This deal can trigger a new India-China power play

Economic Times

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Chagos and the colonial legacy
India's stakes in Mauritius
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China's expanding footprint
Chagos, India's strategic leverage?
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The recent agreement between the UK and Mauritius , where the UK has agreed in principle to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius, marks a watershed moment in post-colonial geopolitics. While India has officially hailed the move as the completion of Mauritius's decolonisation process, the implications go far beyond historical justice or moral diplomacy. For India, this development opens new possibilities in its ongoing strategic contest with China for influence across the Indian Ocean region. On this wider maritime chessboard, the Chagos Islands may prove to be a crucial square.The Chagos Archipelago, a group of over 60 small islands in the central Indian Ocean, has been under British control since the 1960s, when it was separated from Mauritius prior to the latter's independence. The United Kingdom then leased the largest island, Diego Garcia, to the United States, which turned it into a major military base. For decades, the Chagos issue remained a sticking point in Mauritius's decolonisation narrative, and its legal claim was supported by international courts and the United Nations.India has consistently backed Mauritius's claims, both out of principle and geopolitical calculation. The transfer of sovereignty to Mauritius — albeit with the U.S. base likely to continue operating under existing arrangements — allows New Delhi a more open and potentially influential role in shaping the future security architecture of the central Indian Ocean.India's stakes in Mauritius are not new. The two countries enjoy strong diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties, underpinned by a shared history and a large Indo-Mauritian population. Nearly 70% of Mauritians are of Indian origin. Under a unique tradition, only Indian citizens, often top officials of Indian security and defence services, are appointed Mauritius' national security adviser and the head of the coast guard.India is among the top trading partners and investors in Mauritius, and it has strategically extended lines of credit, development assistance, and infrastructure investment to maintain its influence. India is building a Metro in Mauritius and also built its new Supreme Court building. Recently, the Indian government asked Indian airlines to bail out loss-hit Air Mauritius.In 2015, India built a new airstrip and other military infrastructure on Agalega Island, another Mauritian territory. While officially described as supporting civilian use and improving connectivity, the facility is widely understood to have strategic value, potentially allowing India to monitor key maritime chokepoints and naval activity in the region. This development complements India's broader Indian Ocean strategy, which includes military agreements with Seychelles, Madagascar, and Oman, and a growing naval presence in the region.Beijing, however, is not standing still. China's presence in the Indian Ocean has been growing rapidly through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), naval deployments, port development, and strategic partnerships. In 2019, China signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Mauritius — its first FTA with an African country — giving it a crucial economic and legal foothold in the island nation.In addition, China has funded infrastructure projects in Mauritius, including smart city projects and port modernization. While these developments are framed in economic terms, they potentially serve dual-use purposes, a hallmark of Chinese strategic investments. This expanding influence has naturally caused unease in New Delhi, which views China's Indian Ocean ambitions with deep suspicion.With the Chagos Islands possibly coming under the sovereignty of a friendly and closely aligned Mauritius, India gains several advantages in its strategic calculus. Control over the Chagos archipelago by Mauritius — a pro-India partner — alters the balance of influence in the central Indian Ocean. India could gain access or leverage over these islands to enhance its maritime domain awareness and patrol capabilities.While Diego Garcia will remain under US military use, Mauritius's sovereignty introduces a third actor into strategic dialogues. India, which shares robust defense ties with the US, could benefit from this triangle, facilitating intelligence sharing and operational coordination.With Beijing establishing port access and naval agreements across the Indian Ocean — including Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, and Djibouti — India needs strategic outposts of its own. The Chagos Islands, along with Agalega and other island partnerships, can serve as a counterweight. India has positioned itself as a net security provider in the IOR. Having influence over Chagos enhances its ability to counter piracy, trafficking, and other non-traditional threats, while also projecting hard power if necessary.The strategic opportunity presented by the Chagos handover is significant, but it is not without challenges. First, the degree of India's access to or use of Chagos territory will depend on the terms Mauritius establishes, particularly in the context of the existing US lease of Diego Garcia. Second, India must be cautious not to provoke unnecessary tension with China, especially in a region where both nations are vying for influence through economic as well as military means. Moreover, the local sensitivities, especially surrounding the displaced Chagossian population and ongoing human rights concerns, mean that any Indian role must be diplomatically nuanced and development-oriented.