Japan manufacturers' sentiment rises in August after US trade deal, but tariffs cloud outlook: Reuters Tankan poll
The monthly poll, which tracks the Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan business survey, showed the manufacturers' sentiment index rising to plus 9 in August from plus 7 in July, marking a second straight month of improvement.
But the index is projected to decline to plus 4 over the next three months, signalling that manufacturers remain guarded about how the U.S. tariffs would impact their businesses.
The poll, conducted between July 30 and August 8, surveyed 497 major non-financial companies, with 241 responding on condition of anonymity.
Last month, Japan secured a trade deal with the U.S. that lowers tariffs on cars and other goods to 15% in exchange for a U.S.-bound $550 billion Japanese investment package that will come in the form of equity, loans and guarantees.
Among manufacturers, the sentiment index for the transport machinery sector, which includes Japan's vital auto industry, surged to plus 25 in August from plus 9 in July. However, it is projected to slip back to plus 9 in November.
"The business outlook remains uncertain as the U.S. tariff policies are forcing the entire automobile industry to overhaul its production plans," an auto industry manager wrote in the survey.
Another manager from the sector cited slowing sales of Japanese cars in China, in addition to the U.S. tariffs, as a source of concern.
The food industry saw the sharpest decline among all sectors, with its sentiment index falling to minus 25 from zero, with some managers pointing to persistent surges in ingredient and material costs.
For non-manufacturers, the business sentiment index fell to plus 24 in August from plus 30 in July, its first decline in five months. Companies expect a slight rebound to plus 25 in the next three months.
Real estate and construction firms, as well as retail firms, reported declines in their respective indexes, though they remained in positive territory, signalling that optimists outnumber pessimists.
Some managers at retail firms cited a drop in store visitors, while a services firm manager said heatwaves were affecting business.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Reuters
a minute ago
- Reuters
Crypto exchange Bullish's shares set to open over 75% above IPO price in debut
Aug 13 (Reuters) - Bullish's (BLSH.N), opens new tab shares were indicated to open more than 75% above their initial public offering price on Wednesday, signaling growing investor confidence in the sector and boosting prospects for future U.S. listings by other digital asset firms. If the billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel-backed crypto exchange starts to trade at the last indicated range of $60 to $65 on the NYSE, it could potentially value the company at more than $9.5 billion. Bullish raised $1.11 billion in an IPO priced at $37 apiece, valuing it at $5.4 billion and marking another sign of mainstream adoption in a sector that recently topped $4 trillion. "Bullish came out with an attractive initial valuation, and investors responded by aggressively bidding it up during the pre-IPO process," said Jeff Zell, senior research analyst at IPO Boutique. A string of regulatory wins under a pro-crypto White House, corporate treasury adoption, and ETF inflows have prompted investors to embrace the once-scorned digital asset class, driving bellwether bitcoin to record highs. Several crypto firms, including exchange Gemini and asset manager Grayscale, have also confidentially filed to go public. "Crypto is becoming one of the big pillars of the IPO market, with more deals expected not only via IPO but also through de-SPAC transactions," IPOX CEO Josef Schuster said, referring to take-public blank-check mergers that are frequently used by crypto firms. Bullish, which acquired cryptocurrency website CoinDesk in 2023, plans to convert a significant portion of the IPO proceeds to stablecoins — a slice of the crypto space that has boomed since U.S. President Donald Trump signed the Genius Act, creating a regulatory regime for the dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies. Bullish's debut marks a rare U.S. listing by a crypto exchange, joining larger retail-focused rival Coinbase (COIN.O), opens new tab, which became the first crypto player to be included in the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab index in May. Founded in 2020, Bullish targets institutional clients whose crypto holdings are expected to rise as a new White House order aims to allow alternative investments like crypto in 401(k) retirement plans. "A pure institutional strategy positions Bullish for more stable, recurring revenue than exchanges reliant on retail volumes, which tend to be cyclical and sentiment-driven," said Michael Hall, co-chief investment officer and founding partner at Nickel Digital Asset Management. Bullish CEO Tom Farley had previously worked as the president of NYSE. "For a sector still overcoming reputational headwinds, that kind of leadership experience can be a differentiator in securing institutional mandates," Hall said.
Reuters
a minute ago
- Reuters
Goldman economist, uncowed by Trump attack, plans to 'keep doing' as before
Aug 13 (Reuters) - A top economist for Goldman Sachs on Wednesday signaled no plans to change how his team conducts and publishes its research after President Donald Trump lashed out at the Wall Street firm and its chief executive because of the research team's estimate that American consumers would bear the brunt of the costs of Trump's tariffs. Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle's defense of his team's work came a day after Trump in a social media post said Goldman Chief Executive David Solomon should "not bother running a major financial institution" and lambasted the bank's economics research. The report Trump attacked, published August 10, estimated that U.S. consumers so far have borne less than a quarter of the cost of Trump's tariffs but that share would rise to two-thirds if the tariffs play out in the same way they had previously. Trump, by contrast, insists that foreign companies and governments are absorbing the cost of tariffs that now average the highest in about a century, and that American households are unscathed. He attacked Goldman and its economists for making "a bad prediction." Asked in a CNBC interview whether Trump's broadside had had a chilling effect on his team's work, Mericle said: "We're just trying to do the best economic forecast that we can for our clients, and we publish research reports like the one that we published over the weekend to inform those views. And we'll keep doing that."
Reuters
a minute ago
- Reuters
Oil prices fall 1% after US crude build and ahead of Trump-Putin talks
NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell over 1% on Wednesday after a U.S. crude supply unexpectedly rose, but losses were limited after the U.S. Treasury Secretary said President Donald Trump could leverage sanctions at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Brent crude futures dropped 80 cents, or 1.2%, to $65.32 a barrel by 10:46 a.m. EDT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 92 cents, or 1.5%, to $62.25 a barrel. U.S. crude stocks rose by 3 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a 275,000-barrel draw. Net U.S. crude imports rose last week by 699,000 barrels per day, EIA said. "These crude exports remain subpar from what we got used to, falling due to tariff pushback," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York, adding continued lower exports could weigh on prices. The International Energy Agency on Wednesday raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year but lowered its demand forecast. Trump is expected to meet with Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending Russia's war in Ukraine, which has shaken oil markets since February 2022. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday said sanctions or secondary tariffs could be increased if the meeting does not go well, calling on European leaders to also leverage sanctions. "He will make it clear to President Putin that all options are on the table," Bessent told Bloomberg Television in an interview. Meanwhile, in its monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC+ raised its global oil demand forecast for next year and trimmed estimates of supply growth from the United States and other producers outside the wider group, pointing to a tighter market. "Were we to take an aggregate of the respective IEA and OPEC oil demand growth projections for 2025 at their respective bearish and bullish ends, even a modest middle figure, say just north of 1 million bpd, can easily be serviced by non-OPEC supply growth alone at the moment," said independent energy analyst Gaurav Sharma. "So, I don't see a bullish case for oil over the near-term horizon."
