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SBS Australia
06-05-2025
- Politics
- SBS Australia
'Bucking the trend': Some of the 2025 election's surprises
Two seats currently held by teals remain too close to call this election While the Greens' primary vote was steady, the party has lost support in Metropolitan areas One seat in Victoria yet to be called could go to the Nationals It might be weeks until some of the closest seats in the 2025 election could be called, with some races down to only a few hundred votes. Despite the uncertainty, there are several patterns emerging in the still-undecided seats. Election analysts Simon Welsh from Redbridge Group and John Ratcliff from Accent Research spoke to SBS News on Monday afternoon about the seats to watch out for. "They've done well in Sydney, they've held the seats they have in Sydney — Bradfield looks likely but it's close," he said. The Sydney seats of Mackellar, Wentworth and Warringah have also all been retained by independents. However, things are looking a bit tighter in Victoria's teal-held seats. "The two community independents in Melbourne are struggling," Ratcliff said. Kooyong — where independent MP Monique Ryan is fending off Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer — is still too close to call. "It will take some days — possibly some weeks — for the outcome to be confirmed," Ryan wrote on Facebook on Monday morning. The seat of Goldstein — where incumbent teal Zoe Daniels is up against the Liberals' Tim Wilson — is also down to the wire. Welsh said Goldstein is demographically different to other teal seats. "It doesn't have that typical teal mix of progressive urban, older middle class and younger people coming in," he said. "The Greens' primary votes have been going backwards in most of the inner cities of most of Australia's big metros for about a year," he said. "So this isn't just an election campaign thing." Ratcliff said the primary vote for the Greens went backwards in Melbourne, Macnamara, Griffith, Ryan, and Brisbane. "The Greens are blaming Liberal preferences, but their own primary vote dropped in most of their seats," he said. However, the party's vote across the nation as a whole has not dropped. Ratcliff and Welsh said the Greens had picked up more votes in outer suburban areas, which could become a future battleground for political hopefuls running on a Greens ticket. The party is yet to pick up any new seats, although Labor MP Peter Khalil is facing a tight contest against former Victorian Greens leader Samantha Ratnam in the Melbourne seat of Wills, which at the time of publication is still undecided. Welsh said the seat of Bendigo in Central Victoria is seeing "really interesting" results. "It's a bucking of the trend — this is a Labor seat going potentially National," he said. "In fact, my gut feel is that it will be going to the Nationals." The seat is held by Labor MP Lisa Chesters, who is facing a strong contest from the Nationals' Andrew Lethlean. Welsh said a Nationals win in the seat could have long-lasting implications. "The implications of that for the Victorian state election next year are that Bendigo is the region where the premier has her seat," he said. Ratcliff added the electorate "could go either way at this point". Visit the to access articles, podcasts and videos from SBS News, NITV and our teams covering more than 60 languages.
SBS Australia
06-05-2025
- Politics
- SBS Australia
'Three-way race': Could Jacqui Lambie lose her Senate seat?
Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie is at risk of losing her seat, with vote counting for the state's final Senate positions remaining tight. She's facing competition from , daughter of party leader Pauline Hanson, for the sixth and final seat. But the final spot could also be , which secured a more than 8 per cent swing in Tasmania. As of Tuesday morning, 62.9 per cent of the vote had been counted, with two of the six Tasmanian Senate seats still in doubt. Labor's Carol Brown and Richard Dowling, the Liberals' Claire Chandler and Nick McKim have secured the first four seats. The Liberals' Richard Colbeck is vying for the fifth or sixth spot. While One Nation is seen as a potential threat, the Jacqui Lambie Network is currently ahead with 17,273 votes to One Nation's 12,949. Candidates need 35,071 votes to secure a Senate seat. Lambie's party is seeing a -1.6 per cent swing, while Hanson's is up 1.39 per cent. ABC's chief election analyst Antony Green said the likely outcome is "no change — two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens — with Jacqui Lambie in a race for a seat with the third Labor candidate". Shaun Ratcliff, principal at social and political research firm Accent Research, says the seat is a "three-way race" — and One Nation isn't in it. "Jacqui Lambie looks like she has a pretty good shot at one of those last two spots," he told SBS News. "But I think it's Labor, Liberal and Jacqui Lambie — it's not One Nation." But due to preference flows, the result remains hard to call. "There's not a lot of daylight between the Liberals' second spot, Labor's third spot, and Jacqui — they're all pretty close," Ratcliff said. "If one of them got really strong preference flows, it gets them over the line for the fifth or sixth spot." "I wouldn't feel confident if I were any of those three. It's close enough that it could go anywhere." Ratcliff said the result may not be known for weeks, until the Australian Electoral Commission finishes its official count. Simon Welsh, director of political research and polling firm Redbridge Group, said Lambie could benefit from preference flows from minor parties. "Your gut feel would be that all those crazy minor [parties] would probably land on a Jacqui Lambie before they land on a Labor or a major party," he said. While much is still up in the air, one outcome seems increasingly unlikely. "The only thing I'd be reasonably confident on is that it seems really unlikely that One Nation gets a spot from that far behind," Ratcliff said. Nationally, Labor is on track to win 28 Senate seats, the Coalition 26, and the Greens 11, with the remaining spots going to crossbenchers. "Labor looks set to gain three seats at the expense of the Coalition, which will aid the passage of legislation," Green said. To pass laws, the government needs 39 Senate votes. If these results hold, Labor would only need the support of the Greens to pass its agenda through parliament.
SBS Australia
05-05-2025
- Politics
- SBS Australia
Accusing others of a woke agenda, Peter Dutton became a victim of his own culture war
In the first week of the federal election campaign, Peter Dutton flagged a crackdown on "woke" culture in schools. Accent Research principal Shaun Ratcliff said he thought Dutton's culture war comments "hurt them everywhere". Redbridge Group director Simon Welsh agrees with Ratcliff and said the comments took the Coalition off-message and away from what most conservative voters cared about, such as the economy and cost of living. "It didn't ... speak to them in a meaningful way," he said. Welsh said that, if outer suburban/regional areas were the target audience for that type of messaging, the suburban areas aren't what the Liberals imagine them to be. "They are young, they are diverse [and] they are increasingly progressive," he said. He said the culture war message would be a "clear values disconnect" for those in outer suburban areas, if not also in regional areas. "[It] created a fear of the chaos and uncertainty that could present because that's Trump's core brand — and that's definitely what economically stressed voters in Australia did not want," Welsh said. While there were plenty of Coalition policies — such as the plan for seven nuclear power plants — to worry voters, Welsh said adding Trump into the mix also brought fears of chaos, risk and uncertainty. "That's not what these voters were looking for; they were looking for a positive message," he said. Welsh said that outer suburban voters, as well as those in inner seat seats, also didn't like "punching down". "There was a sort of meanness or a nastiness to what the Libs were proposing that fed into that." Ratcliff agreed and said the anti-woke message only really help to stop voters on the right flank of the Coalition from jumping to parties like . "But the issue is then, you're trying to out-compete One Nation on being anti-woke," he said. "So you get drawn into this battle — [and] it's almost impossible for the Coalition to win." He said the Coalition had to appeal to a wider range of voters than One Nation so chasing voters on the right meant they were ceding ground to Labor in the centre. "The danger of doing so means you're giving up the middle class nurse married to a teacher in Chisholm who might be open to voting for the Coalition — they may even believe you've got to reduce the immigration rate, and that taxes are too high — but once you start going too far ... chasing the One Nation voter, you start to turn off some of those voters." In comparison, Ratcliff said Accent's research showed cost of living, housing and health care were the three most important issues to voters and Labor just "hammered" on those issues the entire campaign. On Monday, Liberal senator Andrew Bragg told ABC's Radio National the Coalition didn't have enough strong policies on the economy and the party should avoid the culture wars and other less central issues in the future. "I think we have a healthy live and let live ethos in this country and we have diversity and, generally speaking, that's what most Australians are comfortable with," he said. "They don't want to see division and so I think it's very important that we focus on the economic issues and that we avoid these culture war issues at all costs." But billionaire mining magnate Gina Rinehart has blamed the "left media" for "frightening many in the Liberal Party from anything Trump and away from any Trump-like policies". "No doubt the left media will now try to claim that the Liberal loss was because the Liberal Party followed Trump and became too right!" she wrote in a post on her website. "The two simply don't add up!" At the start of the campaign, Zareh Ghazarian, a political scientist from Monash University, warned that embarking on a Trump-style campaign would be "politically dangerous" for a leader in Australia. He said Australia's political system is not reliant on energising people to vote because it's already compulsory, unlike in the US, and this means leaders have to address a wide range of issues affecting voters across capital cities, rural regional areas and in different states. "Thanks to compulsory voting ... the task for the [Australian] leader is to appeal to a really wide range [of voters] and not to speak to a very specific group of voters," he told SBS News. Visit the to access articles, podcasts and videos from SBS News, NITV and our teams covering more than 60 languages.
SBS Australia
03-05-2025
- Politics
- SBS Australia
Greens lose two Brisbane seats, with leader Adam Bandt's Melbourne seat also at risk
There have been mixed results for the Greens on election night, including the loss of two Brisbane seats. Redbridge Group director Simon Welsh is predicting the Greens will lose the seat of Griffith to Labor. It is currently held by Greens' housing and homelessness spokesperson Max Chandler-Mather. The seat of Melbourne, held by Greens leader Adam Bandt is also at risk. "It's not certain yet, it's too close to call but it doesn't look good for him," Accent Research principal Shaun Ratcliff said. In an Instagram post, Bandt said he thought the party would retain Melbourne as well as all its Senate seats. He said the party was also looking good in the seats of Ryan, Wills and Richmond. But he conceded the loss of two seats. "While our national vote has increased, the collapse in the Liberal vote means Labor will win the seats of Griffith with Liberal preferences, and Brisbane too." In Brisbane, Labor's Madonna Jarrett looks to have taken the seat from the Greens' Stephen Bates. Ratcliff said it was possible the Gaza conflict may have been a drag on Greens vote in some inner city seats, particularly in Melbourne. The Greens took a firm stance on Gaza, pledging to continue its calls for an end to the occupation of Palestinian territories and urging Israel to halt what they describe as an ongoing genocide. "The Greens definitely have gone backwards in some parts of inner city Melbourne and that is probably part of — I'm not saying that's the only cause — but it might be a contributing factor," Ratcliff said. Welsh agreed and said research leading up to polling day found voters didn't like the politicisation of the issue. "I think the Greens — for those older progressive voters — strayed into being seen as policitising an issue they thought shouldn't be dealt with in that way," he said. "There was this sense of wanting social cohesion around this issue, so that both Muslim and Jewish communities would feel safe in this country. So anything that had that sniff of one-sidedness was certainly problematic." While the Greens appeared to be attracting young voters, Welsh said they may be losing their middle-aged progressive voters. "Their vote might overall be staying static because they're picking up these younger voters, but they're not picking them up in the seats that matter," he said. "They're picking them up in the outer suburbs and being gutted by middle-aged progressive voters in the seats they're trying to contest." But the Greens do have a chance of picking up the Melbourne seat of Wills, where Samantha Ratnam is facing off against Labor's Peter Khalil. "Labor is making up ground in Wills — [but counting] could go beyond tonight too," Ratcliff said on Saturday night. The Greens are also looking good in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond, where the Greens' Mandy Nolan appears competitive against Labor's Justine Elliot; and in the Brisbane seat of Ryan. Visit the to access articles, podcasts and videos from SBS News, NITV and our teams covering more than 60 languages.
SBS Australia
03-05-2025
- Politics
- SBS Australia
Labor has won the 2025 federal election and Peter Dutton has lost his seat
Labor has won the federal election and will form government while Opposition leader Peter Dutton has lost his Queensland seat. Analysts from the Redbridge Group have predicted a Labor majority and said the party is ahead in 17 to 18 seats that are currently held by Liberal candidates. Redbridge Group director Simon Welsh said: "I really think we're looking, on this trend, at a likely Labor majority," adding that the main question was how big the majority would be. "If Labor only wins 10 of them — that's a considerable majority — we're almost talking about a landslide here if they can maintain that trend." Accent Research principal Shaun Ratcliff said they were seeing big swings against the Coalition in Brisbane metropolitan seats like Forde, Petrie and Brisbane. "So, while we might see some seats come back a bit ... as the count moves along, it's really hard to see the result, the headline result, come backwards in a big way." Almost two-thirds of primary votes and just over half of the two-party preferred votes have been tallied, Ratcliff said. Dutton, who has become the first Opposition leader to lose their seat in a federal election, conceded defeat shortly after 9.30pm (AEST). "Tonight's not the night that we wanted for the Liberal Party or ... indeed, for our country. But we worked hard every day over the course of the last three years to do our best." Dutton said: "We didn't do well enough during this campaign. That much is obvious tonight." He also said he accepted "full responsibility" for that and congratulated Albanese in his address. Dickson has been won by Labor's Ali France, who had made two previous runs in the electorate before 2025. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on ABC TV that France was a strong candidate, and that the Coalition lost the battle on health and cost of living policy "and Peter Dutton trailed away as the campaign rolled on". Ratcliff said Labor was looking at winning around 80-something seats — "a very comfortable majority". He said the Labor Party had taken the fight to what were traditionally very safe Liberal party seats, such as Berowra on Sydney's upper north shore. The seat was originally thought to be a Liberal/independent contest but now there was "a good chance it'll be a Labor/Liberal contest", he said. It showed just "what sort of trouble the Liberal party is in" across metropolitan Australia, he said. "They're in trouble in most of their seats in Melbourne and most of their seats in Sydney, and they're not getting the swings towards them they'd hope to get in the outer suburbs, and even in the regions," Ratcliff said. "We're not seeing a lot of swings to the Coalition anywhere — most of the swings we're seeing are away from them at this point." A lone bright spot for the Liberals was Opposition immigration spokesperson Dan Tehan, who looked to have seen off a challenge from independent Alex Dyson in his regional Victorian seat of Wannon, with a swing towards him of 0.6 per cent. The Liberals were set for a wipeout in Tasmania with the loss of Bass and Braddon, and faced defeat in their last seat in metropolitan Adelaide, with Sturt MP James Stevens suffering a 7.5 per cent swing against him. This is a developing story and this article will be updated. Additional reporting from the Australian Associated Press. Visit the to access articles, podcasts and videos from SBS News, NITV and our teams covering more than 60 languages.
