Israel's dangerous delusions

Express Tribune

10 hours ago

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Israeli leader Netanyahu launched the war he has been planning for the last 20 years against Iran on 13 June. This aggression is a critical part of his ambition for a "Greater Israel", the Zionist project for regional hegemony. His collaborators are Western countries, in particular the US, since they are all under the overwhelming influence of their domestic Jewish lobbies. But such Israeli ambitions are a dangerous delusion, creating greater insecurity for its people, and ensuring a perpetual state of war in the region.
When Netanyahu became Prime Minister in 1996, he immediately launched the Zionist agenda of rejecting the Two-State Solution to the Palestinian issue and creating a "Greater Israel" by expanding Israeli territory over occupied Arab lands while promoting settler colonialism by illegally occupying Palestinian properties. Moreover, with the support of American Neo-Cons, Christian Zionists and the all-powerful Jewish American lobby, he instigated American regime change operations in countries opposing his agenda.
Former US General Wesley Clark has stated publically that shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, the US initiated plans for wars against Iraq, Syria, Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen and Iran. Fast forward to the present and the only country remaining on the Israeli-American hit list was Iran. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority has been reduced to a cypher, Hamas and Hezbollah have been battered, and wars for regime change have taken place in all the other targeted countries.
These were ideal conditions for the Israeli aggression against Iran. Netanyahu's stated objectives are to replace the Khamenei government and destroy Iran's alleged nuclear weapons capability. But his real agenda is promoting Israeli hegemony in the Middle East.
However, Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, air defences, critical infrastructure, military leadership and nuclear scientists have neither brought about regime change nor destroyed their nuclear assets. Instead, the robust Iranian military response has surprised Israel and broken the myth of Israeli invincibility. The war is now a stalemate in which Netanyahu's objectives have not been achieved, even though Israel is in a stronger position militarily with continuous American supplies of weapons and funds. Highlighting this situation, Israeli paper Haaretz has written that "Netanyahu might be bumbling into a war of attrition" from which he has no exit strategy of his own.
Netanyahu, therefore, became desperate for direct American involvement. Only the US has the B-2 Stealth bombers to drop bunker buster bombs like the GBU-57B to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities such as in Fordow and Natanz. Even then, experts acknowledge that the damage could be repaired in 3 to 6 months and that there is no knowledge of the whereabouts of the enriched fissile material already produced.
There is also the danger of nuclear radiation from the damaged sites. Besides, American intelligence and nuclear experts are not convinced that Iran has the intention or the ability to make nuclear bombs, an allegation that Netanyahu has been making for the last 20 years. For regime change, impossible through aerial attacks alone, American boots on the ground will be needed. This poses a dilemma for President Trump whose MAGA support base is opposed to American involvement while the powerful Israeli lobby is pushing for intervention. The lessons of the misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan also weigh heavily on the Americans.
After procrastinating for a week, Trump succumbed to Israeli pressure and ordered American strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on 21 June. The much-dreaded bunker buster 30,000 pound bombs were dropped on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear site by Stealth bombers. While Trump claimed that these facilities have been "obliterated", no reliable evidence has emerged so far to justify this claim. Trump has also threatened more attacks if Iran does not "surrender". In turn, Iran threatened further escalation and immediately attacked Israeli targets. The danger now is whether Trump would risk a ground invasion for regime change which would be extremely perilous.
Now that Israel and America has played their trump card, Iran can respond by rejecting nuclear negotiations with the US, exit from NPT, renounce Khamenei's 2003 commitment not to acquire nuclear weapons and conduct a nuclear test. It can also blockade the Persian Gulf and attack US bases in the region, apart from intensifying attacks on Israel. Iranian allies, Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis, whose capabilities have been degraded but not destroyed, could also intensify attacks on the Israelis and Americans. This would not only be counterproductive for Israel and America but also dangerous for the entire region.
Russia and China have fully supported Iran and condemned Israeli aggression. They have also joined other states in the UN to call for de-escalation, restraint and immediate ceasefire. More importantly, neither power would want to see their interests in Iran compromised by the Israeli-American aggression and would act accordingly.
As a friend and neighbor Pakistan has strongly supported Iran. In this volatile situation, Pakistan can play a constructive role by initiating joint efforts for an early ceasefire, de-escalation and resumption of Iran-US negotiations on the nuclear issue in conjunction with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, China and Russia. Even the US, despite the rhetoric in Israel's favour, recognises the merits of a peaceful outcome to this crisis.
At the same time, Pakistan must be wary of Israeli and Indian machinations. In the past both countries have collaborated to plan attacks on Pakistan's strategic assets. Netanyahu has also publically stated his opposition to Pakistan's nuclear capabilities on several occasions. But both countries also know that Pakistan is fully capable of deterring any threat to its national interests, as was amply demonstrated last May.
Indo-Israeli subversion and terrorism, as demonstrated in Iran, also poses a threat to Pakistan's security since the BLA has links with both countries. Our border regions with a destabilised Iran could become even more volatile and, therefore, urgently need to be sanitised.
To conclude, while Israel may presently have the tactical military advantage over Iran, it is in a strategic no-win situation. Its dangerous delusions of regional hegemony are doomed.