Mission Not Accomplished
Israel may have astonished much of the world with its tactical skill in its recent war against Iran, but at least for now, it's lost. With the help of cheerleaders on Fox News, Israel pulled Donald Trump into its war; The Times reported on his eagerness to take credit for a mission that appeared to be succeeding wildly. But then Trump turned around and forced Israel to back down, declaring a cease-fire and lambasting the country for its continued bombing.
If that cease-fire holds, it will mean, thankfully, that this harrowing episode has concluded without triggering World War III, as some feared. But it also hasn't achieved Israel and America's primary objective, which was ending Iran's nuclear program. Indeed, it now may be more likely, not less, that Iran will become a nuclear power.
On Tuesday, The Times, The Washington Post and CNN all reported on a preliminary classified report from the Defense Intelligence Agency, which found that America's bombing campaign set back Iran's nuclear program by months, not years. It's early, but Iran appears to have removed much of its highly enriched uranium before the American attack, possibly to secret facilities. The sites that were hit apparently didn't sustain as much damage as people in the administration had hoped, with many centrifuges remaining intact.
Meanwhile, Israel has shown Iran the extent of its intelligence penetration into the country and cannot, at least for the foreseeable future, continue its war without enraging Trump. Nor is Trump likely to restart the war anytime soon, since doing so would puncture his narrative of success.
'Now the U.S. and Israel have basically demonstrated their capabilities,' said Jon Wolfsthal, who was a senior director for arms control and nonproliferation on Barack Obama's National Security Council. 'They shot their shots,' he said, and they neither got rid of Iran's nuclear program nor toppled its regime.
Iran has obviously been weakened and humiliated by Israel's assault, which revealed how profoundly its government had been infiltrated by foreign intelligence, and how isolated it is globally. But its own pitiful performance in the war could create new incentives for it to rush toward a nuclear weapon. 'They've been attacked by two nuclear states,' said Wolfsthal. 'It's made getting a nuclear weapon seem more necessary from a security point of view.'
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CNN
7 minutes ago
- CNN
Takeaways from New York City's mayoral primary: Mamdani triggers a political earthquake – and Republicans rejoice too
Zohran Mamdani delivered a political earthquake Tuesday in New York City's Democratic mayoral primary, riding progressive demands for change in a city facing an affordability crisis to the brink of a stunning victory. Democratic voters rejected a scandal-plagued icon of the party's past, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Instead, they backed a 33-year-old democratic socialist who energized young voters and progressives with a campaign that could come to represent the first draft of a new playbook. 'I will fight for a city that works for you, that is affordable for you, that is safe for you,' Mamdani said in his celebratory speech just after midnight. 'We can be free and we can be fed. We can demand what we deserve,' he said. Mamdani's viral, go-anywhere, talk-to-anyone style of campaigning could send shockwaves through the Democratic Party nationally as its leaders and incumbents face calls from frustrated voters for authenticity and aggressiveness. Republicans, meanwhile, moved immediately to elevate Mamdani, seeing an opportunity to campaign against ideas they see as unpopular with swing voters nationally. The formal outcome won't be known until at least July 1, when New York City releases the initial ranked-choice results. But Mamdani held a clear lead Tuesday night, and Cuomo told supporters he had called Mamdani and conceded the primary. 'Tonight is his night. He deserved it. He won,' Cuomo said. Mamdani's upstart campaign had a lot to overcome — Cuomo's universal name recognition, massive financial backing, endorsements from party leaders and unions — and he acted like it. Some of his Democratic rivals portrayed his positions as pie-in-the-sky and impossible to pay for. Mamdani, though, sold his ideas as making life in the city easier to afford, building his campaign around an issue that ranks among the biggest reasons Democrats lost in the 2024 election. He sat for interviews with people that disagreed with him. He engaged in cross-endorsements with rivals, encouraging supporters to rank them highly as well on their ranked-choice ballots. He campaigned aggressively, including walking the length of Manhattan on Friday. 'New Yorkers deserve a Mayor they can see, hear, even yell at. The city is in the streets,' Mamdani said on X. Dan Pfeiffer, a former top aide to President Barack Obama, said on X that Democrats 'have a lot to learn' from Mamdani. 'What's happening in NYC is a blaringly loud message to those in the Dem establishment who still cling to old politics, recite focus-grouped talking points, and are too afraid to say what needs to be said,' he said. Republicans were also thrilled with Mamdani's performance. The House GOP's campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee, issued a press release declaring Mamdani 'the new face' of the Democratic Party. 'Every vulnerable House Democrat will own him, and every Democrat running in a primary will fear him,' NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said. Mamdani faced attacks from pro-Cuomo forces in the primary over what his opponents described as antisemitic comments, flagging Mamdani's sharp criticism of Israel and his defense of the phrase 'globalize the intifada.' He also ran on progressive positions — including freezing rents, offering free public transit, launching city-run grocery stores and more — that Republicans are certain to use to portray Democrats as extreme, much like they have with previous progressive proposals like the 'Green New Deal.' Those attacks are unlikely to help the GOP in the mayoral race in New York City, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans almost by about a six-to-one margin. But New York is home to a number of competitive House seats where the GOP could seek to put Democratic nominees on the defensive over Mamdani's positions. It's too soon to sort through everything Mamdani's performance means for the Democratic Party. But it did offer a glimpse at where the party is on some key issues and who within it holds sway with voters. Mamdani, who would become the city's first Muslim mayor if he wins in November, was a vocal critic of Israel's war in Gaza and didn't back down despite being criticized as antisemitic, a charge he repeatedly denied. He defended his views in an interview with CBS' Stephen Colbert in which he also acknowledged the fears Jewish people have faced since Hamas' October 7, 2023, terrorist attack in Israel. 'There's no room for violence in this city, in this country, in this world. And what I have found also, for many New Yorkers, is an ability to navigate disagreement,' he told Colbert. He also demonstrated the influence of progressive New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who endorsed Mamdani. Other New York Democratic leaders, including Gov. Kathy Hochul and its two senators, Kirsten Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer, remained publicly neutral. The results similarly laid bare the ineffectiveness of Cuomo's effort — one backed by establishment Democratic forces that blanketed television airwaves but couldn't match the organic groundswell of a state assemblyman who started the race with little public profile. 'Billionaires and lobbyists poured millions against you and our public finance system,' Ocasio-Cortez said of Mamdani on X. 'And you won.' Cuomo had wanted a second act. The 67-year-old scion of one of New York's most prominent political families was forced out of the governor's office in 2021 amid a cloud of scandal — faced with allegations of sexual harassment that he denied and a report that his administration had covered up nursing home deaths during the coronavirus pandemic. The governor and the state's two senators stayed on the sidelines. But Cuomo's campaign was backed by many prominent New York Democrats and groups, including unions and elected officials who had criticized him four years ago but — seeing his lead in the polls — issued devil-we-know statements this year endorsing him. Though ranked-choice ballots need to be counted next week, Cuomo acknowledged the reality he faced on stage Tuesday, telling supporters he had called and congratulated Mamdani. 'Tonight was Assemblyman Mamdani's night, and he put together a great campaign. And he touched young people, and inspired them, and moved them, and got them to come out and vote. And he really ran a highly impactful campaign. I called him, I congratulated him. I applaud him sincerely for his effort, and let's give him a round of applause and thank him for his campaign,' Cuomo said. His former political rivals, meanwhile, gloated over Cuomo's apparent failure. 'Zohran ran a positive campaign talking about affordability. Cuomo ran a very negative, fear-based campaign. That just made a huge difference,' former Mayor Bill de Blasio said on CNN. In overwhelmingly Democratic New York City, a victorious Mamdani would ordinarily become the clear front-runner in November's general election. But he instead faces a competitive race with much different contours. First-term Mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat four years ago, is seeking reelection as an independent. Adams' break from the party came as he faced backlash after President Donald Trump's Justice Department dropped its corruption charges against Adams, and Adams has cooperated with federal authorities to enforce Trump's mass deportation efforts. 'What NYC deserves is a mayor who's proud to run on his record – not one who ran from his record, or one who has no record,' Adams posted on X Tuesday night. 'We deserve a mayor who will keep driving down crime, support our police, fight antisemitism, and stand up for working-class New Yorkers.' Republican Curtis Silwa was unopposed in the primary and will be the GOP nominee. And neither Cuomo nor Mamdani had ruled out the possibility of running in November on another party's ballot line if they lost the Democratic contest — Cuomo as the nominee of the newly created Fight and Deliver Party, or Mamdani as the nominee of the Working Families Party.
CNBC
10 minutes ago
- CNBC
CCTV Script 25/06/25
On Tuesday local time, as the market bet that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would hold and the risk of severe disruptions in oil supply was fading, we saw international oil prices fall for the second consecutive day, breaking below the $70 per barrel mark, and returning to levels seen before the current round of the Israel-Iran conflict. Overnight, US WTI crude futures fell by $4.14, a drop of 6.04%, closing at $64.37 per crude futures fell by $4.34, a drop of 6.07%, closing at $67.14 per barrel. Oil prices have fallen nearly 14% over the past two days, reflecting a market reassessment of the supply and demand fundamentals. From the current global landscape, whether it's Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, Russia, or the trend of increased production in the U.S., analysis indicates that the overall oil supply is relatively sufficient. Kevin Book "But where we are right now is with OPEC still adding back to the market at a time when it's looking pretty long, million and a half, 2 million barrels per day this year and next supply had to demand, if you sort of ballpark the projections. So that I think is cause for reflection." However, it should be noted that overnight the situation also briefly intensified. On the 24th local time, U.S. President Trump stated that both Israel and Iran had violated the ceasefire agreement and expressed dissatisfaction with both sides. Experts believe that violations or confusion in the early stages of a ceasefire are common, and the key issue now is whether the U.S. can exert pressure on Israel and Iran to promote the actual implementation of the ceasefire agreement. Michèle Flournoy, who served as former Under Secretary of Defense in the Obama administration, told CNBC, at present, there are still two unresolved issues regarding the situation in the Middle East. The first is, to what extent have Iran's nuclear facilities and nuclear program been damaged? This is also a major focus of market attention. On the 24th local time, CNN was the first to cite sources saying: early U.S. intelligence assessments showed that previous U.S. military strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities did not destroy the core components of Iran's nuclear program, and may only delay the program by a few months. The White House disagreed with the conclusions of this report. However, the report has already raised concerns in the market. Michèle Flournoy "We don't know how much of it was destroyed, how much of it was protected. So I think that is a huge question that will determine whether Israel, in particular, will feel that it can live with a cease fire and negotiations, or whether, whether they will have pressure to resume if the battle damage assessment is not as positive as they hope." Another major question is whether Iran will take negotiations more seriously than in the past. Experts point out that if Iran shows sincerity in negotiations and is willing to reach a substantive agreement to limit its nuclear program in the future, the situation in the Middle East may ease. But if the negotiations make no progress, conflict could escalate again. Therefore, Flournoy also warned: although many people are relieved by the ceasefire today, the crisis is far from over. Lastly, it's important to note that the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains a concern for shipowners. The CEO of Greek shipping company Navios told CNBC that vessels in the Strait continue to experience GPS signal interference, which has led to an overall traffic reduction of about 20%. Many ships have also opted to sail only during daylight hours to avoid nighttime risks. This shows that the current situation remains full of uncertainty.
Hamilton Spectator
16 minutes ago
- Hamilton Spectator
A whirlwind 48 hours: How Trump's Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement came together
WASHINGTON (AP) — In a 48-hour whirlwind, President Donald Trump veered from elated to indignant to triumphant as his fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement came together, teetered toward collapse and ultimately coalesced. Trump, as he worked to seal the deal, publicly harangued the Israelis and Iranians with a level of pique that's notable even for a commander in chief who isn't shy about letting the world know what he thinks. The effort was helped along as his aides and Qatari allies sensed an opening after what they saw as a half-hearted, face-saving measure by Tehran on Monday to retaliate against the U.S. for strikes against three key nuclear sites. And it didn't hurt that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , after 12 days of bombing, could tell the Israeli public that Iran's nuclear program had been diminished. 'This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will!' Trump declared in a social media post announcing the ceasefire. Netanyahu is less than enthusiastic about Trump's message The agreement began taking shape early Sunday morning, soon after the U.S. military carried out blistering strikes on Iranian nuclear sites that U.S. defense officials said have set back Tehran's nuclear program. Trump directed his team to get Netanyahu on the phone. The president told Netanyahu not to expect further U.S. offensive military action, according to a senior White House official who was not authorized to comment publicly about the sensitive diplomatic talks. The U.S. president made the case that it was time to stop the war and return to diplomatic negotiations with Iran. Trump also noted that the U.S. had removed any imminent threat posed by Iran, according to the official. For his part, Netanyahu listened to Trump's argument as Israel was nearing its own objectives with Iran, the official said. Netanyahu did not enthusiastically agree, but understood Trump's stance that the U.S. had no desire for additional military involvement. Around the same time, Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff spoke directly with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, telling him to come back to the bargaining table because Iran had seen what the U.S. military could do and that it was capable of doing much more, the official said. Witkoff stressed that the U.S. wanted peace — and Iran should, too. Trump ebullient about Israel-Iran deal prospects Less than 48 hours later, Trump took to his social media platform to announce that a 'Complete and Total CEASEFIRE' had been achieved. The ceasefire was based solely on the end of military hostilities, rather than on additional conditions about Iran's nuclear program or its economic interests. Trump was acting on the belief that Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons had been crippled. But as Trump spoke with confidence about the coming ceasefire, the Israelis and Iranians were notably quiet — neither side publicly commented on what Trump described as a deal that would be phased in over the coming hours. Araghchi spoke out first, acknowledging the wheels were in motion for a deal, but stopping short of saying Iran had signed off. 'As of now, there is NO 'agreement' on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations,' Araghchi posted on X. 'However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.' Commitment from Iran and Israel to Trump's ceasefire remained murky Not long before Trump's announcement, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took to social media to declare that Iran wouldn't surrender. It was unclear what role Khamenei, the ultimate authority in the Islamic Republic's theocracy, had in the deal. And Netanyahu was silent. He would wait more than eight hours after Trump's announcement to confirm that Israel had accepted the ceasefire and that it had achieved its war goals against Iran. Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said ceasefire efforts gained steam after Iran's retaliatory attack on a major U.S. base in the emirate on Monday evening. The Iranians fired 14 missiles at the base — with U.S. and Qatari defense systems knocking down 13. One of the missiles, according to Trump, was ''set free' because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction.' Trump also claimed the Iranians gave the U.S. and Qatar a heads up, allowing the troops to take shelter and the Qataris to clear their typically busy airspace. Qatar plays a key role in the ceasefire talks Iran's restrained direct response to the U.S. bombardment suggested to Trump administration officials that Iran — battered by Israel's 12-day assault — and its degraded proxy groups, including Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Yemen-based Houthis, didn't have the wherewithal to expand the fight. Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, had a 'long call' with Trump soon after the Iranian attack on the Al-Ubeid military installation, according to the Qatari prime minister. 'There was an opportunity during this communication to announce a full ceasefire on all fronts, and U.S. authorities asked Qatar to contact Iranian authorities to know how prepared they are for a ceasefire,' the prime minister said. Trump saw the moment as a clear opening The president soon got back in touch with Netanyahu to secure his commitment to end the hostilities, officials said. The prime minister agreed to the ceasefire, as long as there were no further attacks by Iran, the officials said. From there, things moved quickly. Vice President JD Vance was making an appearance on Fox News' 'Special Report' on Monday evening when Trump took to social media to announce the ceasefire deal had been reached and would go into effect over the coming day. The vice president appeared surprised when host Bret Baier told him that Trump had announced a deal had been reached. 'We were actually working on that just as I left the White House to come over here,' Vance said. 'So that's good news that the president was able to get that across the finish line.' But after Trump's announcement, the attacks kept coming. Iran launched a series of strikes on Israel after 4 a.m. local time Tuesday in Tehran, the time that Iran's foreign minister had said Iran would cease its attacks if Israel ended their airstrikes. And the Israeli prime minister's office confirmed that Israel launched a major assault hours ahead of the ceasefire's start, hitting central Tehran. 'We attacked forcefully in the heart of Tehran, hitting regime targets and killing hundreds of Basij and Iranian security forces,' the statement read. Iranian media confirmed nine casualties in the northern Gilan province. 'Four residential buildings were completely destroyed and several neighboring houses were damaged in the blasts.' Fars News Agency reported. A frustrated Trump lashes out Trump, who was scheduled to depart the White House early Tuesday to fly to the Netherlands for the NATO summit, was livid. His frustration was palpable as he spoke to reporters on the White House South Lawn. 'I'm not happy with them. I'm not happy with Iran, either, but I'm really unhappy with Israel going out this morning,' Trump said. 'We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f—- they're doing.' Minutes later, he took to his Truth Social platform to send a warning to Israel. 'ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION,' Trump posted. 'BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!' Trump climbed aboard Air Force One and was soon on the phone with Netanyahu. He did not mince words with the Israeli leader, according to one of the White House officials. Trump was 'exceptionally firm and direct' with Netanyahu 'about what needed to happen to sustain the ceasefire.' Netanyahu got the message. His office confirmed that the Israeli leader held off tougher action after the appeal from Trump and 'refrained from additional attacks.' After the call, Trump once again took to social media to declare the ceasefire was 'in effect. ' 'ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran,' Trump declared. 'All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly 'Plane Wave' to Iran, Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!' The president went on to spend a considerable chunk of his flight celebrating what his administration is calling a signal achievement. 'It was my great honor to Destroy All Nuclear facilities & capability, and then, STOP THE WAR!' On Tuesday evening, Trump's envoy Witkoff said the president is now looking to land 'a comprehensive peace agreement that goes beyond even the ceasefire.' 'We're already talking to each other, not just directly, but also through interlocutors,' Witkoff said in an appearance on Fox News' 'The Ingraham Angle.' 'I think that the conversations are promising.' ___ AP writers Darlene Superville in Washington, Josef Federman in Jerusalem and Fatma Khaled in Cairo contributed reporting. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. 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