Massive rain front likely to spark multi-state severe weather warnings as low up to 3,500km in length hits NSW, Victoria, Queensland, NT this week
The front is one of three rainmaking systems set to sweep the entire country from west to east by the end of this week.
Some areas could effectively double their year-to-date rainfall between Monday and Sunday during what is expected to be the best rainfall event of the 2025 winter season.
Friday is the big day for southern Australia with 10-30mm likely for most of SA, north-west Victoria and western NSW. Picture: Sky News Australia
By Saturday, the weather system will extend some 3500km in length. Picture: Sky News Australia
It's a welcome forecast for southern growing regions, well into the third year of drought after a record-low 24 months of rain.
Back-to-back years of drought in the south
Since mid-2023 a lack of cool season rain events has caused rainfall deficiencies to grow and grow in many of our key farming regions – especially Western Australia's Wheatbelt, South Australia's Agricultural regions, south-western Victoria and northern Tasmania.
For southeast SA in particular, the situation has been grim as the landscape turns into a dustbowl, with the region entering its third year of drought, capped off by the driest January to May period on record.
Southern Australia has suffered through severe drought conditions in recent years. Picture: Bureau of Meteorology
This has significantly reduced the ability of the land to sustain growth – even when the rain has arrived, as the soil moisture at the root zone dries out.
The lack of rain, especially during the key cool season from April to October, is attributed to weather patterns being dominated by high pressure.
Simply put, if high pressure sits too far south in winter, it acts like a bouncer of sorts, stopping the passage of rain-bringing cold fronts.
This promotes sustained warmer and drier conditions than usual, limiting rain to kick start to autumn cropping season in many areas.
Low Cool Season rain linked to Climate Change
This is part of a recognised trend in Australia's climate in the last several decades.
The CSRIO noted in the State of the Climate 2024 that, while Australia's rainfall is highly variable across seasons, the long-term trend has been an increased number of highs lingering over southern parts of the country.
This has been determined to be a direct result of a warmer climate.
This in turn has seen a pronounced long-term trend 'towards drier conditions across the south-west and south-east of Australia, with more frequent periods of below-average rainfall, especially for the cool season months from April to October'.
In a nutshell, climate change is reducing our cool season rain in many of our key food bowls.
Rainfall in southern Australia has reduced in recent decades, according to CSIRO data. Picture: Sky News Australia
More rain needed in winter 2025
Back to this season.
Thankfully, there has been a change in recent weeks with cold fronts finally cracking through the barricades of high pressure, delivering close to average rainfall in June in far southern WA, southern SA and above average rain in western Victoria.
While welcome, it's but a small step toward long-term drought breaking rain.
We need more rain events over a sustained period to break the drought.
Rainfall since April 1 has been lower than average in key southern farming regions, and the Murray-Darling Basin. Picture: Sky News Australia
Weather patterns shifting to favour rain
This week, a clash of Antarctic vs tropical weather systems will finally bring a big shift in our weather patterns, and it's already delivering the rain.
From Monday to Tuesday, the first cold front of the week crossed WA, SA and the eastern states with gusty winds, cold temperatures and welcome rain; but it was a mere entrée to the main that is set to arrive on our western coastline on Wednesday morning.
The next cold front is not alone – it's going to link up with moisture laden air feeing inland from the tropics – and the mix of cold air in the south, and humid air further north is set to deliver the season's best rain so far.
It all kicks off on Wednesday morning in the west, with the front hitting the coast with heavy falls with thunderstorms.
By Thursday, the front and associated low pressure system will bring light rain across WA and into SA.
Friday is the big day for southern Australia with 10-30mm likely for most of SA, north-west Victoria and western NSW.
The best news is that the expected precipitation will be widespread soaking rain, rather than "hit or miss" showers.
Most areas therefore are likely to benefit from good rainfall totals.
Forecast rain for the coming week. Picture: Sky News Australia
By Saturday, the weather system will extend some 3500km long as rain and storms spread from the NT into QLD, and rain totals of 10-30mm for the Murray-Darling Basin and across northern VIC.
Follow-up rain in cold southerlies will push over southeast SA whilst snowfall increases over the Alps.
The Bureau of Meteorology is likely to issue multi-state severe weather warnings for damaging winds as the powerful low rolls over the south-east.
Front number three is likely to be weaker, with showers spreading from WA on Sunday to the east cats by Tuesday.
From coast to coast, up to 80 per cent of the nation can expect rainfall in the coming week, with the heaviest falls upwards of 25-50mm falling in areas that truly need it.
While far from drought-breaking, this event will bring the most significant drought relief of 2025 so far.
Alison joined Sky News Australia as a broadcast meteorologist in August 2019 and has previously worked in the oceanography and meteorological fields for the Royal Australian Navy. As well as keeping Australians up to date on-air with the latest forecasts, she also writes for SkyNews.com.au about the key weather stories of the day.
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