CCTV Script 25/06/25

CNBC

8 hours ago

On Tuesday local time, as the market bet that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would hold and the risk of severe disruptions in oil supply was fading, we saw international oil prices fall for the second consecutive day, breaking below the $70 per barrel mark, and returning to levels seen before the current round of the Israel-Iran conflict.
Overnight, US WTI crude futures fell by $4.14, a drop of 6.04%, closing at $64.37 per barrel.Brent crude futures fell by $4.34, a drop of 6.07%, closing at $67.14 per barrel.
Oil prices have fallen nearly 14% over the past two days, reflecting a market reassessment of the supply and demand fundamentals. From the current global landscape, whether it's Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, Russia, or the trend of increased production in the U.S., analysis indicates that the overall oil supply is relatively sufficient.
Kevin Book
"But where we are right now is with OPEC still adding back to the market at a time when it's looking pretty long, million and a half, 2 million barrels per day this year and next supply had to demand, if you sort of ballpark the projections. So that I think is cause for reflection."
However, it should be noted that overnight the situation also briefly intensified. On the 24th local time, U.S. President Trump stated that both Israel and Iran had violated the ceasefire agreement and expressed dissatisfaction with both sides. Experts believe that violations or confusion in the early stages of a ceasefire are common, and the key issue now is whether the U.S. can exert pressure on Israel and Iran to promote the actual implementation of the ceasefire agreement.
Michèle Flournoy, who served as former Under Secretary of Defense in the Obama administration, told CNBC, at present, there are still two unresolved issues regarding the situation in the Middle East. The first is, to what extent have Iran's nuclear facilities and nuclear program been damaged? This is also a major focus of market attention.
On the 24th local time, CNN was the first to cite sources saying: early U.S. intelligence assessments showed that previous U.S. military strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities did not destroy the core components of Iran's nuclear program, and may only delay the program by a few months. The White House disagreed with the conclusions of this report. However, the report has already raised concerns in the market.
Michèle Flournoy
"We don't know how much of it was destroyed, how much of it was protected. So I think that is a huge question that will determine whether Israel, in particular, will feel that it can live with a cease fire and negotiations, or whether, whether they will have pressure to resume if the battle damage assessment is not as positive as they hope."
Another major question is whether Iran will take negotiations more seriously than in the past. Experts point out that if Iran shows sincerity in negotiations and is willing to reach a substantive agreement to limit its nuclear program in the future, the situation in the Middle East may ease. But if the negotiations make no progress, conflict could escalate again. Therefore, Flournoy also warned: although many people are relieved by the ceasefire today, the crisis is far from over.
Lastly, it's important to note that the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains a concern for shipowners. The CEO of Greek shipping company Navios told CNBC that vessels in the Strait continue to experience GPS signal interference, which has led to an overall traffic reduction of about 20%. Many ships have also opted to sail only during daylight hours to avoid nighttime risks. This shows that the current situation remains full of uncertainty.