Why Isn't Ukraine in NATO?

New York Times

13-02-2025

President Trump does not support NATO membership for Ukraine, Pete Hegseth, the U.S. defense secretary, said on Wednesday, in a significant blow to the country's hopes of eventually joining the mutual-defense alliance.
Ukraine has made membership in NATO a key strategic aim, based on the idea that the alliance's blanket of protection would guard against future Russian aggression.
But even before this week's events, membership in NATO was a distant dream for Ukraine. NATO countries have supported Ukraine with military aid, but have shown little appetite for taking on a new member that could potentially draw them into a direct war with Russia.
In his second term, Mr. Trump — who has questioned NATO's relevance and even threatened to withdraw from the alliance — now appears to be moving even further from the idea that Ukraine could join the group in the future.
What is NATO?
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, known as NATO, is a mutual-defense alliance that was established after World War II, in 1949, by the United States, Canada and 10 European countries. It is also known by its French acronym, OTAN.
The treaty for which the alliance is named has 14 articles that all NATO members must follow. Perhaps the most significant is Article 5, which declares that an attack against one member state is an attack against all.
That article placed Western Europe under U.S. protection against the Soviet Union, which during the Cold War was cementing its domination over Central and Eastern Europe and appeared to be only growing in power and ambition.
After the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, the alliance took on a wider role. NATO forces — made up of troops volunteered by member states — operated as peacekeepers in Bosnia in the 1990s and bombed Serbia in 1999 to protect Kosovo, where the alliance still has troops.
Which countries are members?
In addition to the United States and Canada, the countries that became part of NATO in 1949 were Belgium, Britain, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway and Portugal.
Since then, 20 more European states have joined: Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Turkey, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden.
Finland became a member in 2023 and Sweden joined in 2024, abandoning their military nonalignment in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Finland shares an 830-mile border with Russia.
Membership in NATO has long offered protection under the American nuclear umbrella and the principle of collective defense. But the alliance also has extensive requirements — not just spending goals for the military, but specific demands for capabilities, armaments, troop strengths and infrastructure.
How does Trump feel about NATO?
The United States has historically dominated the alliance both politically and military, but Mr. Trump has questioned NATO's relevance as well as his country's financial contribution to its efforts. Mr. Trump has railed against allies for not meeting the NATO spending goal of 2 percent of their economic output, and even threatened to withdraw from the alliance.
His warm relationship with Mr. Putin has also rattled NATO members, who have sought to isolate the Kremlin.
Mr. Trump's return to the White House has refocused NATO members' efforts to shore up financial and military cooperation amid fears of wavering support from the United States. Since Mr. Trump's first term, European Union nations have increased military outlays. They spent an estimated $340 billion on defense in 2024, a 30 percent increase compared with 2021. At least 23 of NATO's 32 members now spend 2 percent or more of their gross domestic product on defense, in line with the alliance's goals.
In Brussels this week, Mr. Hegseth offered NATO members reassurance of America's continued role in mutual defense, even as he repeated calls for its countries to increase their military spending beyond 2 percent of gross domestic product and aim for 5 percent.
The other NATO defense ministers, meeting in Brussels, insisted that negotiations cannot go ahead without Ukraine's involvement.
How has the war in Ukraine changed NATO?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has forced NATO to revisit is initial security strategy of deterrence to one that is increasingly ready for war.
NATO members have sent billions of dollars in equipment and arms to the Ukrainian military. Britain and France, for instance, have sent air-launched cruise missiles and last year. The Biden administration agreed to send Army Tactical Missile or ATACMS (pronounced 'attack 'ems'), American-made long range missiles. The alliance has also helped coordinate Ukraine's requests for humanitarian aid.
The war has raised new fears of Russian aggression among countries along NATO's eastern border, particularly the Baltic States and Poland, which has gained significant clout within the alliance. Poland's president, Andrzej Duda, was among the first foreign leaders to visit Kyiv after start of the invasion and has been one of its most hawkish backers.
With Mr. Trump in office, the alliance has explored how to become more self-sufficient, while also trying to balance relations with the United States. NATO's secretary general, Mark Rutte, has emphasized that when it comes to defense, the continent cannot realistically go it alone without the United States.
What's the status of Ukraine's membership application?
The hope of joining NATO is a central part of Ukraine's plan to secure its future within the European Union. NATO has promised eventual membership to Ukraine — without giving a timeline — since at least 2008. Kyiv officially applied to join NATO in 2022, after Russia's invasion.
NATO has also drawn up a list of overhauls Ukraine must embrace before it can become a member.
It was always unlikely that Ukraine would join the alliance while the war is ongoing, because it would put NATO's members in direct conflict with Russia. And with Mr. Hegseth's comments this week, the prospects of Ukraine's membership in NATO appears to be more remote than ever.