Tasmania's AFL dreams on knife's edge as premier threatens early election
Tasmania's premier has vowed to seek a fresh election if he loses a no-confidence motion on Thursday, as the island state's political chaos leaves the future of the AFL's newest club in peril.
Jeremy Rockliff was the subject of a gruelling no-confidence debate on Wednesday, tabled by Labor Opposition Leader Dean Winter on Tuesday, which is continuing into Thursday morning.
Convention dictates Rockliff resign and a new premier be chosen if the motion passes.
But before parliament began on Thursday, he reiterated his vow to fight until his last breath.
'I cannot let Mr Winter's selfish grab for power destroy what we have built over the course of the last decade,' Rockliff told reporters.
'The only job Mr Winter is interested in is mine, and I am not going anywhere. Today if Mr Winter's divisive and destructive motion is passed, I will be going to the lieutenant-governor and seeking an election.'
'This will be an election that Tasmanians don't want, and Tasmanians cannot afford – be that on Mr Winter's head.'
Tasmania went to the polls in March 2024, when the Liberals won just 14 of 35 seats but earned enough support from the crossbench to form government.
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Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance. Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term. The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded. The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign. However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign. The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff. "It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP. "It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen. "I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm." Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority. He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election. "Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said. Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour". "They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast. Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media. AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election. Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure. "The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said. Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation. "They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC. "This is nuts that we're going to an election." Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy. He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident. "Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media. After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters. "I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said. "Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it." Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance. Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term. The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded. The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign. However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign. The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff. "It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP. "It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen. "I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm." Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority. He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election. "Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said. Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour". "They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast. Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media. AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election. Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure. "The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said. Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation. "They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC. "This is nuts that we're going to an election." Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy. He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident. "Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media. After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters. "I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said. "Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it." Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance. Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term. The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded. The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign. However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign. The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff. "It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP. "It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen. "I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm." Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority. He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election. "Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said. Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour". "They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast. Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media. AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election. Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure. "The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said. Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation. "They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC. "This is nuts that we're going to an election." Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy. He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident. "Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media. After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters. "I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said. "Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it." Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance. Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term. The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded. The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign. However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign. The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff. "It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP. "It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen. "I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm." Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority. He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election. "Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said. Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour". "They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast. Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media. AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election. Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure. "The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said. Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation. "They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC. "This is nuts that we're going to an election." Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy. He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident. "Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media. After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters. "I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said. "Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it."
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Former Australia cricket captain Tim Paine has lashed Tasmania as "self-sabotaging", admitting he's embarrassed by the political upheaval that threatens to kill off the island's planned AFL team. The Tasmania Devils are at risk of extinction before they have even played a game, after Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff on Thursday lost a no-confidence motion. It means Tasmanians are set to return to the polls, likely delaying construction of a new stadium at Macquarie Point in Hobart. The proposed 23,000-seat roofed venue, which is now slated to cost $945 million, is a condition of the Devils entering the AFL in 2028. Devils chief executive Brendon Gale and chairman Grant O'Brien fear an early election would delay the stadium project and put the club's licence at serious risk. The saga has prompted an emotional response from Devils staff, politicians and public figures this week. "It is staggering that we do this to ourselves, we are self-sabotaging state," Paine said on SEN radio. "I'm as proud as anyone to be a Tasmanian but at times it is embarrassing. "I was with (Brisbane Lions coach) Chris Fagan the last few days at the football club, everyone you speak to, they ask if it's gonna happen. "Even Fages, a proud Tasmanian, you could see in his face and the look in his eye, he was shocked that once again we have gone out of our way to stuff something up that would be great for our state. "It's a doomsday scenario, but what if the AFL revokes the licence?" The former Test wicketkeeper felt Tasmania would continue to be the butt of jokes if it can't deliver an AFL team. "Tassie has for a long time been the laughing stock for the other states because of our inability to get stuff done," Paine said. "When I was playing cricket people would say, 'Oh you're heading back to 'Slowbart', nothing ever happens'. "It's the same as it was 10 years ago, and we keep proving people right. "It's embarrassing when you're involved in national or international sports and businesses and you go to carnivals or Tests and people just continually shit-can us. "They talk down to us and we continually prove them right." Former Australia cricket captain Tim Paine has lashed Tasmania as "self-sabotaging", admitting he's embarrassed by the political upheaval that threatens to kill off the island's planned AFL team. The Tasmania Devils are at risk of extinction before they have even played a game, after Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff on Thursday lost a no-confidence motion. It means Tasmanians are set to return to the polls, likely delaying construction of a new stadium at Macquarie Point in Hobart. The proposed 23,000-seat roofed venue, which is now slated to cost $945 million, is a condition of the Devils entering the AFL in 2028. Devils chief executive Brendon Gale and chairman Grant O'Brien fear an early election would delay the stadium project and put the club's licence at serious risk. The saga has prompted an emotional response from Devils staff, politicians and public figures this week. "It is staggering that we do this to ourselves, we are self-sabotaging state," Paine said on SEN radio. "I'm as proud as anyone to be a Tasmanian but at times it is embarrassing. "I was with (Brisbane Lions coach) Chris Fagan the last few days at the football club, everyone you speak to, they ask if it's gonna happen. "Even Fages, a proud Tasmanian, you could see in his face and the look in his eye, he was shocked that once again we have gone out of our way to stuff something up that would be great for our state. "It's a doomsday scenario, but what if the AFL revokes the licence?" The former Test wicketkeeper felt Tasmania would continue to be the butt of jokes if it can't deliver an AFL team. "Tassie has for a long time been the laughing stock for the other states because of our inability to get stuff done," Paine said. "When I was playing cricket people would say, 'Oh you're heading back to 'Slowbart', nothing ever happens'. "It's the same as it was 10 years ago, and we keep proving people right. "It's embarrassing when you're involved in national or international sports and businesses and you go to carnivals or Tests and people just continually shit-can us. "They talk down to us and we continually prove them right." Former Australia cricket captain Tim Paine has lashed Tasmania as "self-sabotaging", admitting he's embarrassed by the political upheaval that threatens to kill off the island's planned AFL team. The Tasmania Devils are at risk of extinction before they have even played a game, after Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff on Thursday lost a no-confidence motion. It means Tasmanians are set to return to the polls, likely delaying construction of a new stadium at Macquarie Point in Hobart. The proposed 23,000-seat roofed venue, which is now slated to cost $945 million, is a condition of the Devils entering the AFL in 2028. Devils chief executive Brendon Gale and chairman Grant O'Brien fear an early election would delay the stadium project and put the club's licence at serious risk. The saga has prompted an emotional response from Devils staff, politicians and public figures this week. "It is staggering that we do this to ourselves, we are self-sabotaging state," Paine said on SEN radio. "I'm as proud as anyone to be a Tasmanian but at times it is embarrassing. "I was with (Brisbane Lions coach) Chris Fagan the last few days at the football club, everyone you speak to, they ask if it's gonna happen. "Even Fages, a proud Tasmanian, you could see in his face and the look in his eye, he was shocked that once again we have gone out of our way to stuff something up that would be great for our state. "It's a doomsday scenario, but what if the AFL revokes the licence?" The former Test wicketkeeper felt Tasmania would continue to be the butt of jokes if it can't deliver an AFL team. "Tassie has for a long time been the laughing stock for the other states because of our inability to get stuff done," Paine said. "When I was playing cricket people would say, 'Oh you're heading back to 'Slowbart', nothing ever happens'. "It's the same as it was 10 years ago, and we keep proving people right. "It's embarrassing when you're involved in national or international sports and businesses and you go to carnivals or Tests and people just continually shit-can us. "They talk down to us and we continually prove them right."
