Pre-Markets Flat Ahead of CPI, PPI & Possible Trade Deals
Monday, June 9, 2025
In terms of scheduled economic reports, we're starting off a new trading week slowly. Pre-market futures are up marginally across the board — Dow +44 points, S&P 500 +9 and the Nasdaq +17 points. Overall, these indexes are roughly flat year over year, although the S&P 500 grew above 6K for the first time since late February.
Trade negotiations between China and the U.S. have remained ongoing, and while we have no new details emerging at this hour, we still see a pending rare-earth minerals deal between China and the top three automakers in the U.S., which will help facilitate auto building and deliveries this year. That said, a comprehensive trade deal between the world's two biggest economies remains elusive. The current deadline before announced tariffs manifest themselves is July 9th.
What to Expect from the Stock Market This Week
Our week's biggest market data comes mid-week, when on Wednesday morning the May print for Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain steady at +0.2%, with year-over-year up 20 basis points (bps) from a month ago to +2.5%. On the core side — stripping out volatile food and energy prices — analysts see headline up 10 bps to +0.3%, +2.9% on core year over year, also up 10 bps.
Year-over-year headline CPI is also known as the 'Inflation Rate,' and April's +2.3% marks the low point over the past year. We hadn't been lower on this metric since way back in February on 2021, at the foothills of the Great Reopening. This is as close as we have been to the Fed's optimal +2% inflation rate.
May's Producer Price Index (PPI) comes out Thursday morning, and this is expected to revert back to positive +0.2% from April's multi-year low -0.5%. (This was the deepest cut to PPI since April 2020 — near ground-zero of the Covid pandemic.) A +0.2% gets us back to where we were in February of this year.
Year-over-year PPI on headline reached +2.4% in April, with core year over year +3.1%. This sounds bad relative to the near-2% levels of these other price indexes, but keep in mind core PPI year over year back in March was up to +4.0% — notching a 2-year high. Much of this information contains some tariff 'noise' that makes these indexes harder to view clearly.
Earnings Reports Continue This Week
While we acknowledge that calendar Q1 earnings season has wrapped up, are earnings reports ever really 'done'? This week, on Wednesday afternoon, brings us Oracle ORCL results for fiscal Q4, which expects modest earnings growth on +8.8% in quarterly revenues.
Thursday after the bell we'll hear from Adobe Systems ADBE and RH RH, formerly Restoration Hardware. Adobe is expected to fetch double-digit earnings growth, while RH's loss per share is expected to come down considerably. (You can see the full Zacks Earnings Calendar here.)
Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>
Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor Stock
It's only 1/9,000th the size of NVIDIA which skyrocketed more than +800% since we recommended it. NVIDIA is still strong, but our new top chip stock has much more room to boom.
With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $803 billion by 2028.
See This Stock Now for Free >>
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Adobe Inc. (ADBE): Free Stock Analysis Report
RH (RH): Free Stock Analysis Report
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CBC
28 minutes ago
- CBC
Mexican President Sheinbaum seeking meeting with Trump at G7
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum says she hopes to have a pull-aside conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump when the two North American leaders travel to Alberta next week for the G7 summit. Her trip north comes as both Canada and Mexico grapple with Trump's persistent tariffs and economic threats, which have also stressed the Canada-Mexico relationship; Ontario Premier Doug Ford has suggested Canada go it alone with the U.S. on trade. Mexico is not part of the G7, but other leaders are often invited for discussions around the global leader summit. Last month, Sheinbaum confirmed she was invited but wasn't sure if she'd attend. "I have decided that I will attend the G7," Sheinbaum said in a statement Monday. "The foreign affairs minister is working on setting up bilateral meetings — it is likely that we will have one with Trump." Prime Minister Mark Carney's office has signalled he is hoping to reach a deal around tariffs and trade around the G7 meetings, taking place in Kananaskis, Alta., from June 15 to 17. The prime minister has also said he wants to make progress on bilateral issues with the U.S. before talks take place on the trilateral Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). A review of that deal is officially slated to start in 2026, although Mexican officials have suggested they expect a review to start earlier than that.
Globe and Mail
41 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
Analysts: 1 Thing Apple Could Do to Make AAPL Stock a Buy Again Now
Apple (AAPL) remains one of the world's most valuable companies, but recent market performance and analyst sentiment suggest cracks in its premium valuation. Needham downgraded AAPL to 'Hold,' in part based on decelerating earnings growth, constrained innovation in generative AI, and mounting pressures on the commission-based model of the App Store. Analyst Laura Martin also emphasized that Apple could materially improve its bull case by 'aggressively pursuing' advertising revenue, an underdeveloped but potentially lucrative growth channel. With the stock still trading at over 26 times forward earnings, above the company's 10-year median and the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) in general, shareholders are questioning the growth thesis. Apple's Q2 FY2025 results displayed modest gains, with a 5% year-over-year increase in revenue to $95.4 billion and a rise in EPS of 8% to $1.65. Those gains, however, are behind those of competitors such as Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL), which exhibited much greater margin expansion and accelerating revenue. While Apple is still a powerhouse in premium hardware, analysts contend that its ecosystem requires a fresh growth trigger, such as advertising. About Apple Stock Apple (AAPL) is mega-cap tech giant focused on consumer electronics, software, and online services. Based in Cupertino, California, Apple has a market cap above $3 trillion fueled by flagship devices like the iPhone, iPad, and Mac, and cloud-based services like iCloud and Apple Music. AAPL shares have fallen about 21% from their 52-week high point of $260.10, most recently priced at about $205. After a brief recovery, the stock continues to trail the S&P 500's small YTD return of 2.1%. Some analysts now see lower levels, in the range of $170 to $180, as a reasonable point to enter, citing valuation issues and competition concerns. The company is priced at 28.2x forward earnings and 7.66x price-sales. While these are roughly in line with its five-year averages, they are rich valuations that are causing some investors to take a second look. Although Apple does pay a dividend, it is modest at $1.04 per share, and the company's recent share buyback authorization of $100 billion is still the focal point of its capital return policy. Apple Beats Q2 Earnings, But Forward Momentum Slows Apple reported fiscal Q2 results, besting Wall Street forecasts in terms of both revenue and EPS. It reported $95.4 billion in revenue, an increase of 5% year-over-year, and EPS of $1.65, an increase of 8%. Operating cash flow totaled $24 billion, powering a staggering $29 billion return to shareholders in the form of dividends and repurchases. In the future, however, Apple's growth trajectory looks to be less impressive. Already priced in is the iPhone 16e launch, so flat top-line growth is predicted by analysts for fiscal 2025. Further, Apple's heavy exposure to hardware sales makes it susceptible to macroeconomic slowdowns and competition. Regulatory danger also lurks in the wings. Apple's App Store 'platform tax,' a 15%–30% cut on in-app transaction income, is under international scrutiny. Regulators and competitors are trying to dismantle this stream of income, presently one of the major drivers of Services segment profits. What Analysts Project for Apple Stock Apple is graded a 'Moderate Buy' by Barchart's 37 analysts in coverage, but recent sentiment is weaker. The average 12-month target price of AAPL is at $231.02, signaling 13% upside from current prices. The highest estimate is at $300, signaling best-case upside of almost 50%, and the lowest of $141, signaling worst-case downside of roughly 30%. This broad range is a reflection of the unclear path of Apple's growth story.
Globe and Mail
41 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
Top Analyst Ratings: June 9th, 2025
Top Ratings: (MSFT) (BA) (IBM) (JNJ) (TSLA) Adobe received a update from TD Cowen, with the analyst maintaining a Hold rating and setting a price target of $490 as of June 9, 2025. Boeing was maintained at Outperform by RBC, with the price target raised from $200 to $230 on June 9, 2025. Cisco was maintained at an Overweight rating by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co, with a price target of $73 on June 9, 2025. Costco was downgraded from Buy to Hold by Truist Financial, with a price target set at $1100 on June 9, 2025. IBM was maintained at a Buy rating by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, with the price target increased from $270 to $290 as of June 9, 2025. Johnson & Johnson received a target update from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, with the analyst maintaining a Neutral rating and raising the price target from $159 to $161 on June 9, 2025. McDonald's was reiterated at an Equal Weight rating by Morgan Stanley & Co., with a price target of $324 on June 9, 2025. Microsoft was maintained at a Hold rating by Morningstar, with a price target of $505 as of June 9, 2025. Oracle had its price target raised by BMO Capital Markets, with the analyst maintaining a Market Perform rating and increasing the target from $175 to $200 on June 9, 2025. Tesla received two separate updates: Robert W. Baird & Co. reiterates with a Neutral rating and price target of $320. Morgan Stanley & Co. maintained their Buy rating and setting a price target of $410, on June 9, 2025.
