Germany vs. Spain Women's Euro SF Betting Odds, Best Bets: Spain To Roll?

Newsweek

3 days ago

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Coming into the Women's Euro 2025, there was reason to believe 2023 World Cup champion Spain would be even better than it was two years ago.
With controversial former manager Jorge Vilda out of the picture -- replaced by longtime assistant Montse Tome -- and superstar Alexia Putellas healthy, La Roja have lived up to their high expectations entering this tournament. Putellas and Co. outscored Portugal, Belgium, Italy and Switzerland 16-3.
Germany have not exactly been dominant, but they've been impressive in their own right at Euro 2025. In their quarterfinal matchup vs. France, Germany played with 10 women for nearly 80 minutes after Kathrin Hendrich's red card in the 13th minute, but still managed to prevail 6-5 in PKs.
How to Watch Germany vs. Spain Women's Euro 2025 Semifinal
Kickoff : 3 p.m. ET
: 3 p.m. ET TV: FOX
Germany vs. Spain Women's Euro Odds
Below are the odds from three top sportsbooks in the two most popular markets for soccer matches: three-way moneyline and match winner.
Germany vs. Spain Three-Way Moneyline Odds
The DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365 three-way moneyline odds below apply to this afternoon's result after 90 minutes, plus stoppage time.
DK FD bet365 Germany +475 +490 +500 Spain -195 -210 -200 Draw +350 +340 +350
Germany vs. Spain Odds To Advance
Sportsbooks also offer each team's odds to reach Sunday's final.
In this market, it doesn't matter whether the winner comes out on top in 90 minutes, extras or PKs; all that matters is who moves on.
DK FD bet365 Germany +280 +310 +300 Spain -450 -420 -450
Germany vs. Spain Betting Analysis
This Spain side is a machine.
Their depth behind veteran stars Putellas (3 goals, 4 assists at Euro '25) and Esther Gonzalez (4 goals) makes it particularly hard to see them losing, either in today's semifinal or in Sunday's final vs. England.
Tome's quality options off the bench -- to name one -- include Salma Paralluelo, who finished third in the Women's Ballon d'Or vote in both in 2023 and 2024.
It's also worth noting that even though La Roja are yet to clinch their spot in the final, they are -170 at DraftKings to win this tournament. Euro 2021 champ and 2023 Women's World Cup runner-up England -- which has already clinched a spot in the final -- is listed at +175, followed by Germany at +800.
At FanDuel, the current Women's Euros futures odds are similar (Spain -185, England +195, Germany +700).
That leaves little to break down in Spain vs. Germany this afternoon, though we shouldn't rule out Germany keeping this game interesting given the way it took down France in the quarters.
Germany will likely need to beat Spain on the counter, as La Roja have enjoyed at least a 70 percent share of possession in all four games in this competition.
Spain's midfield features not only 2021 and 2022 Women's Ballon d'Or winner Putellas, but also 2023 and 2024 Women's Ballon d'Or winner Aitana Bonmati. Those two combine with Patricia Guijarro to form a midfield trio that has controlled every Euro 2025 match for Spain.
The odds, and the stats in both Spain's Germany's matches to date, indicate that the biggest question in today's match is probably how long Germany will be able to keep this one close.
Against Switzerland in the quarterfinals, Spain controlled play from the start, but did not score until the 66th minute, so a close game today for at least the first 45 minutes shouldn't shock anyone.
Germany vs. Spain Pick, Props, Best Bets
Even the best teams rarely win big in high-profile knockout matches like this one. With that in mind, don't be surprised if Germany keep today's semifinal competitive early.
But even if Germany vs. Spain is tied 0-0 deep into the second half, I would still expect Spain to eventually break through for a late goal or two and advance without any late drama.
Typically, the best way to find value in a match where one side is as heavily favored as Spain is to head to the half time/full time market. Another tempting play on the favorites is Spain Win To Zero (+160 at DK).
Best bets:
Half time/full time -- Spain/Spain (+100 at DK) -- 1 unit
Spain Win To Zero (+160 at DK) -- 0.5 units
Best Germany vs. Spain player prop bet:
On the player prop front, Gonzalez has had at least four shots in every Euro 2025 match except Spain vs. Italy (in that one, she had two in just 15 minutes off the bench). That makes Esther Gonzalez 4+ shots (+110 at DK) hard to resist.
Esther Gonzalez 4+ shots (+110 at DK) -- 0.75 units
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