After hitting ‘rock bottom,' Braves can still salvage their season – if they snap out of it

New York Times

12 hours ago

The Atlanta Braves are 27-34, 11 games back in the NL East, 1 1/2 games behind rebuilding Washington and only 3 1/2 ahead of lowly Miami. After their latest misstep, a blown six-run lead in the ninth inning Thursday against Arizona, their broadcaster and Hall of Fame pitcher Tom Glavine said, 'If you were looking for rock bottom, this might be it.'
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The tendency, in this age of overreaction, is to project the Braves as trade-deadline sellers and start listing potential landing spots for designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. But through the same date a year ago, the New York Mets were 27-35 and the Houston Astros 28-35, records nearly identical to the Braves' current mark. Both teams finished with nearly 90 wins and reached the postseason.
If the Braves fail to ignite, it will be fair to question whether they lost too much of their fabric with the free-agent departures of first baseman Freddie Freeman, shortstop Dansby Swanson and left-hander Max Fried over a four-year span. Whether president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos created too comfortable an environment by awarding so many players extensions. Whether Anthopoulos last offseason should have done more to address his offense and bullpen.
But more than 100 games remain. As poorly as the Braves are playing, the recoveries of the 2024 Mets and Astros are testaments to the dangers of passing judgment on a team too soon. So, for that matter, is the example of the 2021 World Series champion Braves, who at this stage of the season were 29-32.
The 162-game marathon, combined with an expanded playoff format, allows teams to recover from a bad month or even three. The Braves are unlikely to even consider selling unless they are buried at the All-Star break. Their replacement of third-base coach Matt Tuiasosopo with former manager Fredi Gonzalez on Monday was not a warning shot at manager Brian Snitker, who has led the team to seven straight postseason appearances and is in his 49th year with the organization. No, it was simply a response to two seasons of Tuiasosopo making poor decisions. A change team officials deemed necessary.
Snitker isn't blameless. The Braves aren't going to fire him after all he has achieved, but this sure looks like his last season. On Thursday alone, he could have stuck longer with right-hander Grant Holmes rather than start the bullpen carousel by lifting him after 3 1/3 innings. Still, the Braves took their six-run lead into the ninth. At some point, their disappointing performance is on the players, from center fielder Michael Harris II to second baseman Ozzie Albies to closer Raisel Iglesias.
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By this time a year ago, the Mets already had started their turnaround. The Astros got going about two weeks later. But not every club reaches its desired destination. Another projected contender last season, the Texas Rangers, showed how some teams never recover from faulty starts, missing the playoffs one year after winning the World Series.
The Braves, if they don't snap out of it, could be this year's Rangers. Their plus-6 run differential indicates their record should be above .500, yet they are seven games under. They have played a major-league-high 25 one-run games, and are only 9-16 in those contests. Even with the deadline offering an opportunity for improvement, an opportunity Anthopoulos seized to catapult his club to a championship in 2021, the strength of the NL this season adds to the degree of difficulty.
The Braves need more from their offense, which, before their 10-run eruption Thursday, was tied with the Marlins for 22nd in runs per game. They also need to fix their bullpen, which underwent another shakeup after Thursday's shocking ninth-inning collapse — Daysbel Hernández to the injured list, Scott Blewett designated for assignment and Craig Kimbrel and Dylan Dodd up from Triple A. Yet, for all the Braves' middle-inning maneuvering, the biggest problem remains closer Raisel Iglesias, whose .956 opponents' OPS essentially means he is turning every hitter into Pete Alonso.
Not even the highly anticipated returns of right-hander Spencer Strider and right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. altered the Braves' trajectory. Strider is trying to regain his form after missing all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery and nearly a month this season with a strained right hamstring. Acuña, coming off nearly a yearlong absence due to a torn ACL in his left knee, is performing better than the Braves could have expected, batting .333 with four home runs and a 1.056 OPS. Yet the team is 3-9 since his return.
Bad breaks are part of this. The loss of right-hander Reynaldo López to shoulder inflammation after one start. The offseason knee surgery that might sideline setup man Joe Jiménez all season. The 80-game suspension to left fielder Jurickson Profar for testing positive for PEDs.
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Well, all teams deal with injuries. The $42 million investment in Profar, based on his outlier campaign in 2024, was always going to be a gamble. And even the regressions of Harris (.590 OPS) and Albies (.658) reflect the volatility in individual performance that is part of the game. The Braves never expected catcher Drake Baldwin and outfielder Eli White to make such positive contributions, either.
Early in the offseason, Anthopoulos orchestrated a series of moves to create payroll flexibility, trading designated hitter Jorge Soler, allowing catcher Travis d'Arnaud to depart as a free agent and restructuring the contracts of López and reliever Aaron Bummer. The Braves later lost Fried, right-hander Charlie Morton and reliever A.J. Minter to free agency as well. Profar turned out to be Anthopoulos' only significant addition. And the team, under its Liberty Media ownership, wound up with a lower payroll.
Fried might win a Cy Young Award, but the Braves never were going to sign him to the $218 million contract he received from the New York Yankees, and their rotation isn't a problem. Anthopoulos non-tendered Griffin Canning, the pitcher he acquired from the Los Angeles Angels for Soler, and the Mets turned Canning into a potential All-Star. But none of the other players Anthopoulos lost is haunting him. His plan just isn't unfolding the way he envisioned.
The way the Braves are constructed, an offense that set records in 2023 should be capable of succeeding with light-hitting Nick Allen at shortstop, just as the Astros once thrived with Martín Maldonado at catcher. A better version of outfielder Jarred Kelenic, an Anthopoulos acquisition from last offseason who earned a demotion at Triple A, surely would help. But the Braves shouldn't need to rely on him, either.
Some seasons are like this. Some years it doesn't just work out. The Braves are talented enough to bounce back like they did in 2021, and like the Mets and Astros did last season. But at some point, they've got to show it. And they sure aren't showing it yet.
(Top photo of Brian Snitker: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)