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Washington Post
2 days ago
- Politics
- Washington Post
Russia says it's winning. The data says otherwise.
Russia has paid an extraordinary price in blood and equipment for marginal gains in Ukraine. Last week, Ukraine carried out one of its most ambitious operations of the war using more than 100 drones to damage dozens of military aircraft at multiple air bases deep inside Russia. The attack, which was planned over many months and launched from within Russia, showed how Kyiv can use limited tools to achieve significant effects. Russia, by contrast, has spent the past 17 months attempting to grind forward in Ukraine with brute force — and according to new data, it has little to show for its efforts. Map of January 2024 JANUARY 2024 BELARUS RUSSIA Kyiv Kharkiv UKRAINE Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine in January 2024 MOLDOVA Odesa ROMANIA CRIMEA Black Sea Illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies JAN 2024 RUSSIA UKRAINE Kyiv Kharkiv Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine in January 2024 CRIMEA Black Sea Illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies JAN 2024 RUSSIA UKRAINE Kyiv Kharkiv Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine in January 2024 Odesa CRIMEA Black Sea Illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies JANUARY 2024 BELARUS RUSSIA Kyiv Kharkiv UKRAINE Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine in January 2024 MOLDOVA Odesa ROMANIA CRIMEA Black Sea Illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies Map of May 2025 MAY 2025 RUSSIA UKRAINE Kyiv Kharkiv Russia seized 1,800 square miles between January 2024 and May 2025 CRIMEA Black Sea Illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies MAY 2025 RUSSIA UKRAINE Kyiv Kharkiv Russia seized 1,800 square miles between January 2024 and May 2025 Odesa CRIMEA Black Sea Illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies MAY 2025 BELARUS RUSSIA Kyiv Kharkiv UKRAINE Russia seized 1,800 square miles between January 2024 and May 2025 MOLDOVA Odesa ROMANIA CRIMEA Black Sea Illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies MAY 2025 BELARUS RUSSIA Kyiv Kharkiv UKRAINE Russia seized 1,800 square miles between January 2024 and May 2025 MOLDOVA Odesa ROMANIA CRIMEA Black Sea Illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies The map shows Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine in January 2024. Since then, Russian forces have seized less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory — an area smaller than the state of Delaware. Russian forces have advanced an average of only approximately 50 meters per day in their offensive around Kupyansk. And approximately 135 meters per day in parts of Donetsk Oblast, where Russia has made its largest gains since January 2024. These efforts have yielded fewer than 1,800 square miles of new territory seized since January 2024, an outcome that decisively falls short of Moscow's objective to greatly expand its control of Ukrainian territory. Russian advances in some areas have been slower than Allied forces during the grueling World War I offensive in the Somme, a battle which became a byword for costly and futile military operations. For these marginal gains, Russia has paid an extraordinary price in blood and equipment. Russian fatalities in Ukraine now exceed the total number of Soviet and Russian soldiers killed in every war since World War II combined. By this summer, Russia will likely pass 1 million total military casualties. Graphic shows fatalities of Russian soldiers in past wars Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed in the current war February '22 - May '25 Russia 200K-250K Ukraine 60K-100K Russian (and Soviet) soldiers killed in wars since World War II Chechnya (1st and 2nd Wars) 12K - 25K Afghanistan 14-16K Ukraine (Crimea and Donbas) 6K-7K Hungary 669 Syria 264 Korea 120 Czechoslovakia 96 Georgia 64 Sino-Soviet Border Conflict 58 Ethiopia 34 Algeria 25 United Arab Republic (Egypt) 21 Vietnam 16 Angola 7 Mozambique 6 Yemen Republic 1 Source: Author's analysis from various sources Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed in the current war 200K -250K Russia February '22 - May '25 Ukraine 60K-100K February '22 - May '25 Russian (and Soviet) soldiers killed in wars since World War II Chechnya (1st and 2nd Wars) 12K - 25K Afghanistan 14-16K Ukraine (Crimea and Donbas) 6K-7K Hungary 669 Syria 264 Korea 120 Czechoslovakia 96 Georgia 64 Sino-Soviet Border Conflict 58 Ethiopia 34 Algeria 25 United Arab Republic (Egypt) 21 Vietnam 16 Angola 7 Mozambique 6 Yemen Republic 1 Source: Author's analysis from various sources Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed in the current war 200K -250K Russia February 24, 2022–May 1, 2025 Ukraine 60K-100K February 24, 2022–May 1, 2025 Russian (and Soviet) soldiers killed in wars since World War II Chechnya (First and Second Wars) 12K - 25K 1994–1996, 1999–2009 Afghanistan 14-16K 1979–1989 Ukraine (Crimea and Donbas) 6K-7K 2014–February 23, 2022 Hungary 669 1956 Syria 264 2015–Present Korea 120 1950–1953 Czechoslovakia 96 1968 Georgia 64 2008 Sino-Soviet Border Conflict 58 1969 Ethiopia 34 1977–1990 Algeria 25 1962-1964 United Arab Republic (Egypt) 21 1962-1963, 1969-1972, 1973-1974 Vietnam 16 1965-1974 Angola 7 1975–1979 Mozambique 6 1967, 1969, 1975–1979 Yemen Republic 1 1962-1963 Source : Author's analysis from various sources Russia has also consistently lost 2 to 5 times more fighting vehicles than Ukraine on the battlefield, including roughly 1,200 armored fighting vehicles, 3,200 infantry fighting vehicles and 1,900 tanks since January 2024. Story continues below advertisement Advertisement This brutal reality challenges the narrative that Russia is dictating the terms of the conflict. Yes, Russian forces have been on the offensive since early 2024 (with a limited number of exceptions). But initiative alone is not victory. What matters is not just what Russia has gained, but also what it has lost in exchange. Russian troops continue to face an extensively fortified front line consisting of minefields, trenches, anti-armor obstacles and artillery positions that shred assaults. Ukraine has also saturated the battlefield with drones, which now account for the majority of battlefield deaths. Ukraine's defense-in-depth strategy, bolstered by U.S. and European support, has transformed the battlefield into a war of attrition that favors defenders and punishes attackers. Although the Kremlin appears willing to absorb this punishment in a bid to outlast Kyiv, it does not seem to be able to do more than slowly attempt to grind forward. Indeed, the Kremlin's path to victory is not through battlefield brilliance. It is through Western abandonment. Without U.S. support, Ukraine could quickly run short of critical munitions, fighting vehicles, air defenses and precision strike capabilities, giving Russian forces an advantage on the battlefield. The psychological blow of U.S. withdrawal could also shatter Ukrainian morale, accelerating collapse not through conquest, but through exhaustion, as happened to Austria-Hungary and the Russian Empire in World War I. Story continues below advertisement Advertisement Putin is betting that political fatigue in Washington will deliver him what his military cannot. That bet extends to the negotiating table. Despite Russia's limited gains and mounting losses, Moscow has shown little interest in serious diplomacy, insisting on maximalist terms while launching new attacks. But beneath the bluster lies a far weaker hand than many in the West assume. A child walks past a destroyed Russian tank at Saint Michael's Square in Kyiv on May 14. (Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty Images) The United States has leverage. But it needs to wield it. U.S. policymakers should evaluate options to extend and accelerate military assistance to Ukraine, particularly air defense systems to protect Ukrainian troops and civilians alike, long-range precision strike systems to target Russian airfields and command hubs, and munitions to repel Russian assaults across an extended front. The United States should also raise the economic costs of continued war on Moscow. Congress is currently considering bipartisan legislation to impose new sanctions on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries enabling Russia's wartime economy. One analysis suggests that secondary sanctions could cut Russian oil revenue by 20 percent while raising U.S. gas prices by just 15 cents a gallon. Russia is not on the march. It is bleeding personnel and equipment for mere meters of ground. And it will only translate into victory if Washington lets it. Graphics by Youyou Zhou, a graphics reporter at the Opinions desk of The Washington Post.
New York Times
03-06-2025
- General
- New York Times
Wednesday Briefing: Staggering Casualties in Ukraine
Troop casualties in Ukraine near 1.4 million, a study found Nearly 1 million Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the war in Ukraine, according to a study released yesterday. Roughly 400,000 Ukrainian troops were also estimated to have been killed or wounded, bringing the total casualties of the three-year conflict to a staggering 1.4 million. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S.-based think tank that compiled the study, cautioned that casualty figures were difficult to estimate. But the tally still presents an accounting of the grinding conflict. Russia's territorial gains have been slower than even the bogged-down and costly Somme advance of British and French troops in World War I, the study said. Since January 2024, Russia has seized less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory. On the battlefield: Kyiv said its troops struck the Crimean bridge yesterday for the third time. Over the weekend, remotely operated Ukrainian drones emerged from hiding inside Russia and began attacking airfields. These videos show what happened. The U.S. proposed new terms in nuclear talks with Iran President Trump's envoy to the Middle East crafted a potential nuclear arrangement with Iran that was handed over to Tehran last weekend. Under the terms of the proposal, Iran would continue to enrich uranium at low levels, suitable for nuclear power plants but not for bombs, while the U.S. and other countries work out a more detailed plan to eventually block Iran's path to a nuclear weapon. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
Yahoo
17-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Rare Earth Dominance Puts China in Powerful Geopolitical Position
Their names are difficult to pronounce, they're essential for modern manufacturing, and they're increasingly at the center of the escalating trade war between the United States and China. The global supply of these rare earths -- an essential group of 17 elements that find themselves in everything from electric vehicle batteries to vital defense technology -- are also mostly controlled by China. Beijing is now looking to use that strategic leverage amid the growing trade spat and rising tensions with Washington. In response to recently imposed tariffs, China restricted sales to the United States of seven rare earths. While not an outright ban, the move requires producers to apply for export licenses from the Chinese government, and there's growing concern it will lead to price and supply shocks that could hit US defense companies particularly hard. "What oil was to the 20th century, rare earth minerals are to the 21st," said Sean McFate, an adjunct professor at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. "Microchips, green technology, and quantum computing all require rare earths, and China has the bulk of them. It's a national security imperative that goes beyond the stock market." Beijing controls more than two-thirds of global rare earth production and more than 90 percent of processing capacity. China also effectively holds a monopoly over the supply of global heavy rare earth processing, a subset of the elements used in the US defense sector to make powerful magnets crucial to the production of fighter jets, warships, missiles, tanks, and lasers. It remains to be seen exactly how China will implement these new restrictions, but a report from the Center For Strategic And International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, warned they will likely result in a pause in exports as Beijing establishes the licensing system and cause disruptions in supply to some American firms, particular those in the national security sector. "The United States is particularly vulnerable for these supply chains," stated the April 14 report. "There is no heavy rare earths separation happening in the United States at present." The new export restrictions apply to seven medium and heavy rare earths: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium, all of which play a large part in the defense sector. Yttrium, for example, is used as a high-temperature coating for jet engines that stops them from melting mid-flight. Analysts say Beijing is looking to leverage this dependency. While the Pentagon and US firms maintain reserves, they are not estimated to be large enough to outlast a sustained disruption to the supply chain. In addition to the ban on the elements themselves, Beijing also placed 16 US entities -- all but one of which are in the defense and aerospace industries –- on its export control list, limiting them from receiving dual-use goods including the rare earths. Dimitar Gueorguiev, an associate professor at Syracuse University, says he sees the latest restrictions more as a move by Beijing to signal "its ability to throttle these exports should the trade war escalate further." "It's important to keep in mind that most importers have had this concern on their horizon for some time now so are likely stockpiled for at least a few months," he said. Still, the measures and the ability to escalate them are a formidable tool for China. Beyond its ability to curb supply, Beijing's market dominance also allows it to dictate prices, meaning it can raise costs for certain customers or undercut rare earth supplies outside its control by keeping rates low. This was seen in past measures implemented by China. In 2023, Beijing restricted exports of gallium and germanium, which are used in chips, radars, and satellites. This was followed by a full ban on their export to the United States in December 2024. Since then, prices have skyrocketed and the global market has fractured. Gallium bought from Western countries is two to three times more expensive than that bought in China, according to the consultancy Project Blue. The CSIS report also warns that Chinese export controls pose a direct threat to the US military's readiness, adding to concerns raised by lawmakers and analysts that it lags behind in its defense manufacturing. "Even before the latest restrictions, the US defense industrial base struggled with limited capacity and lacked the ability to scale up production to meet defense technology demands," the report states. The report's authors cite an estimate -- by a US Air Force official in 2022 -- that China is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than the United States. "Further bans on critical minerals inputs will only widen the gap, enabling China to strengthen its military capabilities more quickly than the United States," the report concludes. Facing pressure from China, experts say the United States needs to enact policies to shore up production at home and look into new sources abroad. As recently as the 1980s, the United States was a leader in rare earth production, but price increases led to its flagship, the Mountain Pass mine in California, to shut down in the early 2000s. That mine has since reopened and successive US administrations, including President Donald Trump's in his first term, have allocated investment for rare earth extraction and refinement facilities. But catching up to China in rare earths as well as other critical minerals is time-intensive and costly. Some working in the sector also said other parts of the tariffs implemented by Trump could have knock-on effects making it difficult to scale up quickly with rare earth production. On the Rare Earth Exchanges podcast, industry entrepreneur Daniel O'Connor said tariffed materials like steel and aluminum are crucial in mining and processing. "Let's not do tariffs on things we need to build our infrastructure," he said. Against this backdrop, the United States has also been looking to secure supplies overseas, with the Trump administration looking to get greater access to rare earths and other critical minerals in Greenland and Ukraine, where Kyiv and Washington are reportedly close to achieving a deal. Washington has also sponsored new mines in Brazil and South Africa, and the United States is funding the first major heavy rare earth processing facility outside of China, in Texas, although it will take years before it can show results. In the meantime, Beijing is expected to keep flexing its rare earth metals as tensions flare with Washington. "This has become part of Beijing's playbook when pushing back against Washington," Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, wrote on April 14. "The weaponizing of this control over critical minerals -- and the race by other countries to secure alternative supplies -- will be a central feature of a fractured global economy." 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