benefits — dubbed legacy benefits — into the universal credit system. According to the government's own figures, between February 2024 and February 2025, a total of approximately 1,747,985 individuals in 1,259,480 households claiming legacy benefits were sent migration notices, notifying them that they would be transferred to universal credit. Of those, around 1.4 million people have moved onto universal credit 'The latest rise in the number of people receiving universal credit is due in part to people being moved across from legacy benefits," Beatrice Orchard, Senior Policy and Public Affairs Manager at the UK's largest foodbank charity, Trussell, told Yahoo News. "When universal credit was set up it was designed to streamline support into one means-tested payment and people are moving from other benefits onto the newer system." Jack Kellam, the head of communications at the Autonomy Institute, echoes this. "From July 2022 around 1.6 million people have claimed UC following a migration notice," he told Yahoo News. "While this clearly doesn't explain all of the current rise, it's a significant amount of people, and we need to keep this in mind when we see figures about growth in universal credit claimants." The TUC's general secretary, Paul Nowak, also believes this is a key factor behind the rise. He told Yahoo News: "The rise in claimants is likely to driven by more people now getting universal credit who would previously have received legacy benefits like job seekers allowance and incapacity benefit." The pension age has risen When the state pension age increases, those who would be claiming their pension earlier are entitled to other state support for longer. Additionally, people who previously would have started receiving the state pension and pension credit must now wait longer before they become eligible for those forms of support As the state pension age in the UK last increased from 65 to 66 for both men and women by October 2020, that knock-on effect will be felt in the system now. The next planned increase — raising the state pension age from 66 to 67 — is scheduled between 2026 and 2028, which is also likely to result in an uptick of claims. "Rising pension age also means that more people are eligible for working-age support for longer," Orchard explained. The cost of living is rising It is clear that so many of us are feeling the pinch due to the rising cost of living — and no-one is feeling that more than lower-income families. If we compare the cost of living to the same period where a record rise in universal credit claims has been measured, the cost of living in the UK has risen by approximately 3.6% in the 12 months from July 2024 to July 2025, according to the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). This marks a continued increase in prices, driven mainly by higher costs in food, fuel, and other essential goods and services. The inflation rate remains above the Bank of England's 2% target. Food inflation reached 4.5% in June 2025, and energy and housing costs have also contributed significantly to the rise. It is worth noting that the average wage in the UK increased by approximately 4.6% year-on-year in the three months to June 2025. However, when adjusted for inflation, real earnings increased by only about 0.5%, making the weakest real wage growth since June 2023 — another challenging financial year in recent memory. Social security as a share of GDP is steady If we were to look at this figure in isolation, the experts are keen to point out that social security spending as a share of the UK's GDP is steady. According to the latest available figures displayed in this chart, the largest social security spend is on pensioners, indicating the government's spend on winter fuel payment, state pension and pension credit is more significant. Spending specifically on benefits for working-age adults (excluding health and housing-related support) declined from 2.8% of GDP in 2007-08 to about 1.9% in 2024-25, according to the Resolution Foundation. While total social security spending has moderately increased as a share of GDP, the composition has shifted notably, with reduced spending on general working-age benefits but increased spending on disability-related benefits. 'Spending on working-age social security as a share of GDP has been stable for the past decade, and is forecast to remain so in the years ahead," Orchard added. People in the UK are getting sicker A rise in disability benefits also gets at another factor: people in the UK are getting sicker. "Poverty is one of the leading causes of ill health," Kellam said. "Many have been trapped just above or below the poverty line for many years – bouncing in and out of work, just about keeping their heads above water. "We should not be surprised that an economy beset by low pay and chronic insecurity – alongside the existing issues the UK has in health and social care – has begun to generate a situation in which more and more individuals are too unwell to work, or need to care for others who are too unwell to work." Kellam explained this issue in detail, arguing that the government has not been proactive enough in tackling some of the biggest causes of ill health in the UK, pre and post the Covid-19 pandemic. "Rather than invest in social housing, successive governments have instead opted to use welfare to subsidise rising private rents," he told Yahoo News. "Rather than develop a robust social care system for an increasingly ageing population, governments have chosen to ground the system subsidising unpaid carers, who are then pushed out of employment and into universal credit. "Rather than tackle the explosion of novel forms of exploitative employment relations in recent decades – from bogus self-employment, to zero-hours contracts and algorithmic management – governments have instead topped up the low wages offered by employers. "At root, we have an economy in which, for many, employers do not pay enough, with anywhere near enough security, with very high housing and living costs," he added. Many people claiming universal credit are in work One other less explored factor accounting is the modest but steady increase in people claiming universal credit are in work. In July 2025, there were 2.2 million working people on universal credit, up from 2.1 million a year before. In reality, Trussell thinks that figure could be closer to 2.7 million. 'Work is not providing the reliable route out of hardship we might expect with 2.7 million people in work needing to top up their income with universal credit," Orchard told Yahoo News. "For many people, disabilities, health conditions and care responsibilities are major barriers to work." *Yahoo News has reached out to the DWP for comment.
Bloomberg
10 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Citi Pitches First-of-Its-Kind Debt for Ukraine Reconstruction
Citigroup Inc. has been working on a long-shot bid to put together a deal that it says would help Ukraine fund its reconstruction — part of a push by the Wall Street giant to secure its place in one of the biggest financing opportunities of the coming years. The bank has been sounding out investors on a potential transaction since late last year, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal would allow the state-owned grid operator NPC Ukrenergo to refinance a chunk of its debt on more attractive terms, some of the people said. The savings could be used to help rebuild Ukraine's power grid, which has been a target of Russia's attacks.
Forbes
10 minutes ago
- Forbes
Unable To Plan In 2025? Use AI To ‘Leave No Scenario Behind'
During in-person discussions with boards and senior leaders in Asia, the Americas and Europe this summer, the directors and executives cited the inability to plan as their single greatest business challenge in 2025. Consequently, effective leaders are conducting robust scenario planning to avoid stagnation or delayed decision making as recent advances in generative AI change how they approach scenario development. Why are businesses unable to plan? The global leaders provided several concurrent challenges that make planning difficult: Said one senior executive recently, 'We used to have a core scenario in place with a handful of back-ups, but now we need to have literally hundreds of options on the table and know which one to follow at any given time. And the answer can change daily or weekly and vary by product line or country.' The role of scenario analysis: Rehearsing the future Peter Schwartz, a pioneer of scenario planning and author of The Art of the Long View, likened the use of scenarios to 'rehearsing the future.' Similar to rehearsing a theater production, the process of scenario development historically required a collaborative effort of numerous individuals and several days, weeks, or months of refinement before the scenarios were ready for their intended audience. This traditional approach to scenario development generally was time-consuming and resource intensive. The role of AI in scenario planning: 'No Scenario Left Behind' Recently in Silicon Valley, PruVen Capital Managing Partner Ramneek Gupta shared the concept of 'no scenario left behind.' He and his colleagues have been studying advances in scenario planning and funding solutions that could enable business leaders to leverage advanced AI such as large language models (LLMs) and large geotemporal models (LGMs). LGMs use frameworks that analyze and reason across both time and space to exhaustively simulate virtually any and every event and scenario. These AI models provide dynamic risk modeling and real-time simulations for a vast array of business scenarios, allowing business leaders to address the inability to plan. WTW's Jessica Boyd and Cameron Rye explain in a recent article that advances in generative AI tools have enabled the rapid generation of numerous scenario narratives across a wide range of disciplines. These models accelerate the traditional, resource-heavy process of scenario development, streamlining the steps while introducing novel perspectives that might be missed by human analysts. They help overcome the limitations of human imagination that occur when people overlook or underestimate potential risks that have not yet happened in historical data. This can reduce potential blind spots that otherwise leave organizations vulnerable to highly disruptive events. Already, AI breakthroughs have enabled the next stage of scenario planning using advanced language models in areas such as weather forecasting, including hurricane landfall predictions, as well as political and economic modeling. These models provide the opportunity to expand beyond the traditional exploratory scenarios that most businesses currently use. For example, normative scenarios (similar to a reverse stress test) can add significant value when they are built around specific business objectives. Further, within the UK and Europe, new regulations focused on financial institutions have sparked considerable attention on scenario testing (in the U.K.: Operational Resilience 2025 and in the EU: Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA)). These rules have further increased the importance of well-developed and defined scenarios, including scenario testing with third parties. How to start scenario planning and conducting an impact analysis Recently, WTW's Laura Kelly explained how scenario building and impact analysis have become a crucial part of business planning and risk management. She suggests three key steps in scenario planning and impact analysis: Effective leaders are not halted by uncertainty but rather mobilize around it. They identify the broad range of scenarios that might occur in a given set of circumstances, prioritize the greatest risks as well as the solutions that can mitigate these risks, and enable the company to thrive.
