What could security guarantees in Ukraine look like with US involvement?

ITV News

a day ago

All eyes are on Ukrainian peace talks after world leaders met on Monday in the White House to discuss a path to peace between Russia and Ukraine.
The meeting followed Trump's three-hour talk with Putin in Alaska last week and is seen as a meaningful step towards direct negotiations between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin.
Perhaps significantly, US President Donald Trump signalled for the first time that the US would be prepared to support European partners in providing security guarantees for Ukraine following a peace deal.
Confirming these talks, Trump later wrote on his social media platform Truth Social: "During the meeting we discussed Security Guarantees for Ukraine, which Guarantees would be provided by the various European Countries, with a coordination with the United States of America."
Ukraine and Europe's concerns have been centered around giving Russia time to re-arm in a temporary peace deal, only to see further invasions several years from now. The hope is security guarantees will deter and prevent Russia from doing this, leading to a lasting peace in the region.
What these guarantees might look like and to what extent the US would be involved remains unclear but several suggestions have been made.
Territorial negotiations
What form security guarantees take, depends in part on what agreement is reached on territory between Russia and Ukraine.
The main area of contention is the Donbas region, made up of both Donetsk and Luhansk. While Russia has captured one fifth of total Ukrainian territory, it has failed to take these regions fully.
Trump has said in his meeting with Putin on Friday, the Russian president made clear he wanted this region as part of any peace deal. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff elaborated this would mean those regions in their entirety as defined by law - a deal which would mean Ukraine conceding more land.
In Brussels, Zelenskyy rejected this notion, saying any talks involving land must be based on current front lines, suggesting he will not abandon land that Russia has not taken.
"The contact line is the best line for talking, and the Europeans support this," he said. "The constitution of Ukraine makes it impossible, impossible to give up territory or trade land."
Broken promises
Ukraine and Europe feel security guarantees are needed to ensure Russia can be trusted to uphold any peace deal struck between the nations.
Asked recently about how far the UK trusts Russia in any peace negotiations Downing Street said it "wouldn't trust Putin as far as it could throw him," hinting towards a low level of faith between both sides.
Europe's misgivings are not without grounds though. In 1994, Russia, US, and UK signed the Budapest Memorandum, providing assurances they would respect Ukraine's sovereignty and borders in exchange for the latter's surrender and disarmament of its nuclear arsenal.
Despite these assurances, in 2014 Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, an act denounced by leaders around the world and leading to Russia's expulsion from the then G8.
With fighting on this newly established frontline continuing, Ukraine - supported by both France and Germany -signed a ceasefire deal in 2019 with Russia at the Paris Normandy Format Summit.
It is this ceasefire Zelenskyy referred to in his memorable confrontation with Trump and Vice President Vance in the Oval Office argument several months ago, accusing the Russian President of again failing to uphold his end of the deal.
These broken treaties have led many to seek further protection and guarantees in any future peace talks between the long-fighting countries.
"Article 5-like protection"
In comments made following Trump's meeting with Putin in Alaska on Friday, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said: "The United States could offer Article five-like protection," alongside European allies in any future peace deal.
'Article five' refers to a central clause in the Nato alliance, stating an attack on one is an attack all, binding Nato members to defend other members attacked in this way.
Ukraine has sought Nato membership since Russians invasions began, seeing it as a potential deterrent to further Russian aggression.
Full Nato membership has previously been dismissed by the US and confirming this stance remained unchanged, Trump wrote on Truth Social: 'Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!'
The protections afforded by an "article five-like" security guarantee appear to be a compromise, and one US official says Putin has already agreed that would be acceptable.
It is typically thought these would mean European and potentially American forces operating in Ukraine as both a defensive force should Russian aggression ramp up, and a deterrent for Russia to avoid European and American casualties.