No Reservations: Europe bails on US travel in Trump 2.0

Politico

21-05-2025

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Quick Fix
NEW YORK CITY — In case you weren't already aware, Europeans are hopping mad over President Donald Trump's trade and foreign policy agenda. If you don't believe it, take a look at how they're traveling.
Business travel bookings from Europe crashed by more than 25 percent in April compared to last year, according to data that the London-based platform HotelHub shared with POLITICO's Tommaso Lecca. It's the latest sign that Trump's protectionist policies have led to an abrupt reassessment of how the U.S. and its economy are perceived by European business leaders.
'There's been a lot of uncertainty around the traditional partnership with the U.S. since the new administration took office and even more so since the tariff announcements,' Paul Raymond, HotelHub's chief commercial officer, told Lecca.
Former Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, now vice chair at the investment bank Moelis & Co., said at a recent Edelman Smithfield event that the Europeans have been stunned by Trump's tenor and his policy shifts.
'There's no doubt in speaking with them – as I'm sure everyone here does on a regular basis – they are taken aback,' Cantor told a roomful of reporters and asset managers at the New York Stock Exchange.
'The strong rhetoric coming out of the administration … that's certainly not the kind or style of communication that they're used to from us,' he added. 'And it's offensive' to them.
The HotelHub data is indicative of a broader trend that top economists, particularly Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok, have flagged as a potential headwind for the U.S. economy amid the tremors affecting global trade and growth. Traffic at U.S. ports of entry has declined since Trump took office, according to Customs and Border Protection data. While travel from the Middle East has surged — and Trump has cheered the recent pledges from Gulf states to invest heavily in the U.S. — that hasn't been enough to offset the sharp declines among visitors from Western Europe, Asia and elsewhere. Overall traffic remains below what was reported last year and the year before through April.
The question is whether those declines will meaningfully dent the U.S. economy. The World Travel and Tourism Council, an industry lobbying group, recently estimated that the U.S. could stand to lose $12.5 billion from the dropoff in international tourism, particularly from key markets like the U.K. and Germany.
There are warning signs coming from U.S. travelers as well. Business bookings by American entities in Germany, France and the U.K. all dropped by double digits last month, per HotelHub. The U.S.-based cruise company Viking beat expectations with its first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, but its share price fell on signs that its future bookings growth could soften in the months ahead.
And while a survey produced by the Bank of America Institute found that more than 70 percent of Americans say they plan to vacation this summer, card data shows that they've spent considerably less on airlines, lodging and other tourism-related industries this year. Hilton and Marriott, along with major airlines, have adjusted their earnings forecasts to account for policy uncertainty.
'With lower confidence and rising economic uncertainty, it could be that consumers have decided to defer some relatively large, and often highly discretionary, travel spending,' BofA economists David Tinsley and Taylor Bowley wrote.
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Driving the Day
The Peterson Institute holds a virtual discussion on tariffs at 9 a.m. … U.S. Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler testifies at a Senate Small Business hearing at 10 a.m. … FCC Chair Brendan Carr testifies at a House Appropriations oversight hearing at 10 a.m.
Another big day for big beautiful — Trump tried to put an end to GOP infighting on Capitol Hill and push forward his 'big, beautiful bill' on Tuesday. It didn't entirely land, as both hard-liners and SALT Republicans dug their heels in afterward, Meredith Lee Hill, Jennifer Scholtes and Rachael Bade report.
— Still, by late Tuesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson and a group of blue-state Republicans had reached a tentative deal to boost the cap on state and local tax deductions to $40,000, Meredith and Benjamin Guggenheim report.
— And per Rachael Bade and Meredith, Republican leaders are increasingly confident they will be able to notch a final deal with key GOP megabill holdouts and move toward a final vote in the coming days.
Elon hangs up his wallet, for now — Elon Musk isn't just taking a step back from DOGE, he's also hitting pause on his side gig as a political megadonor. Musk, who dropped more than $290 million on the 2024 election, said he plans to cut down on political spending 'in the future,' saying he has 'done enough,' Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing reports.
And the top $TRUMP memecoin holder is … — Cryptocurrency mogul Justin Sun. Late Monday, the billionaire wrote on X that he was indeed the top holder of the president's memecoin, landing him an invite to a private dinner with Trump at his golf club outside of Washington on Thursday, Declan reports. Sun is a major backer of the growing Trump family crypto business, having previously invested in World Liberty Financial.
It's always the economy — Trump's approval rating is still above where it was for most of his first term, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll. Even so, 53 percent of Americans disapprove of his economic performance.
At the regulators
On the beat — From Declan: 'The SEC sued cryptocurrency firm Unicoin on Tuesday over what the Wall Street regulator described as 'a massive securities offering fraud' that allowed the company to raise more than $100 million.'
It's a seller's market — Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner doubled down on the Trump administration's plan to sell federal land for housing, saying that opening up those parcels to developers will 'unleash Americans' potential,' Katy O'Donnell reports.
The SEC's new geek squad — From Declan: 'A DOGE-led review of the SEC's information technology contracts has netted the agency about $90 million in savings, SEC Chair Paul Atkins told lawmakers Tuesday.'
Don't pull that block! — SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw 'pretty much went postal' in a speech Monday, FT Alphaville editor Robin Wigglesworth writes. At an annual SEC gathering in Washington, aptly titled SEC Speaks, Crenshaw warned that the SEC is 'pulling apart our own regulatory foundation — block by block, case by case, and rule by rule.' Here's the full speech.
Wall Street
A new trading destination — First, there were stock exchanges. Then came the dark pools. Now, smaller Wall Street brokers have a new means to execute stock trades: private rooms. Bloomberg's Katherine Doherty reports that brokers have begun funneling their orders to the off-exchange venues as firms look 'to pick and choose who they deal with in order to control their trading experience.' Private room trading is still a minor part of the market, but some trading giants, like Citadel Securities, are sounding the alarm.
It's feeling a little 2021 in here, isn't it? — The New York Times' Maureen Farrell reports that SPAC deals are back, and this time, 'the most sought-after ones involve people in President Trump's orbit or investments close to his heart.'
On the Hill
Here we go… — Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) filed an amendment to the stablecoin bill that would crack down on credit card swipe fees,Jasper Goodman reports. While it's unclear how the amendment process on the bill will look, Marshall's amendment raises the possibility that powerful lobbying groups representing retailers and financial institutions will soon be sparring over landmark crypto legislation.
First in MM: New GOP SEC bill — Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) are rolling out new legislation that would repeal authority granted to the SEC by the post-2008 Dodd-Frank Act that hasn't been utilized by the agency through rulemaking or guidance. Fifteen 'years is more than enough time for the SEC to evaluate the necessity of unused authorities,' Ricketts said in a statement. 'But just because they haven't been used does not mean they should remain on the books.' Barr said Dodd-Frank 'will go down as one of the biggest power grabs by federal regulators in history.'
M&A attorneys: Engage — House Republicans voted to rescind Biden-era rules that had subjected bank mergers to heavy regulatory scrutiny, Michael Stratford reports.
Big deal for private funds — Meanwhile, in House Financial Services, lawmakers advanced three bills that expanded the 'accredited investor' definition, which would potentially unlock new pools of investors for private investment vehicles, Katherine Hapgood reports.