logo
As Trump struggles to secure trade deals, has Beijing's hand been strengthened?

As Trump struggles to secure trade deals, has Beijing's hand been strengthened?

The United States failed this week to reach a tariff deal with Japan, a key Pacific Rim ally, and has threatened to notify multiple countries of new duty rates on imports after talks with only one, the United Kingdom, have shown any results.
Those developments, which made the US look weak in the short term, should prompt China to take a harder line with Washington on reaching a deal, analysts said.
China, the world's second-largest economy, was hit especially hard by US President Donald Trump on April 2, which he dubbed
'Liberation Day' , when he raised duties on Chinese imports to more than 100 per cent. Citing concerns over US trade deficits, he also imposed double-digit tariffs on imports from many other Asian nations.
Country-specific 'Liberation Day' tariffs were put on hold for 90 days the following week – until July 9 for most countries – pending trade negotiations. Following talks in Switzerland in early May, those on China were also paused for 90 days, until August 12.
Beijing's negotiators would draw strength from the US threat to notify trading partners of new duties and the lack of a US-Japan deal because both showed it was hard for Washington to get what it wanted through talks this summer, said Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong.
'These kinds of threats should embolden the Chinese negotiators because it's a sign of desperation,' Chen said.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Hong Kong still faces ‘severe' security threats but must seize the day: Xia Baolong
Hong Kong still faces ‘severe' security threats but must seize the day: Xia Baolong

South China Morning Post

timean hour ago

  • South China Morning Post

Hong Kong still faces ‘severe' security threats but must seize the day: Xia Baolong

Hong Kong still faces 'complex and severe' external and internal national security threats that it should be vigilant about, while leveraging its unique strengths to boost connectivity with the world and integrate with the country, a senior Beijing official has said. Setting out a review of the city's recent chaotic past, Xia Baolong, director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, on Saturday laid down directions for Hong Kong which he said had entered a new 'chapter' of development after the implementation of the national security law five years ago. The local government should improve its governance, react to trends in a timely manner and solve deep-seated conflicts in society, while the city should also remain vigilant over persistent national security threats, he stressed. 'One should not assume that all is well in Hong Kong. We should never forget about the pain when the wounds are healed,' Xia said, warning that there were still people who were determined to smear the legislation or threaten authorities with new forms of 'soft resistance'. 'The situation facing Hong Kong in maintaining national security remains complex and severe,' Xia added. '[The city] should maintain and consolidate its hard-earned stability through firmly grasping the practical requirements of maintaining national security under the 'one country, two systems' principle.'

Israel says Iran's supposed nuclear programme delayed by 2 years amid fresh attacks
Israel says Iran's supposed nuclear programme delayed by 2 years amid fresh attacks

South China Morning Post

timean hour ago

  • South China Morning Post

Israel says Iran's supposed nuclear programme delayed by 2 years amid fresh attacks

Israel claimed on Saturday it has already set back Iran's presumed nuclear programme by at least two years, a day after a warning by US President Donald Trump of a 'maximum' of two weeks for Tehran to avoid possible American air strikes. Advertisement Trump has been mulling whether to involve the US in Israel's bombing campaign, indicating in his latest comments that he could decide before the two-week deadline he set this week. Israel said Saturday its air force had launched fresh air strikes against missile storage and launch sites in central Iran, as it kept up a wave of attacks it said were aimed at preventing its rival from developing nuclear weapons – an ambition Tehran has denied. 'According to the assessment we hear, we already delayed for at least two or three years the possibility for them to have a nuclear bomb,' Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said in an interview published on Saturday. Saar said Israel's week-long onslaught would continue. 'We will do everything that we can do there in order to remove this threat,' he told the German newspaper Bild. Advertisement Top diplomats from Britain, France and Germany met their Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in Geneva on Friday and urged him to resume talks with the US, which had been derailed by Israel's attacks.

Who are Iran's true allies and will they help if US joins the war?
Who are Iran's true allies and will they help if US joins the war?

Asia Times

time2 hours ago

  • Asia Times

Who are Iran's true allies and will they help if US joins the war?

As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic. While considering a US attack on Iran's nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran's supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him 'an easy target.' He has demanded 'unconditional surrender' from Iran. Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program. So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid? Has Iran's 'axis of resistance' fully collapsed? Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure. This so-called 'axis of resistance' includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran's influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria before it was toppled last year. Members of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) carry images of comrades killed in US airstrikes in western Iraq in 2024. Photo: Ahmed Jalil / EPA via The Conversation These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement. However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network. Hezbollah — once Iran's most powerful non-state ally — has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad's regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region. That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen. The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly-sized contingent of fighters in Yemen. Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran — as the region's only Shiite-led state — religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region. The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata'ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF's more hardline factions, promised to do so: If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation. Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supply flows. Houthi supporters hold anti-US and Israel placards and wave the flags of the Iran-backed 'axis of resistance' during a protest in Yemen's capital. Photo: Yahya Arhab / EPA via The Conversation Will Iran's regional and global allies step in? Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan — the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal. For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel's actions in Gaza. In a sign of Pakistan's importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country's army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour. Pakistan's leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran's president 'unwavering solidarity' in the 'face of Israel's unprovoked aggression.' And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will 'think many times before taking on Pakistan.' These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention. Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war. In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations. These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries — including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — have jointly condemned Israel's actions and urged de-escalation. It's unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US. Iran's key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel's strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council. However, neither power appears willing — at least for now — to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US. Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran's stability. This is due to Iran's long-standing 'Look East' policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy. However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly. Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad's regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia's closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn't want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration. China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts. Ali Mamouri is research fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store