America's Obesity Epidemic Is Finally Easing. Will MAHA Take Credit?

Newsweek

7 days ago

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When the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiative launched in early 2025, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. framed it as nothing short of a national reset.
School meal reforms, bans on artificial dyes and restrictions on sugary drink purchases under SNAP were promoted as the first steps in addressing what Kennedy called a "childhood chronic disease crisis."
The administration projected measurable progress within two years: a nation reversing decades of rising obesity. But the first signs of change had already appeared. In 2023, national data showed adult obesity plateauing for the first time in more than a decade. An analysis of 16.7 million health records found the average U.S. body mass index (BMI) dipping slightly from 30.24 to 30.21, while the unweighted obesity rate fell from 46.0 percent to 45.6 percent. Researchers credited one factor: a surge in prescriptions for GLP‑1 weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy.
That timeline sets up a political and scientific tension, according to experts consulted by Newsweek. If obesity rates keep dropping into 2026 and beyond, MAHA's policy agenda could be positioned to claim credit for a trend largely driven by pharmaceutical breakthroughs that predate it.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty/Canva/ChatGPT
'Good Intentions'
"The intention of what RFK Jr. wants in this area is good," said Dr. Robert Klitzman, professor of psychiatry and director of the bioethics program at Columbia University. "In terms of improving Americans' diets and fighting chronic disease, his stated intentions are good. But I'm not convinced the administration will act effectively on those intentions."
Klitzman pointed to contradictions between MAHA's public messaging and broader Trump administration policy. While MAHA emphasizes banning dyes, swapping out cane sugar for high-fructose corn syrup and cutting sugary drinks from public programs, the administration has simultaneously cut federal nutrition research, reduced SNAP benefits and eliminated CDC environmental health programs.
"The president's proposed Fiscal Year 2026 budget would cut more than $18 billion in NIH research funding, 40 percent of the budget," the Center for Science in the Public Interest (CSPI) warned in a June 2025 report. "In addition, the Division of Environmental Health Science and Practice at the CDC was eliminated as part of a widespread reduction in force of 10,000 employees across HHS."
"Good intentions are not enough," Klitzman said. "The real impact on public health remains unclear."
Kennedy's high-profile food policy moves—such as urging Coca-Cola to switch back to cane sugar—illustrate the risk. "If people think, 'Oh, we got rid of the food dyes, now junk food is healthy,' they may actually consume more unhealthy food," Klitzman said.
"Replacing high-fructose corn syrup with cane sugar doesn't make a product healthier if the calorie count is the same." Research backs this up: FDA and JAMA studies show cane sugar and HFCS have nearly identical metabolic effects when consumed in similar amounts. A 2022 meta-analysis found no significant difference in weight or blood markers between the two.
A stock image shows a person holding Ozempic Insulin injection pens for diabetes/ weight loss.
A stock image shows a person holding Ozempic Insulin injection pens for diabetes/ weight loss.
getty images
The GLP‑1 Surge
Experts widely agree that the modest nationwide weight-loss trend so far stems from the pharmacological innovation of GLP‑1 drugs, not health policy. Prescriptions for medications like Ozempic rose nearly 600 percent between 2019 and 2024, with roughly 4 percent of U.S. adults using them as of last year, according to FAIR Health/IQVIA data.
"GLP‑1s are already showing real results," said Dr. Raj Dasgupta, chief medical advisor at Garage Gym Reviews. "Banning additives or restricting sugary drinks sends a message, sure, but on their own they're unlikely to move the needle in a big way."
For dietitians like Dasgupta, GLP‑1 medications delivered what the U.S. had lacked for decades: a treatment that not only helped patients lose weight but also improved key health markers. Clinical trials show users can lose 15 to 25 percent of their body weight while also improving blood sugar control, lowering blood pressure and boosting cardiovascular health.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, testifies before the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, Washington DC, May 14, 2025.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, testifies before the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, Washington DC, May 14, 2025.
Aaron Schwartz/Sipa via AP Images
Yet the surge of Ozempic, Mounjaro, and Wegovy has reframed weight loss as a medical intervention—but one largely limited to those who can afford it. Users often regain weight once they stop treatment, and with prices ranging from $1,000 to $1,400 a month and patchy insurance coverage, access remains out of reach for many.
In a country where 42 percent of adults live with obesity—a rate that has nearly doubled since the 1980s—the arrival of a drug that actually works is hard to ignore. But Dasgupta warned of a policy risk if future improvements are credited to MAHA's incremental measures.
"If obesity rates drop because of GLP‑1 use, but we claim it's because of soda taxes or additive bans, we double down on the wrong things. That kind of misalignment can set us back."
Aviva Musicus, science director at the Center for Science in the Public Interest, told Newsweek the pattern is already emerging. "RFK Jr. recently posted that 'MAHA is winning' in response to a fast-food chain switching to cane sugar in sodas," she said.
Studies consistently show sugar-sweetened beverages are linked to higher risks of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, regardless of the sweetener source, according to the CDC. "Sugary drinks are one of the most harmful products in our food supply. To actually improve health, the administration should focus on less sugar, not different sugar," Musicus added.
MAHA's emphasis on prevention has merit, experts say, but its impact will take years to measure. "Prevention takes time—15 to 20 years to see real results," Dr. John Magaña Morton, professor of bariatric surgery at Yale, told Newsweek.
"In the meantime, what do we do for patients suffering now? That's where treatment comes in. You need both prevention and treatment. It's like love and marriage—you can't have one without the other."
Morton noted that severe obesity (defined as a BMI over 40) continues to rise even as overall rates plateau. "The new drugs are paradigm-shifting, but about 20 percent of patients can't tolerate them or don't see results," he said. "Not everyone wants surgery either. We need metabolic centers to figure out who's most at risk and what other approaches work."
A stock image of an obese man seated in a crowd outdoors, August 26, 2016. Obesity rates vary significantly across the U.S., with the highest rates in the Midwest and South.
A stock image of an obese man seated in a crowd outdoors, August 26, 2016. Obesity rates vary significantly across the U.S., with the highest rates in the Midwest and South.
Richard T. Nowitz/Getty Images
Setting Up a Future Claim
To be sure, Kennedy hasn't explicitly claimed credit for the national weight-loss trend. But MAHA's framing—that its policies will "end the chronic disease epidemic" within years—positions the initiative to take a victory lap if obesity rates decline during its tenure. That's exactly what worries experts.
"It's very risky," Klitzman said. "If we credit the wrong things, we risk building future policy on shaky ground. We can't afford to misread what's actually helping people."
Musicus shared the same concern. "So far, we haven't seen MAHA use policy to drive real improvements in the food system. Instead, it's leaned on voluntary industry commitments that have failed before," she said. Many of MAHA's pledges—like altering soda recipes—aren't enforceable regulations and historically have had little measurable impact.
"If they start taking credit for GLP‑1-driven declines without making structural changes, we risk losing the chance to create lasting, meaningful improvements."
CSPI also questioned the administration's approach. "Even when the report outlines a good idea—like increasing consumption of whole, unprocessed foods—the administration's actions since January are at odds with these ideas," the group noted. "Back in March, the administration terminated more than $1 billion in funding that helped small farmers put fresh, local food into schools and food banks."
For Morton, the solution lies in balance. "Obesity is a health tax on everything," he said. "We are finally paying attention, which is good. But this is going to require a multi-pronged approach, not a single narrative about who gets the credit."
With the MAHA Commission set to release its next policy recommendations in August, the stakes are high: the story America tells itself about reversing obesity could shape public health strategy for decades.
A March 2025 JAMA Health Forum article raised similar concerns. "The MAHA commission's priorities depart from the known causes of chronic diseases," it said. "There is no mention of added sugars in food, reducing sodium intake, or the use of alcohol or tobacco. Instead, the charge includes issues that contribute in limited ways, rest on shaky evidence, or reflect the Secretary's long-held views."