'Three-way race': Could Jacqui Lambie lose her Senate seat?
Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie is at risk of losing her seat, with vote counting for the state's final Senate positions remaining tight. She's facing competition from , daughter of party leader Pauline Hanson, for the sixth and final seat. But the final spot could also be , which secured a more than 8 per cent swing in Tasmania.
As of Tuesday morning, 62.9 per cent of the vote had been counted, with two of the six Tasmanian Senate seats still in doubt. Labor's Carol Brown and Richard Dowling, the Liberals' Claire Chandler and Nick McKim have secured the first four seats. The Liberals' Richard Colbeck is vying for the fifth or sixth spot. While One Nation is seen as a potential threat, the Jacqui Lambie Network is currently ahead with 17,273 votes to One Nation's 12,949.
Candidates need 35,071 votes to secure a Senate seat. Lambie's party is seeing a -1.6 per cent swing, while Hanson's is up 1.39 per cent. ABC's chief election analyst Antony Green said the likely outcome is "no change — two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens — with Jacqui Lambie in a race for a seat with the third Labor candidate".
Shaun Ratcliff, principal at social and political research firm Accent Research, says the seat is a "three-way race" — and One Nation isn't in it. "Jacqui Lambie looks like she has a pretty good shot at one of those last two spots," he told SBS News. "But I think it's Labor, Liberal and Jacqui Lambie — it's not One Nation." But due to preference flows, the result remains hard to call. "There's not a lot of daylight between the Liberals' second spot, Labor's third spot, and Jacqui — they're all pretty close," Ratcliff said. "If one of them got really strong preference flows, it gets them over the line for the fifth or sixth spot." "I wouldn't feel confident if I were any of those three. It's close enough that it could go anywhere."
Ratcliff said the result may not be known for weeks, until the Australian Electoral Commission finishes its official count. Simon Welsh, director of political research and polling firm Redbridge Group, said Lambie could benefit from preference flows from minor parties. "Your gut feel would be that all those crazy minor [parties] would probably land on a Jacqui Lambie before they land on a Labor or a major party," he said. While much is still up in the air, one outcome seems increasingly unlikely. "The only thing I'd be reasonably confident on is that it seems really unlikely that One Nation gets a spot from that far behind," Ratcliff said.
Nationally, Labor is on track to win 28 Senate seats, the Coalition 26, and the Greens 11, with the remaining spots going to crossbenchers. "Labor looks set to gain three seats at the expense of the Coalition, which will aid the passage of legislation," Green said. To pass laws, the government needs 39 Senate votes. If these results hold, Labor would only need the support of the Greens to pass its agenda through parliament.
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The Advertiser
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"It's embarrassing when you're involved in national or international sports and businesses and you go to carnivals or Tests and people just continually shit-can us. "They talk down to us and we continually prove them right." Former Australia cricket captain Tim Paine has lashed Tasmania as "self-sabotaging", admitting he's embarrassed by the political upheaval that threatens to kill off the island's planned AFL team. The Tasmania Devils are at risk of extinction before they have even played a game, after Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff on Thursday lost a no-confidence motion. It means Tasmanians are set to return to the polls, likely delaying construction of a new stadium at Macquarie Point in Hobart. The proposed 23,000-seat roofed venue, which is now slated to cost $945 million, is a condition of the Devils entering the AFL in 2028. Devils chief executive Brendon Gale and chairman Grant O'Brien fear an early election would delay the stadium project and put the club's licence at serious risk. The saga has prompted an emotional response from Devils staff, politicians and public figures this week. "It is staggering that we do this to ourselves, we are self-sabotaging state," Paine said on SEN radio. "I'm as proud as anyone to be a Tasmanian but at times it is embarrassing. "I was with (Brisbane Lions coach) Chris Fagan the last few days at the football club, everyone you speak to, they ask if it's gonna happen. "Even Fages, a proud Tasmanian, you could see in his face and the look in his eye, he was shocked that once again we have gone out of our way to stuff something up that would be great for our state. "It's a doomsday scenario, but what if the AFL revokes the licence?" The former Test wicketkeeper felt Tasmania would continue to be the butt of jokes if it can't deliver an AFL team. "Tassie has for a long time been the laughing stock for the other states because of our inability to get stuff done," Paine said. "When I was playing cricket people would say, 'Oh you're heading back to 'Slowbart', nothing ever happens'. "It's the same as it was 10 years ago, and we keep proving people right. "It's embarrassing when you're involved in national or international sports and businesses and you go to carnivals or Tests and people just continually shit-can us. "They talk down to us and we continually prove them right." Former Australia cricket captain Tim Paine has lashed Tasmania as "self-sabotaging", admitting he's embarrassed by the political upheaval that threatens to kill off the island's planned AFL team. The Tasmania Devils are at risk of extinction before they have even played a game, after Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff on Thursday lost a no-confidence motion. It means Tasmanians are set to return to the polls, likely delaying construction of a new stadium at Macquarie Point in Hobart. The proposed 23,000-seat roofed venue, which is now slated to cost $945 million, is a condition of the Devils entering the AFL in 2028. Devils chief executive Brendon Gale and chairman Grant O'Brien fear an early election would delay the stadium project and put the club's licence at serious risk. The saga has prompted an emotional response from Devils staff, politicians and public figures this week. "It is staggering that we do this to ourselves, we are self-sabotaging state," Paine said on SEN radio. "I'm as proud as anyone to be a Tasmanian but at times it is embarrassing. "I was with (Brisbane Lions coach) Chris Fagan the last few days at the football club, everyone you speak to, they ask if it's gonna happen. "Even Fages, a proud Tasmanian, you could see in his face and the look in his eye, he was shocked that once again we have gone out of our way to stuff something up that would be great for our state. "It's a doomsday scenario, but what if the AFL revokes the licence?" The former Test wicketkeeper felt Tasmania would continue to be the butt of jokes if it can't deliver an AFL team. "Tassie has for a long time been the laughing stock for the other states because of our inability to get stuff done," Paine said. "When I was playing cricket people would say, 'Oh you're heading back to 'Slowbart', nothing ever happens'. "It's the same as it was 10 years ago, and we keep proving people right. "It's embarrassing when you're involved in national or international sports and businesses and you go to carnivals or Tests and people just continually shit-can us. "They talk down to us and we continually prove them right."
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