Why are US natural gas prices rising, and what does it mean for American families?

Economic Times

12-05-2025

Market Technicals and Supply Constraints
Live Events
Weather-Driven Demand
'Trumpflation' and Tariffs on Energy Imports
Impact on American Families
What Comes Next?
FAQs
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With US natural gas prices up more than 14 percent over the past month, many American families are poised to see their utility bills rise by up to $30 a month as higher fuel and power‐sector costs get passed through to consumers.Natural gas prices have risen from around $3.47 to nearly $3.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the last few days, driven by tighter supplies, technical buying, a brief outage at a key LNG export plant, and forecasts for hotter-than-normal summer weather.Geopolitical and economic policies of the Trump administration, particularly new tariffs on energy imports under his first 100 days, are adding an extra layer of cost pressure and translating into higher heating and electricity bills for families and small businesses across the country.When natural gas futures broke above the 50-day exponential moving average (about $3.47/MMBtu), many traders jumped back in, betting on further gains above resistance at $3.72/MMBtu.Meanwhile, major US producers like Diamondback and Coterra announced cuts to rig counts and capital spending in the Permian Basin, setting the stage for slower output growth later this year.The National Weather Service and private forecasters predict above-normal cooling degree days across the Lower 48 through mid-May, signaling an earlier start to air-conditioning season. That additional power-sector demand tightens balances and lifts natural gas prices.In his first 100 days, President Trump has imposed a 10 percent tariff on Canadian energy exports, including natural gas, intended to 'minimize disruptive effects,' but adding cost to U.S. imports. Goldman Sachs warns these tariffs could push core inflation up to 3.8 percent by year-end, reversing recent gains toward the Fed's 2 percent goal.Critics note grocery and energy prices are already outpacing wage growth for many households.For a middle-class family in Cleveland that relies on natural gas for both heating and cooking, a $0.30 rise per MMBtu can translate into an extra $20–$30 on next month's bill. Small manufacturers in the Midwest, who use gas-fired furnaces, report tightening margins and are already planning modest price increases for their customers.The EIA(Energy Information Administration) now projects the Henry Hub spot price to average $4.19/MMBtu in 2025, up nearly 90 percent over last year, before climbing further to $4.47/MMBtu in 2026 as LNG exports and seasonal power demand grow. If the summer heat wave deepens, or if geopolitical tensions flare further, we could see another leg up in prices.For consumers, that means keeping an eye on usage, exploring efficiency upgrades, and budgeting for potentially higher energy bills in the months ahead.Even as technical traders fuel short-term rallies, real-world factors outages at major export terminals, summer cooling demand, and new tariffs, are the main drivers tightening the US natural gas market.: Be mindful of your natural gas consumption, especially during peak demand periods.: Consider investing in energy-efficient appliances and insulation to reduce heating and cooling costs.: Plan your monthly expenses to accommodate potential increases in utility bills.Long-term solutions include diversifying energy sources, investing in renewable energy, and improving energy efficiency across sectors. Policy decisions at the federal and state levels will play a crucial role in shaping the future of energy prices.