Florida vs. Houston expert predictions for the men's NCAA Tournament national championship

New York Times

07-04-2025

Three weeks ago, 24 staffers submitted their predictions for The Athletic's consensus men's NCAA Tournament bracket. Eleven voters picked Duke to win the national championship, followed by six for Florida and five for Houston.
Now, Duke is out of the picture and the bracket is down to Florida and Houston, who will meet at 8:50 p.m. ET Monday in San Antonio. What do our experts think now? Here's how eight of The Athletic's writers view the Gators vs. the Cougars — with the consensus slightly leaning toward Houston, 5-3.
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I keep thinking that Florida is flirting with getting beat, but it's become clear during this NCAA Tournament that when we plan, Walter Clayton Jr. laughs. How can you pick against this guy right now? Of course it will be challenging to score against the defensive juggernaut that is Houston, but I have to think Clayton will find a way.
He'll need his teammates to step up, and I'm confident Alex Condon and Alijah Martin will answer the call. Another thing to keep in mind is that while Kelvin Sampson is absolutely the veteran here, UF coach Todd Golden has shown he is pretty good at halftime adjustments himself. This game isn't being billed as a tactical chess match, but it could become one.
This comes down to which irrepressible 2025 NCAA Tournament superpower you believe in more: Clayton's shot making or Houston's shot denying. I'll go with the collective. That's not to say Clayton is going this alone — the backcourt and frontcourt matchups in this game are tremendous. But if Houston can squeeze Duke the way it did in the final 10 minutes of that game, it can absolutely do the same to the Gators.
A program with a rich history, known for perhaps the best teams that never won it four decades ago, finally gets its first championship. And any doubt that Sampson should be in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame is blown up like the Coogs do to the average ball screen.
One Goliath slayed, one more to go. It is still difficult, a day after one of the most stunning comebacks in NCAA Tournament history, to process exactly how Houston orchestrated a 9-0 run in the final 33 seconds against Duke. But it did, and that's all that matters. Yes, Clayton is the best individual player left in this field … but did you see Houston on Saturday night? These are grown men with a never-die mindset flowing through their veins.
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Clayton can Houdini with the best of them, but even Duke's starting five of future NBAers wasn't enough to break through the brick wall that is the Coogs. Plus, as Sampson just proved, he's the best coach at this Final Four. It's long past time that he and the program he's rebuilt earn their view from the top of the mountain.
Somewhere in my house, there's a hastily and semi-thoughtfully constructed bracket that had Houston beating Florida for the national championship. Might as well stick with it. The belief these teams have cancels out Monday; both sides go into this thing feeling superhuman. No lead will be safe.
The Gators have been bothered by physicality at times in the NCAA Tournament and haven't been able to speed up teams wanting to drag the tempo down. This almost certainly will be Sampson's gambit. I see Houston as a sort of supercharged version of this year's UConn team, and maybe that's enough to make Clayton miss one or two shots he hasn't missed all tournament. Auburn didn't have the horses in the end. Houston does.
It feels like fate at this point. I picked Florida to win it all before the tournament started, but then I became convinced that no team could beat Duke after the way the Blue Devils played the past couple of weeks. Given that Houston pulled it off, and in that fashion, I can't in good faith pick against the Coogs in the championship.
Houston bullies its way to victory, holding the Gators to their second-lowest point total of the season. (Plus, now I can claim I was correct either way.)
Houston's comeback overshadowed the brilliance that Clayton showcased in Florida's 79-73 win against Auburn. Clayton's 34 points were the reason the Gators are in the championship and why I think they'll close the deal on Houston.
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Both teams were incredibly efficient at both ends of the floor in the nation's top two conferences. But if there's one advantage Florida has on Houston, it's tempo. And it all starts with Clayton.
I'm going to stick with my pre-tournament national champion pick, because no one likes a flip-flopper, while admitting it's really hard to pick against Houston when I've been the de facto Houston beat writer the past four weeks and it's hard to see this team just not finding a way to find a way. Often it's hard to follow such an emotional win with another, and Florida has the hottest player in this tournament in Clayton.
The key will be Florida's ability to get Clayton in space, preferably in transition where he's always a threat to pull a 3 or get to the bucket. Condon is going to be a key because it's usually not wise to use ball screens against the Coogs, and Condon being the initiator in zoom actions can give the benefit of the ball screen without actually setting one. He'll likely need to play with more confidence and his hesitancy to even look at the basket on Saturday is a concern, but the one thing the Gators have is an offense that it's hard to see going in a funk like Duke's did down the stretch. The one thing Duke was missing was a playmaking guard, and it's hard to beat Houston without one.
Florida definitely has one in Clayton, who's been on an all-time heater.
It feels like the emotional toll of Saturday's thunderclap finish should be too much for Houston to regroup from. It feels like Florida is bigger and more talented. It feels like Houston could be ripe for trouble, if its maniacal offensive rebounding leaves it exposed to Florida's transition scoring.
But it also, in my stomach, feels like Houston will firewalk to a national title, if that's what it takes. The Coogs will find a way. J'Wan Roberts will deliver on a key defensive stop. L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp will make the 3s that matter. The Coogs will find a way.
(Photos of Walter Clayton Jr. and Emanuel Sharp: Ezra Shaw, Andy Lyons / Getty Images)