Russia says it's winning. The data says otherwise.
Russia has paid an extraordinary price in blood and equipment for marginal gains in Ukraine.
Last week, Ukraine carried out one of its most ambitious operations of the war using more than 100 drones to damage dozens of military aircraft at multiple air bases deep inside Russia. The attack, which was planned over many months and launched from within Russia, showed how Kyiv can use limited tools to achieve significant effects.
Russia, by contrast, has spent the past 17 months attempting to grind forward in Ukraine with brute force — and according to new data, it has little to show for its efforts.
Map of January 2024
JANUARY 2024
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Russian-occupied territories
in Ukraine in January 2024
MOLDOVA
Odesa
ROMANIA
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Illegally annexed by
Russia in 2014
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
JAN 2024
RUSSIA
UKRAINE
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Russian-occupied territories
in Ukraine in January 2024
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Illegally annexed
by Russia in 2014
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
JAN 2024
RUSSIA
UKRAINE
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Russian-occupied territories
in Ukraine in January 2024
Odesa
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Illegally annexed
by Russia in 2014
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
JANUARY 2024
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Russian-occupied territories
in Ukraine in January 2024
MOLDOVA
Odesa
ROMANIA
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Illegally annexed
by Russia in 2014
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Map of May 2025
MAY 2025
RUSSIA
UKRAINE
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Russia seized
1,800 square miles
between January 2024
and May 2025
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Illegally annexed
by Russia in 2014
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
MAY 2025
RUSSIA
UKRAINE
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Russia seized
1,800 square miles
between January 2024
and May 2025
Odesa
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Illegally annexed
by Russia in 2014
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
MAY 2025
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Russia seized
1,800 square miles
between January 2024
and May 2025
MOLDOVA
Odesa
ROMANIA
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Illegally annexed
by Russia in 2014
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
MAY 2025
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Russia seized
1,800 square miles
between January 2024
and May 2025
MOLDOVA
Odesa
ROMANIA
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Illegally annexed by
Russia in 2014
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
The map shows Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine in January 2024.
Since then, Russian forces have seized less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory — an area smaller than the state of Delaware.
Russian forces have advanced an average of only approximately 50 meters per day in their offensive around Kupyansk.
And approximately 135 meters per day in parts of Donetsk Oblast, where Russia has made its largest gains since January 2024.
These efforts have yielded fewer than 1,800 square miles of new territory seized since January 2024, an outcome that decisively falls short of Moscow's objective to greatly expand its control of Ukrainian territory. Russian advances in some areas have been slower than Allied forces during the grueling World War I offensive in the Somme, a battle which became a byword for costly and futile military operations.
For these marginal gains, Russia has paid an extraordinary price in blood and equipment. Russian fatalities in Ukraine now exceed the total number of Soviet and Russian soldiers killed in every war since World War II combined. By this summer, Russia will likely pass 1 million total military casualties.
Graphic shows fatalities of Russian soldiers in past wars
Russian and Ukrainian soldiers
killed in the current war
February '22 - May '25
Russia
200K-250K
Ukraine
60K-100K
Russian (and Soviet) soldiers killed
in wars since World War II
Chechnya (1st
and 2nd Wars)
12K - 25K
Afghanistan
14-16K
Ukraine (Crimea
and Donbas)
6K-7K
Hungary
669
Syria
264
Korea
120
Czechoslovakia
96
Georgia
64
Sino-Soviet
Border Conflict
58
Ethiopia
34
Algeria
25
United Arab
Republic (Egypt)
21
Vietnam
16
Angola
7
Mozambique
6
Yemen
Republic
1
Source: Author's analysis from various sources
Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed
in the current war
200K
-250K
Russia
February '22 - May '25
Ukraine
60K-100K
February '22 - May '25
Russian (and Soviet) soldiers killed
in wars since World War II
Chechnya
(1st and 2nd Wars)
12K - 25K
Afghanistan
14-16K
Ukraine (Crimea
and Donbas)
6K-7K
Hungary
669
Syria
264
Korea
120
Czechoslovakia
96
Georgia
64
Sino-Soviet
Border Conflict
58
Ethiopia
34
Algeria
25
United Arab
Republic (Egypt)
21
Vietnam
16
Angola
7
Mozambique
6
Yemen Republic
1
Source: Author's analysis from various sources
Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed in the current war
200K
-250K
Russia
February 24, 2022–May 1, 2025
Ukraine
60K-100K
February 24, 2022–May 1, 2025
Russian (and Soviet) soldiers killed in wars since World War II
Chechnya (First and Second Wars)
12K - 25K
1994–1996, 1999–2009
Afghanistan
14-16K
1979–1989
Ukraine (Crimea and Donbas)
6K-7K
2014–February 23, 2022
Hungary
669
1956
Syria
264
2015–Present
Korea
120
1950–1953
Czechoslovakia
96
1968
Georgia
64
2008
Sino-Soviet Border Conflict
58
1969
Ethiopia
34
1977–1990
Algeria
25
1962-1964
United Arab Republic (Egypt)
21
1962-1963, 1969-1972, 1973-1974
Vietnam
16
1965-1974
Angola
7
1975–1979
Mozambique
6
1967, 1969, 1975–1979
Yemen Republic
1
1962-1963
Source
:
Author's analysis from various sources
Russia has also consistently lost 2 to 5 times more fighting vehicles than Ukraine on the battlefield, including roughly 1,200 armored fighting vehicles, 3,200 infantry fighting vehicles and 1,900 tanks since January 2024.
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This brutal reality challenges the narrative that Russia is dictating the terms of the conflict. Yes, Russian forces have been on the offensive since early 2024 (with a limited number of exceptions). But initiative alone is not victory. What matters is not just what Russia has gained, but also what it has lost in exchange.
Russian troops continue to face an extensively fortified front line consisting of minefields, trenches, anti-armor obstacles and artillery positions that shred assaults. Ukraine has also saturated the battlefield with drones, which now account for the majority of battlefield deaths. Ukraine's defense-in-depth strategy, bolstered by U.S. and European support, has transformed the battlefield into a war of attrition that favors defenders and punishes attackers. Although the Kremlin appears willing to absorb this punishment in a bid to outlast Kyiv, it does not seem to be able to do more than slowly attempt to grind forward.
Indeed, the Kremlin's path to victory is not through battlefield brilliance. It is through Western abandonment. Without U.S. support, Ukraine could quickly run short of critical munitions, fighting vehicles, air defenses and precision strike capabilities, giving Russian forces an advantage on the battlefield. The psychological blow of U.S. withdrawal could also shatter Ukrainian morale, accelerating collapse not through conquest, but through exhaustion, as happened to Austria-Hungary and the Russian Empire in World War I.
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Putin is betting that political fatigue in Washington will deliver him what his military cannot. That bet extends to the negotiating table. Despite Russia's limited gains and mounting losses, Moscow has shown little interest in serious diplomacy, insisting on maximalist terms while launching new attacks. But beneath the bluster lies a far weaker hand than many in the West assume.
A child walks past a destroyed Russian tank at Saint Michael's Square in Kyiv on May 14. (Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty Images)
The United States has leverage. But it needs to wield it. U.S. policymakers should evaluate options to extend and accelerate military assistance to Ukraine, particularly air defense systems to protect Ukrainian troops and civilians alike, long-range precision strike systems to target Russian airfields and command hubs, and munitions to repel Russian assaults across an extended front. The United States should also raise the economic costs of continued war on Moscow. Congress is currently considering bipartisan legislation to impose new sanctions on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries enabling Russia's wartime economy. One analysis suggests that secondary sanctions could cut Russian oil revenue by 20 percent while raising U.S. gas prices by just 15 cents a gallon.
Russia is not on the march. It is bleeding personnel and equipment for mere meters of ground. And it will only translate into victory if Washington lets it.
Graphics by Youyou Zhou, a graphics reporter at the Opinions desk of The Washington Post.
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