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Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
'A gamechanger': Economists react to weak July jobs report as rate cut bets surge
Wall Street strategists are sharply recalibrating their economic outlooks after Friday's July jobs report showed weaker-than-expected hiring and staggering downward revisions to prior months' data, suggesting the labor market may be losing steam at a quicker pace than previously thought. The US economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, far below the 104,000 expected by economists. But the bigger surprise came from revisions to May and June's figures, which collectively erased 258,000 jobs. This marked the largest two-month downward revision since May 2020. Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, called the July jobs report "a dud" in a client note titled "July and the No Good, Very Bad Jobs Report." "The 'solid' state of the labor market described by the FOMC earlier this week looks more questionable after the July employment report," she said, citing broad-based hiring weakness in cyclically sensitive sectors like manufacturing, retail, and professional services. Despite persistent strength in healthcare hiring, she added, "the pace [of job growth] has lurched lower to just 35K" over the past three months when factoring in revisions. Steve Sosnik, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, bluntly told Yahoo Finance that the July numbers were simply "not good. There's no way to sugarcoat that. The two-month revision is just staggering. It basically wipes out two months of what we thought were healthy job gains." Citi economist Veronica Clark agreed, telling Yahoo Finance, "It's not so much this July number, but the massive downward revisions to the June number that we had last month. ...This definitely does look like a labor market that is weakening." Meanwhile, Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, called the report a "gamechanger" in a post on X, echoing others in saying "the labor market now looks a lot weaker than expected." The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in July, in line with expectations and still near historic lows. But as Clark pointed out, "that happened despite the labor force participation rate falling more," a shift some economists have linked to President Trump's immigration crackdown. Ahead of the report, there were growing concerns that increased deportations were reducing labor supply and keeping the jobless rate artificially low. September rate cut odds surge The revised data has added urgency to calls for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with market pricing shifting notably in the aftermath. "We still anticipate that the Fed starts to cut in September with consecutive cuts thereafter leading to about 100 basis points of cuts in total," said Leslie Falcone, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management. Falcone noted that while the Fed had already turned more cautious, the scale of the revisions surprised even the most dovish forecasters. "Some of these revisions are much more than what people expected. ...I do think that this is a bit on the weaker side. And it does put cuts back on the table." Traders seem to agree. Following the report, the probability of a September rate cut surged to about 80%, up from just 38% the day prior, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Earlier this week, Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller broke from the majority of FOMC officials, dissenting against the decision to hold interest rates steady after warning the labor market was weaker than initial data had indicated. That warning appeared prescient on Friday as markets tumbled following the report. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) fell over 2% by mid-morning as the Dow shed nearly 600 points and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped around 1.6%. Meanwhile, bond prices surged on increased rate cut bets, sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) down 11 basis points to around 4.2%. Adding to labor market concerns, escalating trade tensions were also top of mind for investors as Trump hiked tariff rates on several US trading partners, including a surprise 39% tariff on Switzerland. "The market had sort of put tariffs in the rearview mirror and assumed that the labor market was okay," Sosnik said. "Well, both of those assumptions have been overturned quite dramatically this morning." The strategist warned markets appear to be entering a "reckoning period," explaining, "We're not seeing a lot of reflexive dip buying. ...That, to me, tells me that the psychology, at least as of this particular moment, is a bit more tenuous than it was." Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
How Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America Shape the Way You Save — Without You Noticing
On June 16, 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt signed the legislation that created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the entity charged with insuring bank deposits. The moment rebuilt something that the Great Depression had annihilated — public trust in the banking system. The guiding hand of the FDIC meant that now, your money was safe whether the bank was robbed, burned down or failed outright, like so many had over the years as customers watched their life savings evaporate in an instant. Find Out: Read Next: The caricature of old-timers hiding their money under the mattress because they still didn't trust banks was born. Ninety years later, big banks like Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America are giant, global institutions that have integrated their services into every aspect of our financial lives — and they steer your saving habits quietly in the background, whether you realize it or not. Here's how. 24-Hour Access Through Apps and Mobile Banking According to Home Pride Bank, roughly nine out of 10 people — 89% — use mobile banking apps as part of their daily lives. Americans are glued to their screens, and big banks have placed themselves front and center on their phones, laptops and tablets. Real-time monitoring, updates, alerts and notifications make it impossible to tune out, which keeps people conscious of their cash, spending and saving, even if it happens subconsciously. See More: Budget Tools and Spending Trackers Keep Tabs for You Keeping track of the money coming in and going out used to be a tedious chore that was beyond the capacity of anyone who didn't have the hours, diligence and head for numbers to balance checkbooks, comb through monthly statements and scour savings passbooks for accuracy. Today, tools like automated expense trackers and category-based spending and budgeting features — which all the big banks include for free, complete with easy-to-read graphs and charts — do the heavy lifting for you and reveal at a glance precisely where you can cut spending and boost savings. Features Make Consistent Saving Easy Bank of America profiles its list of free tools that make it simple to save consistently, and consistency is the key to long-term wealth-building. It's not just BOA. Every major bank boasts a similar menu of offerings, including: Automatic transfers put your savings on a schedule. Split direct deposit makes sure you pay yourself first. Rounding-up programs — BOA's is called Keep the Change — let you save passively with every purchase. Buckets let you compartmentalize your savings to work toward different goals in the same account. Savings calculators help you crunch the numbers and develop realistic timelines for your savings goals. It All Comes Back to Security — and the Banks Have Kept Up With the Times FDR didn't have to worry about server hacking, ransomware and digital identity theft, so insured deposits were enough to regain the public's trust in the system. Modern banking customers, however, face all those threats and more every time they log on. In response, today's big banks have done what the Banking Act of 1933 did during the Depression — incentivized deposits through reassurance that your money in the bank is secure, introducing safeguards like: Multifactor authentication Fraud monitoring Biometric authentication Automatic time-based logout SSL encryption Credential confidentiality More From GOBankingRates 3 Luxury SUVs That Will Have Massive Price Drops in Summer 2025 5 Types of Cars Retirees Should Stay Away From Buying Are You Rich or Middle Class? 8 Ways To Tell That Go Beyond Your Paycheck This article originally appeared on How Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America Shape the Way You Save — Without You Noticing Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
'A gamechanger': Economists react to weak July jobs report as rate cut bets surge
Wall Street strategists are sharply recalibrating their economic outlooks after Friday's July jobs report showed weaker-than-expected hiring and staggering downward revisions to prior months' data, suggesting the labor market may be losing steam at a quicker pace than previously thought. The US economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, far below the 104,000 expected by economists. But the bigger surprise came from revisions to May and June's figures, which collectively erased 258,000 jobs. This marked the largest two-month downward revision since May 2020. Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, called the July jobs report "a dud" in a client note titled "July and the No Good, Very Bad Jobs Report." "The 'solid' state of the labor market described by the FOMC earlier this week looks more questionable after the July employment report," she said, citing broad-based hiring weakness in cyclically sensitive sectors like manufacturing, retail, and professional services. Despite persistent strength in healthcare hiring, she added, "the pace [of job growth] has lurched lower to just 35K" over the past three months when factoring in revisions. Steve Sosnik, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, bluntly told Yahoo Finance that the July numbers were simply "not good. There's no way to sugarcoat that. The two-month revision is just staggering. It basically wipes out two months of what we thought were healthy job gains." Citi economist Veronica Clark agreed, telling Yahoo Finance, "It's not so much this July number, but the massive downward revisions to the June number that we had last month. ...This definitely does look like a labor market that is weakening." Meanwhile, Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, called the report a "gamechanger" in a post on X, echoing others in saying "the labor market now looks a lot weaker than expected." The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in July, in line with expectations and still near historic lows. But as Clark pointed out, "that happened despite the labor force participation rate falling more," a shift some economists have linked to President Trump's immigration crackdown. Ahead of the report, there were growing concerns that increased deportations were reducing labor supply and keeping the jobless rate artificially low. September rate cut odds surge The revised data has added urgency to calls for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with market pricing shifting notably in the aftermath. "We still anticipate that the Fed starts to cut in September with consecutive cuts thereafter leading to about 100 basis points of cuts in total," said Leslie Falcone, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management. Falcone noted that while the Fed had already turned more cautious, the scale of the revisions surprised even the most dovish forecasters. "Some of these revisions are much more than what people expected. ...I do think that this is a bit on the weaker side. And it does put cuts back on the table." Traders seem to agree. Following the report, the probability of a September rate cut surged to about 80%, up from just 38% the day prior, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Earlier this week, Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller broke from the majority of FOMC officials, dissenting against the decision to hold interest rates steady after warning the labor market was weaker than initial data had indicated. That warning appeared prescient on Friday as markets tumbled following the report. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) fell over 2% by mid-morning as the Dow shed nearly 600 points and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped around 1.6%. Meanwhile, bond prices surged on increased rate cut bets, sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) down 11 basis points to around 4.2%. Adding to labor market concerns, escalating trade tensions were also top of mind for investors as Trump hiked tariff rates on several US trading partners, including a surprise 39% tariff on Switzerland. "The market had sort of put tariffs in the rearview mirror and assumed that the labor market was okay," Sosnik said. "Well, both of those assumptions have been overturned quite dramatically this morning." The strategist warned markets appear to be entering a "reckoning period," explaining, "We're not seeing a lot of reflexive dip buying. ...That, to me, tells me that the psychology, at least as of this particular moment, is a bit more tenuous than it was." Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
