If Germany sends Taurus missiles to Ukraine, Russia has a major Crimean Bridge problem

Yahoo

3 days ago

A statement from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on May 26 about long-range strikes inside Russia resurrected a long-held hope in Ukraine — that Berlin is finally about to send Kyiv its Taurus missiles.
"There are no longer any restrictions on the range of weapons delivered to Ukraine — neither by the U.K., France, nor us. There are no restrictions by the U.S. either," Merz said.
Dampening expectations somewhat, Merz the next day clarified he was referring to permissions given by Ukraine's allies last year, but his mention of "us" still raised speculation that they could be on their way — currently, Berlin provides Ukraine with no long-range missiles that the granted permissions related to.
"It's good news that they have lifted these restrictions on the use of missiles," Oleksandr Merezhko, a Ukrainian lawmaker and chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent.
"But where are these missiles? Where is Taurus, for example?" he added.
Germany's stance on not sending Ukraine Taurus missiles was a policy largely driven by Olaf Scholz, Merz's predecessor. Ukraine has been using U.S.-made ATACMS for over a year, and UK-French Storm Shadows for more than two.
"Delivering Taurus at this point is less for the Ukrainians and more for the Germans because Taurus has become this ultimate symbol of German fear and escalation angst," Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo specializing in missile technology, told the Kyiv Independent.
"And that's why delivering Taurus is so important — you right that wrong," he added.
While Scholz repeatedly blocked the delivery of Taurus missiles over his concerns about escalation, his successor has been much more open about the possibility.
In April, Merz even specifically suggested Taurus could be used to target strategic Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea, including the Crimean Bridge.
In an interview with ARD, Merz emphasized the need to support Ukraine in moving from a reactive to a proactive stance on the battlefield, saying Kyiv must be equipped to "shape events" and "get ahead of the situation."
"If things continue as they are, if, for example, the most important land connection between Russia and Crimea is destroyed, or if something happens on Crimea itself, where most of the Russian military logistics are located, then that would be an opportunity to bring this country strategically back into the picture, finally," Merz said.
In range, speed and payload, Taurus much resembles the Storm Shadow, which is made by Taurus' manufacturer MBDA's French affiliate.
"SCALP/Storm Shadow and TAURUS belong to the same class of cruise missiles," a representative for MBDA Deutschland, wrote in a statement to the Kyiv Independent.
"They differ in their performance data, but are both fundamentally suitable for deep strike missions against strategic targets.""Taurus is the best weapon system in Western arsenals to take down bridges."
The primary distinction for Taurus is in the design of the actual warhead — Taurus can be programmed to explode after hitting a specific target, such as a bunker.
The missile can penetrate and actually count layers before the final explosion, maximizing damage.
Taurus would represent a major upgrade to Ukraine's deep-strike firepower, primarily because it can blast through denser Russian fortifications.
Thanks to a more efficient engine, Hoffmann explains, Taurus can also reach deeper into Russia than other system currently in Ukraine's arsenal, and packs more of an explosive punch than Ukraine's new crop of deep-strike "missile-drones."
Despite a publicly advertised range of 560 or more kilometers, Hoffmann believes they can reach 700 to 800 kilometers. They are, however, air-launched, so they originate from planes that would not be over the front line, where they would be vulnerable to Russian anti-aircraft fire.
Taurus "can be easily adapted" to F-16 fighter jets, which are now deployed in Ukraine, and to Gripen — a Swedish aircraft that could be on their way soon.
"Taurus is the best weapon system in Western arsenals to take down bridges," said Hoffmann.
"So in theory, if Ukraine wants to take down the Crimean Bridge, Taurus would be the ideal weapon system to do that."
Constructed after Russia's illegal occupation of Crimea in 2014, the Crimean Bridge is a critical supply and transport route for Russian forces to occupied Ukrainian territories.
It also holds huge symbolic value — the $4 billion project was a political statement designed to cement what Russian President Vladimir Putin saw as one of his crowning moments — the annexation of Crimea.
The bridge has been a repeated target of Ukrainian strikes, suffering significant damage in October 2022 and July 2023, though neither managed to take the bridge out of commission.
Taurus could potentially change that.
There has so far been no confirmation of actual delivery of Taurus to Ukraine.
"We are not issuing comments on any speculation on political debates and decisions," a representative for MBDA Deutschland, Taurus' manufacturer, wrote in a statement to the Kyiv Independent. "Please rest assured that MBDA is prepared to support the German government and Ukraine with the necessary integration, training and logistics if a political decision is made."
Hoffmann notes that Taurus today is less important for Ukraine than it would have been two years ago, when there were fewer home-grown options for deep strikes.
"If you deliver it now, Ukrainians could use it against the targets that really matter, whereas in 2023, they had to allocate Storm Shadow for everything. So there are some advantages, I'm not saying it's nothing," Hoffmann explained.
"But a long range drone with a 50 kg warhead or even less is perfectly fine under some circumstances. So Ukraine has a lot of options."
Experts believe that the Taurus is unlikely to be a game-changer in the war and that while targeting the Crimean Bridge would be a big symbolic victory for Kyiv, Ukraine needs it primarily to replenish its long-range weapons stockpile.
"Storm Shadow, SCALP EG, they are running out sooner or later. Taurus is another very capable cruise missile that could be used by Ukrainians to just extend the availability of its long-range range strike capability," Hoffman said.
"This is a key advantage. It's mostly about the quantity and the number of missile systems available in Ukraine's arsenal."
Read also: Sanctions on Russia are working, Ukraine just needs moreWe've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.