Map Shows States to Be Impacted by Hurricane Erin in Path Simulation

Newsweek

2 days ago

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Hurricane Erin is expected to bring swells to the east coast of the U.S, as well the potential for heavy rainfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina this week, according to forecasters.
Why It Matters
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has already issued warnings regarding Erin's potential coastal impacts, with dangerous rip currents expected along U.S. East Coast beaches.
What To Know
In a post on social media platform X, meteorologist Mark Margavage said the hurricane had "trended significantly west" in forecast models in recent days.
Margavage's post included forecast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) which appeared to show the system's expected track shift gradually closer to the U.S. East Coast in successive forecasts.
Hurricane Erin has trended significantly west on the European model (and all other models) over the last few days.
This animation starts with the 0z 8/16 run and ends with the most recent 0z 8/19 run.#Erin #HurricaneErin #Tropicswx #Tropics #OBX #NCwx pic.twitter.com/31G7gFTOk7 — Mark Margavage (@MeteoMark) August 19, 2025
The graphic suggested the system could bring rainfall to states along the Eastern Seaboard, including but not limited to North Carolina, and Virginia.
An ECMWF spokesperson told Newsweek the agency could not comment on weather events while they were still unfolding.
Newsweek also contacted the NHC for comment via email on Tuesday.
According to AccuWeather, Erin could also cause large waves along New York and Massachusetts coastlines.
In a Tuesday morning update on Erin, the NHC said the hurricane was at Category 3 strength, with maximum sustained winds estimated at 120 mph.
"Fluctuations in strength are expected during the next couple of days. However, Erin is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week," the agency said.
An NHC graphic shows Erin's expected path, with watches and warnings highlighted.
An NHC graphic shows Erin's expected path, with watches and warnings highlighted.
National Hurricane Center
What People Are Saying
Meteorologist Mark Margavage said in a post on X, Tuesday: "Hurricane Erin has trended significantly west on the European model (and all other models) over the last few days."
The National Hurricane Center said in an update on Monday: "Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.
"Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Interests in Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are possible beginning on Thursday."
Meteorologist Matt Devitt said on X, Monday: "Future satellite image of Hurricane #Erin shows how massive the storm is going to get, eventually growing over 600 miles wide. Even though the center will stay offshore Wednesday into Thursday, the large storm will bring coastal North Carolina tropical storm-force gusts, 15-20 ft waves, surge flooding and beach erosion.
"State of Emergency has been declared for Dare County, NC, with a mandatory evacuation for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke."
What Happens Next
The NHC says Erin is expected to pass east of the Bahamas on Tuesday, and move over the western Atlantic between the U.S.' east coast and Bermuda Wednesday and Thursday.