A warmer winter is on its way, NIWA says
John Lewis
,
Otago Daily Times
Climate scientists are predicting winter 2025 could be warmer than usual.
Photo:
Tom Kitchin
Electricity bills may deliver less of a hammering this winter if NIWA's outlook for the next few months comes to fruition.
It shows temperatures from June to August are "very likely" to be warmer than average this winter, meaning fewer cold snaps and frosts than usual.
NIWA National Climate Centre forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific remained neutral at present, but there were "residual signals" that indicated weak La Nina conditions were persisting.
Occasional La Nina-like atmospheric patterns might still emerge over the next three months, he said. "However, international guidance indicates about a 70 percent chance for the tropical Pacific to remain in an Enso-neutral state over the next three-month period."
He said higher-than-normal atmospheric pressure was expected to the east of the country, leading to northeasterly flow anomalies that might shift to a more northwesterly direction towards the end of the three-month period.
That means seasonal air temperatures are expected to be above average across all New Zealand regions for the winter season.
"While cold snaps and frosts will occur, they are expected to be less frequent than usual."
On the West Coast, Southern Alps and foothills, inland Otago, and Southland, temperatures were very likely to be above average, he said.
Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal.
Temperatures were also very likely to be above average along coastal Otago, he said.
"Rainfall totals are most likely to be in the near normal range, and soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal."
Brandolino said for the remainder of the calendar year, ENSO-neutral conditions were expected to persist.
"The guidance available, however, suggests the possibility for La Nina conditions to return by summer 2025-2026."
La Nina can bring more northeasterly winds to New Zealand, leading to drier conditions in the south and southwest of the South Island.
-
This story was first published by
Otago Daily Times
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
RNZ News
an hour ago
- RNZ News
Reserve Bank's statement a 'dovish pivot'
Photo: RNZ While the Reserve Bank's 25 basis point cut to the Official Cash Rate was in line with expectations, economists say the decision came with a "dovish pivot", prompting greater expectations for further rate cuts. The country's biggest bank, ANZ, now expects two further cuts to happen in October and November, compared to their previous forecast of November and February. "While a 25bp cut was universally expected, the forecasts and the tone of the discussion were much more dovish than we - or the market - had anticipated," ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said. "We thought this week would be too early for the RBNZ to pivot to our view of things, but that's precisely what happened," she said. Financial markets also viewed the RBNZ statement as dovish, with the New Zealand dollar falling sharply against its major trading partners after the announcement. "The RBNZ has today brought about a meaningful easing in monetary conditions that will help shore up the economic recovery," Zollner said. "With upside inflation risks looking contained, that's the appropriate strategy, in our view." Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said the housing market effects from Wednesday's decision were likely to be small. "If anything, the possibility of more falls in mortgage rates than previously thought could lift activity and house prices a bit," he said. "But those rate changes may be fairly minor." "And in the meantime, as the RBNZ has indicated, the economic and labour market outlook is still disappointing - which will tend to weigh on housing, as it's already doing." Davidson said concerns about job security may mean that existing borrowers shifting to lower interest rates might decide to save their extra cash or reduce the term of their loan, rather than spending it in the economy or the property market. Australian economist David Bassanese from Betashares said the RBNZ's decision was a "missed opportunity" for a 50 basis point cut. The decision by the RBNZ to reduce the OCR to 3 percent was split, with four members favouring a smaller 25 basis point cut, compared to the two members who wanted a 50 basis point cut. "The timid policy response in the face of a weak domestic economy does pose the risk of the economy tipping back into recession," Bassanese said. "Arguably, the RBNZ could have been justified in applying some shock therapy to the moribund economy with a larger-than-expected 0.5 percent rate cut today," he said. "In a sense, that was a missed opportunity."
RNZ News
an hour ago
- RNZ News
Why OCR decision may be good news for home loan rates
The Reserve Bank's monetary policy committee took the decision to vote on whether the OCR should be cut by 25 or 50bps. Photo: RNZ A signal from the Reserve Bank that there could be two more cuts in the official cash rate to come could help drive down home loan rates over the coming weeks. The bank cut the official cash rate by 25bps to 3 percent on Wednesday, as widely expected. But what came as a surprise was news the monetary policy committee took the decision to a vote on whether the cut should be 50bps or 25. The bank has also lowered its forecast track to indicate a 2.6 percent OCR through next year. It had forecast 2.9 percent previously. Because the bank cuts in 25bps increments, that indicates it thinks it is possible that the rate could drop to 2.5 percent. Squirrel chief executive David Cunningham said that was likely to mean that one-year swap rates dropped 15 to 20bps in the near term and could bring one-year home loan fixes down to 4.5 percent over the next month or two. He said the market was likely to be surprised by the fact that a 50bps cut was considered. Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank, has been a vocal proponent of getting the rate to 2.5 percent. "Then hopefully things start picking up because what we've seen so far is relief - business going 'thank God I'm not paying interest rates that I was paying last year. But it's not at levels that get them excited and get them to invest. "The Investment Boost from the government is great but you need businesses willing to spend money on the investment and they're not and I think interest rates are part of that." ANZ senior economist Miles Workman said banks had moved interest rates ahead of the OCR so they might not shift a lot in the immediate term. But he said there should be an impact on floating rates. Infometrics principal economist Nick Brunsdon agreed the 25bp cut had been fully priced into home loan rates in cuts over the past two weeks. "Immediate cuts are unlikely to follow today's announcement. "However, there were broader signals in the Reserve Bank's announcement which imply further cuts to the OCR - and home loan rates - later this year. The Reserve Bank's projection effectively allows for two further 0.25 percent cuts before 2026. Markets won't treat this as a dead certainty, but we would expect to see banks to start moving rates part of the way down before the next review in October." Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
RNZ News
5 hours ago
- RNZ News
NEMA identifies mobile phone alert problems during tsunami warning
Photo: RNZ The National Emergency Management Agency has revealed what caused people to get multiple alerts to their phones - or no alerts at all - during the tsunami scare caused by the 8.8 earthquake off Russia last month. The answer boils down to a combination of individual device settings, cell tower coverage and where the tsunami alert was sent - for example, those living far away from coastal areas were not included in the alerts. "We know explanations are little consolation for those who were awoken by alerts in the middle of the night," said NEMA director Civil Defence Emergency Management John Price in a review the agency released on Wednesday. "We are very sorry that this happened, and we're looking at ways to address this in future. However, we make no apologies for getting the message out to keep people safe." "NEMA only issued two alerts - at 4.13pm on 30 July and 6.30am on 31 July - but some people received multiple alerts during the night. We've discovered this is likely related to overnight software updates and device settings. "As for those who didn't receive alerts, tsunami alerts are only sent to coastal areas, so if you were inland then we didn't send you the message because you were not at risk." NEMA's John Price. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone Some people reported receiving up to 50 mobile alerts. Marlborough resident Terry Costello told RNZ he got the first alert on that Wednesday afternoon, followed by many more. "By the time I went to bed at 10pm, they were still going on and there'd been 32 of them by then. And I turned my phone off at 10pm and went to bed. And I turned it on again at 7am this morning and since then I've had another 16. So that's 48 altogether I've had." NEMA laid out several reasons why this might have happened: "As we don't have any control over how individual devices behave, we can't completely stop these issues from happening again - but we are looking at ways we can reduce their impact," Price said. Alerts use cell broadcast technology known as geotargeting to send alerts through cell towers in a selected area which can be the entire country or down to a small section of a city. "We identify the cell towers from all three telecommunications companies in the hazard area, draw a shape around them, and send the message to the area inside that shape," Price said. Some reported not getting the alerts at the same time as others. People might have received the 4.13pm or 6.30am alerts later because they entered the broadcast area. "We continued to transmit these alert broadcasts for several hours. This was so people entering the area later still got them. You might have got an alert when commuting home at 5.30pm, or into work at 8am. An emergency alert sent on Thursday, warning of strong currents and surges following the Russia earthquake. Photo: RNZ "The most likely answer is that you were outside the coastal areas we sent the alert to. But then you entered the broadcast zone at a later time, triggering the alert on your phone." If a person's phone was off or in flight mode they would receive the alert once it was turned back on. Some may not have gotten an alert at all during the tsunami scare, but that could be because it was aimed only at coastal regions - which admittedly covers most of the country, but not all of it, Price said. "Do you live in Hamilton? Palmerston North? Geraldine? Or perhaps an inland suburb of a coastal city? Then don't worry - we never sent it to you." In some households, there were reports that one person got the alert but another person did not. This is typically due to being on the border of the geotargeted broadcast area, Price said. "The geotargeted areas aren't a clean border. It depends on where the cell towers are and how far they transmit. "If some people in your household get the alert and others don't, you're probably right on the border and those who didn't get the alert may have a different network provider or are connected to a different cell tower than those who did." NEMA also has a section on their website where people can troubleshoot issues with alerts. The second tsunami alert that came at 6.30am on 31 July also drew a lot of criticism at the time on social media, with one person on Reddit calling it "an anxiety inducing alarm clock". However, NEMA said it has a statutory responsibility to warn of the ongoing risks as people began their day. NEMA chief executive Dave Gawn defended the early hour, writing in an editorial that "this is where the tough decision making comes in". "We knew we would wake some people up. We knew there'd be criticism. But we also knew the tsunami activity - while not spectacular or scary to witness - posed a grave risk to every one of those people. "We're hard-wired in our profession to plan for the worst case scenario. Imagine if a mother or father - having not received any alerts since the previous afternoon - assumed the threat had passed. Later that morning, they take their toddler to the beach for a paddle, only to helplessly watch their child get swept away by a fierce current." The magnitude 8.8 Russia earthquake caused tsunami alerts around the Pacific. Photo: AFP People cannot opt out of the mobile alerts, and the only way to avoid them is turning off your phone entirely or putting it in airplane mode. Price said that despite the kinks in last month's tsunami alert, NEMA had confidence in the system overall. "The good news is that there is no problem with the systems we use to send the messages," he said. "The alerts were effective in reaching the targeted coastal areas and getting the message out to stay away of the water while dangerous tsunami activity was happening. "We sent alerts to over three million mobile devices around the country, and when you consider the sheer variety of makes, models, and software, it's inevitable some variations will emerge at the receiver end. "After every emergency, we debrief to identify what went well and what needs to improve. We're working through this now to ensure we're doing the best we can at keeping people safe from tsunami and other threats." NEMA said they are still analysing the tsunami event and have not yet identified any potential changes in the system they may make. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
