‘Liberation Day' Tariffs Test a Fragile Feelgood Factor in M&A
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Business Insider
8 hours ago
- Business Insider
Walmart (WMT) Saves Halloween From Trump's Scary Tariff Tirade
The kids and the parents of America can relax – President Trump's tariff tirade has failed to put the frighteners on Halloween and chill Christmas. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. According to a new report, U.S. retail giant Walmart (WMT) has ensured that Halloween costumes and décor, holiday decorations, Barbie dolls, air fryers and Mario Kart characters will be in stock for the big days. Front-Loaded Supply Walmart, according to data from Import Genius, has front-loaded its supply chain strategies both before Trump's tariffs were first imposed and then during the window when the levies were paused. 'The front-loading patterns for the companies over the summer of 2024, ahead of the East Coast Longshoremen strike fears; the first few months of 2025, ahead of Liberation Day tariffs; and the unpausing of Chinese shipments in June, which arrived in July; are visible in the charts,' William George, director of research for ImportGenius said, as reported by CNBC. Walmart has faced a tariff whammy with the hikes in imports from countries battered by high tariffs such as China, forcing the value retailer to hike prices. Rising inflation and economic uncertainty have also hit both Walmart and other stocks. Walmart has had to be creative to avoid the worst of the levies given the breadth of its international business. – see above. Tariff Tips This has recently included opening new routes for its suppliers out of Vietnam, which has a lower tariff rate than China. Walmart, alongside other retailers, have also reportedly asked Indian exporters to pause shipments of apparel and textiles until further notice because of sky-high tariffs there. The impact of tariffs will be keenly followed by investors when Walmart issues its Q2 earnings later this week. Although it has failed to hamper the company's share price, which is up over 13% in the year-to-date. Wall Street is expecting WMT to report earnings of $0.72 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 7.46%. Revenues for the period are expected to come in at $175.51 billion, up 3.65% from the prior-year quarter. Is WMT a Good Stock to Buy Now? On TipRanks, WMT has a Strong Buy consensus based on 23 Buy ratings. Its highest price target is $130. WMT stock's consensus price target is $114.52, implying a 12.48% upside.
Yahoo
14 hours ago
- Yahoo
IPO & M&A Market Rebound: What it Means for Goldman's IB Business
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS is capitalizing on the ongoing rebound in global deal-making activities. The Global Banking & Markets division, which houses its investment banking (IB) business, remains the key growth engine. The division revenues accounted for 69.4% of the total net revenues as of June 30, 2025. Although 2025 began with optimism, market sentiment briefly dipped following Trump's tariff plans announced on 'Liberation Day' In April. Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have since regained momentum, and Goldman's IB fees rose 8% year over year in the first half of 2025. Specifically, advisory revenues rose 16% year over year, while debt underwriting revenues were up 2% and equity underwriting revenues grew nearly 1% in the first half of 2025. Additionally, Goldman, one of the largest and well-known investment banks, maintained its leading position in announced and completed M&As, reinforcing its strength in Global Banking & Markets. M&As are expected to remain robust in the second half of 2025, driven by stronger stock valuations, pent-up demand, and corporates' pursuit of greater scale and competitiveness. This outlook is further supported by regulatory shifts under the Trump administration, with the Federal Reserve moving to loosen 'well-managed' requirements and streamline approval processes, creating more conducive conditions for consolidation. These shifts should further bolster Goldman's advisory revenues, wherein it already holds a commanding lead. At the same time, the IPO market is showing renewed vitality. Investor demand for new issues is improving, particularly in technology and crypto-related offerings, aided by stronger equity markets, mainstream adoption of digital assets, favorable regulations, and a surge in Bitcoin prices. Importantly, the IPO pipeline is expected to remain solid through the end of 2025, signaling continued strength in equity underwriting. With rising M&A deals and IPO pipelines, Goldman's decent IB backlog and leadership position will continue to support its IB performance. Here's How GS Competes With MS & JPM in IB Business Morgan Stanley's MS IB business has been subdued this year, with the metric inching up 1% from the prior-year quarter. Its fixed income underwriting fees decreased 2%, while equity underwriting income rose 5% year over year. Morgan Stanley's advisory fees rose 2% year over year in the first half of 2025. Morgan Stanley remains cautiously optimistic about the performance of the IB business, supported by a stable and diversified M&A pipeline. JPMorgan's JPM total IB fees (in the Commercial & Investment Bank segment) grew 9% year over year in the first half of 2025. Specifically, JPMorgan's advisory and debt underwriting fees rose 11% and 14% year over year, respectively. On the contrary, equity underwriting fees fell 7%. Given its leading market share, diversified capabilities, and global reach, JPMorgan is well-positioned to witness a solid performance in the upcoming period. Goldman's Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates GS shares have gained 27.7% year to date compared with the industry's growth of 23.2%. Price Performance Image Source: Zacks Investment Research From a valuation standpoint, Goldman trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.64X, above the industry's average of 14.47X. Price-to-Earnings F12M Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GS's 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year rallies of 12.6% and 14.9%, respectively. Likewise, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for GS's 2025 and 2026 sales implies year-over-year increases of 6.3% and 6.5%, respectively. The estimates for both years have been revised upward over the past 30 days. Estimates Revision Trend Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Goldman currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) : Free Stock Analysis Report JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) : Free Stock Analysis Report Morgan Stanley (MS) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Politico
a day ago
- Politico
A choose-your-own-adventure economy
Editor's note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. Quick Fix If you thought President Donald Trump's tariffs would push up prices and pinch profit margins, recent economic data has confirmed your fears. If you believe the economic cognoscenti are a bunch of Chicken Littles, stronger-than-expected retail sales data and the second-quarter corporate earnings boom suggest you may be right. That economic Rorschach test will continue this morning when Home Depot hosts its second-quarter earnings call at 9 a.m. Three other big box retailers — Lowe's, Target and Walmart — are scheduled to provide their own updates later this week. The financial results reported by all four will serve as important barometers for how U.S. retailers are faring now that hefty new taxes have been applied to their imports. Investors will be watching closely for how the companies' supply chain, hiring and pricing strategies are evolving to account for those levies, or if they're absorbing costs to spare consumers. Critically, the calls may also shed light on whether consumer behavior has changed. Did Americans load up on one-off, big-ticket purchases during the lengthy gap between Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' announcement and the Aug. 7 effective date? Has economic uncertainty prompted them to cut back on nonessentials and downshift to low-cost options on staples? Alternatively, are doom-and-gloom sentiment surveys and panicky headlines obscuring normal spending patterns? What — if anything — can those insights tell us about how the economy might fare going forward? It's likely that tariffs will push up consumer prices in the coming months — this was reinforced by last week's report on higher wholesale prices — but their impact on future inflation and spending is still TBD. Notably, inflation within service industries, which are less sensitive to tariff costs than retailers, has spiked in recent months. The picture coming out of the labor market is also cloudy; unemployment is low, but non-farm payrolls are growing much more slowly than during the post-pandemic boom. That combination has complicated clear-cut narratives about the economy's trajectory. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will provide his own view at the end of the week at the Fed's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Fed Chair's previous speeches at the Kansas City Fed's economic summit offered clear guidance on his outlook for both the economy and interest rates. In the current climate, clarity is hard to come by. It's TUESDAY — For econ policy thoughts, Wall Street tips, personnel moves or general insights, email Sam at ssutton@ Driving the Day Housing starts and building permits data for July is out at 8:30 a.m. … Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins speaks in a fireside chat about Project Crypto at SALT's Wyoming Blockchain Symposium … Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium at 2:10 p.m. … Still underwater — The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 40 percent of voters approve of Trump's job performance. Just 37 percent approve of his handling of the economy. Watch this space — White House officials are weighing a plan to take a 10 percent stake in Intel, according to Bloomberg's Mackenzie Hawkins, Ryan Gould, and Josh Wingrove. The terms of the deal could involve 'converting some or all of the company's grants from the US Chips and Science Act into equity … Intel has been slated to receive a combined $10.9 billion in Chips Act grants for commercial and military production.' — Late Monday, Intel announced that SoftBank had agreed to invest $2 billion in the chip maker. 'This strategic investment reflects our belief that advanced semiconductor manufacturing and supply will further expand in the United States, with Intel playing a critical role,' SoftBank Chairman and CEO Masayoshi Son said in a statement. Whoa — Roger Alford, who until last month was second-in-command of the Justice Department's antitrust unit, is alleging that senior officials cut deals with favored lobbyists and undermined the independence of antitrust enforcement, The WSJ's Dave Michaels reports. He alleged that two aides to Attorney General Pam Bondi interfered to allow Hewlett-Packard Enterprise to acquire Juniper Networks. All smiles — Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and seven other European leaders at the White House to discuss a path forward on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While Trump broke with European leaders on the need for a ceasefire, he also expressed a new willingness to back Ukraine's long-term security in a potential peace deal, Eli Stokols, Jake Traylor and Veronika Melkozerova report. On the Hill Lawler's gambit — Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' isn't popular in blue states. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) — who played a big role in negotiations to lift the state and local tax deduction — is leaning into the measure as he prepares for a tight reelection battle next year. 'You have to be on offense, you have to be explaining what you did and why and articulate the case,' Lawler told Nick Reisman. 'The progressive left is never going to support anything Republicans do. I had folks booing tax cuts, but they're going to benefit from it as well. It comes down to the middle and where does the middle fall.' Another day, another Durbin-Marshall fight — Per our Morning Defense colleague Connor O'Brien, a coalition of eight banking and credit union trade groups is urging congressional leaders not to allow legislation that would crack down on credit card swipe fees to be attached to the National Defense Authorization Act ahead of debate on the must-pass policy bills. 'Shoehorning such a contentious banking mandate into a defense authorization bill is a dangerous legislative shortcut that could distract from genuine national security issues,' they wrote. Crypto Crypto has a new industry group — The American Innovation Project launches today with the financial backing of the Cedar Innovation Foundation and cryptocurrency company DCG, Declan Harty reports. The nonprofit group plans to host a number of events around crypto policy and technology — the first of which will be an off-the-record 'summit' Thursday in Jackson, Wyoming. Other AIP backers include Coinbase, Kraken and the National Cryptocurrency Association. 'Our mission is simple, but urgent: we must equip America's leaders with the knowledge, context, and tools they need as they consider timely rules and regulations that meet the moment and account for a rapidly evolving technological landscape,' said Solana Policy Institute President Kristin Smith, who is serving as AIP's board president, in a statement. Basel rethink? — A coalition of global financial trade associations is urging the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to reassess its Cryptoasset Exposures Standard, which is scheduled to take effect in January. In a new letter, the groups contend that the applications of distributed ledger technologies have expanded since the standard was adopted in 2022, and that 'the overall size and significance of the cryptoasset market have increased substantially, meaning many of the premises underlying the Cryptoasset Standard require adjustments.' The signatories include the Global Financial Markets Association, the Institute of International Finance, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Financial Services Forum, the Bank Policy Institute; the Global Blockchain Business Council and Global Digital Finance. The Economy Still in a stall — A key measure of U.S. home builder confidence has been stuck in negative territory for 16 months. 'Given a slowing housing market and other recent economic data, the Fed's monetary policy committee should return to lowering the federal funds rate, which will reduce financing costs for housing construction and indirectly help mortgage interest rates,' National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Robert Dietz said in a statement. Jobs report Valerie Song, a longtime Office of the Comptroller of the Currency attorney who was most recently acting associate chief counsel, has joined Klaros as a senior director in the firm's licensing practice.
