Historic Loss of Congressional Seats Looms Amidst California Redistricting Clash

Yahoo

09-08-2025

Historic Loss of Congressional Seats Looms Amidst California Redistricting Clash originally appeared on L.A. Mag.
In the mid-20th century, California emerged as a cornerstone of Democratic Party political power. Each decade brought a population boom, and with it, a growing voice in Washington. Between 1950 and 1990, the state gained an average of six new seats in the U.S. House of Representatives per apportionment cycle, largely due to a wave of migration, economic growth and national influence.But now, that era is ending. According to new projections, the state could lose as many as four seats in the 2030 apportionment — a stunning reversal that would mark the largest single-decade loss in its history.The latest data from the Brennan Center for Justice, the National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC), and the American Redistricting Project all forecast a significant decline in California's representation. At the same time, red states like Texas and Florida are poised to gain up to four seats each — a shift that could bolster Republican power in Congress and further weaken California's influence in federal policymaking.At the heart of California's historic slowdown is a substantial shift in demographics. High housing costs, pandemic-era shifts to remote work and the outmigration of working families and retirees have contributed to a population drop of more than 412,000 people between 2020 and 2023.
This decline has significant political consequences. Analysis by the San Francisco Chronicle shows that California's Democratic strongholds are shrinking fastest. From 2020 to 2023, California districts that leaned more than 20 points to the left of the national average lost the most residents, while Republican-leaning districts gained residents.As California's political clout shrinks, Governor Gavin Newsom is escalating a partisan standoff with Texas, where state Republicans are already attempting to redraw congressional maps. Texas Governor Greg Abbott called a special session to approve new, more favorable GOP districts.Newsom, in response, floated a bold countermove:'Two can play that game,' Newsom wrote on X, indicating that he may try to redraw California's maps to benefit Democrats, despite the state's laws against partisan gerrymandering.
Newsom's idea has split Democrats. Some strategists argue that redistricting is now a tool for political survival — a necessary counter to GOP tactics. Others are warning of legal and moral concerns."[By] legitimizing the race to the bottom of gerrymandering, Democrats will ultimately lose," said Assemblymember Alex Lee, the head of the California Legislature's Progressive Caucus, to Politico.California's redistricting authority currently rests with an independent citizen commission, created by voters through a 2010 ballot measure. Upending that structure would likely require a constitutional amendment, and could trigger legal challenges — especially if the effort is seen as a power grab, rather than a policy adjustment.Still, some experts argue that Newsom has little to lose."Maps that are really pretty good for Dems are still in place," said redistricting expert Paul Mitchell to the Sacramento Bee. "There's no downside to trying."But if California does lose four seats, the pressure will mount on Democrats to decide whether to double down on fair maps and risk falling behind, or to embrace the political hardball they've long criticized. Either way, the outcome could reshape the national balance of power for years to come.
This story was originally reported by L.A. Mag on Jul 22, 2025, where it first appeared.