How the EU youth mobility scheme could save Brexit
Rachel Reeves sounds surprisingly perky. The Chancellor of the Exchequer has, of course, been forced – we may think, through gritted teeth – to say nice things she cannot possibly have believed about the Trumpian tariff programme that threatens to take a guillotine to her beloved fiscal headroom without her being able to do a damn thing about it. But, interviewed by the Times, she professed herself encouraged by better-than-expected statistics on consumer spending. And she also showed signs of doing something rather interesting, i.e. rolling the pitch for a bit of a climbdown on youth mobility.
'No plans for a youth mobility scheme' had been the line before the election. Now she says: 'We do want to see better trading relationships between our countries and we do want to enable young people from Europe and the UK to be able to work and travel overseas.' She's still having, it seems obvious, Herbert-Lom-in-Pink-Panther-style panic attacks at the thought of the Reform vote, so she caveats the thought immediately by saying, 'we've got to get the balance right, because I do not want to see net migration increasing.
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The Herald Scotland
an hour ago
- The Herald Scotland
How Labour beat the odds — and rocked the SNP
To be fair to the press pack, it was not just the commentators, pundits and bookies who rubbished the party's prospects in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election. Some of the criticism came from inside the tent. Last week, one Labour insider told The Times the party should expect to get 'quite considerably humped'. Another told the Record: 'It was supposed to be a two-horse race between Labour and the SNP, but we selected a donkey and look like coming third.' Jackie Baillie, Anas Sarwar and Davy Russell (Image: Colin Mearns/The Herald) The thing about donkeys though, is they are known for being sure-footed, steady and persistent — especially when the going gets tough. Mr Russell, a well-known local figure who had been dismissed by some as the 'invisible man' after swerving media appearances and hustings, proved quietly effective. READ MORE The by-election was triggered by the death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie in March. She was just 57 and had been on leave following a stage two breast cancer diagnosis. In 2021, Ms McKelvie won the seat with 46% of the vote and a majority of 4,582. Labour's victory was narrow — they took 31% of the vote, winning by just 602 votes. The SNP's Katy Loudon took 29.4%, while Reform UK came a close third, with 26.2%. It was, in the end, unquestionably a three-horse race. 'At the start, we were not picking up a lot of support for Reform,' one Labour MSP said. 'And that did change. Reform supporters became more vocal and visible at the start of the by-election. I think, truthfully, what everyone was hearing is that the voters were happy with none of us. That is really how it started.' But that presented the party with an opportunity. 'We were able to really promote Davy as a local champion — somebody who will stand aside from what is going on nationally and just be at a grassroots level, take up the issues of the people here and really fight for them. 'We saw a glimpse of that when Davy was at a visit and journalists were there and he was asked about Winter Fuel Payments. He said this should be reinstated across the board. He did not look for lines to take — he just said what he believed. And I think people like that.' The party source also said not to underestimate the power or popularity of lawn bowls in South Lanarkshire. Mr Russell is a keen bowler, playing to a high standard. He was due to take part in a big international tournament on Saturday. Behind the win was what Labour insisted was a textbook ground operation. 'We worked unbelievably hard to get our voters out,' Labour's Michael Marra told The Herald on Sunday at Friday's victory rally. 'The numbers in the result were the numbers we were seeing in our campaign. So in that respect, I was not surprised. 'But given everything that has been said against us in recent months, it is a big change — a shift in momentum towards the Labour Party — and it means there is now the real prospect of a Scottish Labour government next year.' By polling day, Labour's campaign had identified 7,000 likely supporters — and then mobilised an army of activists to get them to the ballot box. Labour spin doctor Ollie Milne, Anas Sarwar, Party general secretary Kate Watson, and MP Joani Reid (Image: PA) 'We would have known about a lot of postal voters who had already told us they had voted Labour, so we would not have gone back to their doors in the final days or on polling day. Polling day was really focusing on people who were Labour promises,' one campaign insider said. That highly targeted get-out-the-vote strategy paid off. 'We had big teams of Labour students, people from the local party, neighbouring constituencies as well — lots of Lanarkshire members and councillors out — but also people from all over the country, including Scottish Parliament candidates, who understood that a Labour defeat in this by-election would have been bad for their campaigns. A Labour victory would really turbo-boost their own.' READ MORE There is still some anger in the party about the SNP's treatment of Mr Russell. 'It was really unfair,' one source said. 'Some of our opponents said Davy was in hiding, but he was on the doorstep.' There are some in the SNP who believed the party's attacks on Mr Russell went too far — made their campaign seem 'middle class' and detached — and ultimately backfired. 'We played the man, not the ball,' said one MSP, asked why they thought the party had fallen short. Others, however, are not letting his victory get in the way of their aspersions. Former SNP MP John Nicolson took to social media to suggest Mr Russell — a former senior council official in Glasgow, responsible for a team of 2,000 workers — would not be clever enough for Holyrood. The ex-broadcaster said Mr Russell would find committee work 'a struggle'. 'But brighter members will cover for him, at least initially,' he added. Party activists watch the counters at Thursday's by-election count (Image: PA) Polling expert Mark Diffley said the result should not have surprised those looking at the numbers in recent polls. 'The SNP has lost on average 15 percentage points in the polls between 2021 and now, and Labour has only lost two,' he said. 'Cards on the table, I thought the SNP would win narrowly, because actually their vote share in Hamilton went down by more than what the average opinion polling is telling us — by about three points. 'And had they gone down by what I thought — 13 or 14 points — they would have won the seat. 'I also think, you know, some politicians said this was a two-horse race. That was really never going to be the case. I think a lot of people did get sucked in. It was always going to be close.' In his final appeal to voters, Mr Swinney said voting for the SNP was a chance to 'defeat the gutter politics of Nigel Farage'. Speaking to journalists, he said Labour were 'out of it' and it was a straight fight between his party and Reform. 'I think the First Minister framed it like that because he wanted to appeal to Labour voters,' Mr Diffley added. 'It was the Labour voters that decided this election. They got 32% in 2021. Where were they going to go? And it turns out a lot of them stayed with Labour.' Reform's Thomas Kerr said the First Minister's comments undoubtedly helped his candidate, Ross Lambie. 'It highlighted us — got us more publicity than what we were getting. The more John Swinney and Anas Sarwar were talking about Reform, the better we were going to do, because people saw it as a sort of cynical political establishment stitch-up against us.' Reform candidate Ross Lambie, deputy leader Richard Tice and Cllr Thomas Kerr (Image: PA) 'I think everyone who was listening to John Swinney's spin on this will now take what he says with a massive pinch of salt,' Mr Marra said. 'The campaign the SNP ran, trying to embolden and push Reform forward at every opportunity, was not just disingenuous in terms of the result — it was also dangerous, let us be clear about that. 'It was a strategy to get them to 2026, to not talk about their record — about the state of our hospitals, about NHS waiting lists, about the state of our schools. I do not think that is now an approach that can hold.' However, Mr Kerr was willing to give the First Minister the benefit of the doubt. 'I am willing to take John Swinney at his word,' the Glasgow councillor added. 'I do think he genuinely thought that was the case. I do not think he was playing games. I genuinely think he was a bit shaken about the support Reform was getting.' At his press conference on Friday, Mr Swinney insisted there had been progress for his party, when the result was measured against their dire performance at last year's general election. 'Last summer, I think people would have doubted the SNP could have been in contention to win a by-election in Hamilton after the severe loss we suffered. But we were in contention. We were not strong enough to win, but we were in contention — and we will build on that.' 'There has been progress — but that, in of itself, is not enough,' one SNP MSP told The Herald on Sunday. 'The party needs to stop talking to itself and take a step back and reflect on ordinary people's perspective. It should have been doing that years ago. Here we are a good way through some really tough times — where people are hanging on by their fingernails — and we have been tinkering. 'It simply cannot be enough to rely on Labour to fail.' They said it was time for Mr Swinney to make changes in his top team. 'I think a proper ministerial reshuffle is required, and an exercise undertaken to seek new policies. For example, I would call in the former MPs who have experience but have had time to refresh their perspective. 'I can sense that many — for the first time — are now nervous, and rightfully so. 'On independence — again, it can never be enough to simply run a competent devolved government without a vision of what could be.' On Friday, Mr Swinney said he would 'consider all issues around the ministerial team'. Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero, Màiri McAllan, he added, would return from maternity leave soon. READ MORE Another senior SNP insider said they were not surprised by the defeat. 'I knew that we were going to lose it. What was the reason to vote SNP? We are not inspiring anybody on independence, because we are not talking about it — and it is nowhere to be seen in the party's message. 'Then we are pitching ourselves against Reform in a way that I think is totally unhelpful — and it backfired massively. It is almost like trying to replace the old SNP v Tory or SNP v Labour strategy. 'You cannot do that with a party that has never been in government — that does not carry that baggage — that does not have that resentment. 'People are voting Reform from all directions, including many former SNP voters. What is the reason for SNP? Well, it is independence.' (Image: PA) 'I think it is really disappointing the way the leadership has chosen just not to talk about what the SNP stands for,' they added. 'It is a very odd thing. I joined in 2007 when Nicola and Alex were the joint ticket and was very much attracted to that partnership because it spoke to different parts of Scotland. 'Right now we have got John and Kate, who are, I think, speaking to one part of Scotland. I am not sure they are talking to everybody.' While they thought Mr Swinney's leadership was safe, they predicted the internal elections for key posts — national secretary, party president, maybe even depute leader — could get 'spicy'. 'I think we will see some movements in those spaces.'
Sky News
2 hours ago
- Sky News
Spending review 2025: How much cash will Rachel Reeves give to each government department?
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to announce how much cash each government department will get over the next few years at the spending review on 11 June. Last October, Ms Reeves set out departmental budgets for 2025-26, and will now confirm how much each department will get for the remaining years of the parliament, which ends in 2029. Sky News' politics team takes a look at what may be announced in the spending review. What could be announced? Health and social care How much funding the Department of Health and Social Care will get is one of the most highly anticipated announcements, as due to its size it is set to get nearly 40% of the total day-to-day expenditure on all departments. How much other departments get depends largely on health and defence. Two-child benefit cap After much pressure from his own MPs, Sir Keir and his ministers started softening their previous hard stance on the Conservative-introduced policy that means families cannot claim child benefits for any more than their first two children. Just a week before the spending review, the PM refused to rule out scrapping it, so this could be announced in the spending review. There have been reports Ms Reeves could give the go-ahead to a new nuclear power station in Suffolk: Sizewell C. It would mark the end of a 15-year journey for the project, developed alongside French energy giant EDF, to secure investment for the plant. The chancellor may also set out details of plans to build small modular reactors (mini nuclear power stations) in England and Wales. What has the government already announced? In a show of what is to come, the government has already said that any increase in spending will be relatively modest - and has announced sizeable cuts to some areas, while other departments have got a boost. Foreign aid In February, the government announced it will reduce aid spending from 0.5% to 0.3% of gross national income in 2027 - the lowest level since 1999 - to fund higher defence spending. Defence spending Sir Keir Starmer has agreed to increase defence spending from its current 2.3% of GDP to 2.5% by 2027 and to 3% in the next parliament, from 2029. However, NATO chief Mark Rutte wants allies to sign up to 3.5% by 2035, so there are questions about whether the PM will agree to that after his recent hard stance on defence. 1:00 Transport On 4 June, the chancellor announced £15bn for tram, train and bus infrastructure outside London. It is part of a £113bn investment in capital projects over the rest of the parliament. Winter fuel payments Sir Keir Starmer shocked parliament when he U-turned just weeks before the spending review and said more pensioners will be given the winter fuel payment. Shortly after Labour won last July's election, they took the universal payment away from most pensioners and made it means-tested. Ms Reeves is expected to share some information at the spending review about who will receive the payment, but full details will not be revealed until the autumn budget. 0:33 Free school meals A week before the spending review, the government announced it will be expanding free school meals to all children in households on universal credit, instead of just those in households earning less than £7,400. 1:21 The government said this would mean more than 500,000 more children would be eligible from September 2026, and £1bn has been set aside to pay for it.
Daily Record
2 hours ago
- Daily Record
Swinney accused of 'deliberate and sinister' tactics in by-election
Labour leader Anas Sarwar warned the First Minister against promoting Reform for the Holyrood poll next year. Anas Sarwar has accused John Swinney of conducting a deliberately sinister campaign during the Hamilton by-election by promoting Reform to stoke public fear. Speaking exclusively to the Sunday Mail the Scottish Labour leader said the First Minister should be ashamed and warned him against repeating the move for next year's Holyrood vote. Sarwar made the comments after Labour candidate Davy Russell became the party's newest MSP, representing the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse constituency after the death of Cabinet minister Christina McKelvie in March. Although Sarwar has previously criticised the SNP's approach, he has now gone further by accusing Swinney of talking up Nigel Farage and his party in an attempt to elect an SNP candidate 'through the back door'. Sarwar 'I think John Swinney looks at Reform and Nigel Farage and thinks, 'How do I replace the former bogeyman I had in the Tories with Nigel Farage and Reform? How do I make it feel and seem like it is the SNP versus Farage?' 'He thinks it squeezes Labour out, pushes people who want rid of the SNP into the arms of Reform and they get the SNP through the back door. 'He tried to say, 'Let's demonstrate a progressive Scotland against Reform' and it's a shameful tactic. He tried it in this by-election and it backfired big style. 'Is he going to try the same shameful tactic next year? If he does, Scots will see right through it.' Russell, 63, was overjoyed on Friday when he took to the streets of Hamilton to thank voters for putting their trust in him. The grandfather and former Glasgow City Council employee was accused by rival parties and journalists of being invisible throughout the campaign after refusing to appear on televised debates and interviews. Commentators and bookies had predicted an SNP win, putting Labour second or even third but were left eating humble pie when Russell emerged victorious in the early hours of Friday. He took 32 per cent of the vote, receiving just 600 votes more than the SNP's Katy Loudon, who got 7957. Reform's Ross Lambie was third with 7088 votes and the Tories' Richard Nelson trailed far behind, securing just six per cent with 1621 votes. Privately some within the Labour party were unhappy about how Russell's media campaign was managed and said strategists should have leaned more on his ordinary 'man of the people' image rather than trying to make him a polished politician overnight. But no one could fault the party's local tactics, knocking on about 8000 doors over the past six weeks. Sarwar said: 'I have never experienced a campaign in my life where the national commentariat was so alien from what the reality was on the ground. 'It was stark and that can't be the case going into the election next year. 'There are lessons for political parties to learn, but there are definitely lessons for those [commentators] as well. 'The way Davy Russell carried himself in this campaign deserves huge credit, despite the personal attacks that were made on him. 'Despite people making very silly comments about how he talks or how he acts, he kept strong, he kept his feet on the ground and he kept working hard. 'That only further endeared him, actually, to his neighbours, friends and his own community, rather than pushed him further away. "Genuinely, the guy just cares about his community, wants to make a difference and he deserves immense credit.' Several Labour sources previously suggested Sarwar's star was waning as party leader and plans were already being drawn up to replace him. Now the Hamilton victory appears to have squashed those claims. Asked if he would be leading his party into the next Holyrood election, Sarwar said: "Just like the mythical John Swinney approach to what the by-election was about or the mythical analysis of what was happening on the ground in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, I think all those suggestions were mythical too. 'I've been doing this job for almost five years and in that time we have saved the Labour Party. 'We have won an overwhelming result in the General Election and we have defied the odds, the bookies, the pundits, the pollsters and the commentariat to win this by-election. 'I believe we're going to go against the odds and win the election again next year with me not just as leader but first minister of the country. 'Ultimately, that's up to the good people of Scotland and I'm going to work tirelessly between now and the Scottish Parliament election with humility, hard work and energy to earn their trust and earn their support.' Sarwar also paid tribute to the SNP's MSP Christina McKelvie, who held the Hamilton seat until she passed away earlier this year. He said: ' I fundamentally disagreed with her on politics, but she was a fundamentally decent woman and great fun to be around. 'She could be brutal in her politics both online and in the chamber but actually behind the scenes, she always carried herself with a smile on her face and a jovial spirit. 'We could do with more jovial spirits in our politics, right across the political spectrum.'
