Fantasy Football: 2025 rookie QBs could ultimately pay dividends, but don't expect an immediate impact

Yahoo

2 days ago

With a chance to further digest the results of the NFL Draft, it felt like a good time to dig into Pro Football Reference and see just how well the key positions have performed as rookies in the fantasy era. The series started with tight ends, and now we're onto the quarterbacks (we'll also be covering the RBs and WRs).
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Daniels helps history repeat itself
All through the storybook Washington Commanders season last year, I couldn't help but think, I've seen this movie before.
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Flash back to 2012. Washington's team feels shipwrecked, coming off a 5-11 season. The team drafts dual-threat quarterback Robert Griffin III at No. 2 overall, fresh off a Heisman Trophy campaign. The quarterback is an instant star, the team improves by five games and makes the playoffs. Hope is restored in DC.
And now we return to 2024. Washington's team feels shipwrecked, coming off a 4-13 season. The team drafts dual-threat quarterback Jayden Daniels at No. 2 overall, fresh off a Heisman Trophy win. The quarterback is an instant star, the team improves by eight games and makes the playoffs. Hope is restored in DC.
Daniels just missed being the highest-scoring fantasy rookie quarterback of all time. If we go by raw score, Cam Newton edges him by 13.5 points. If we shift to points per game, Deshaun Watson, Newton, Justin Herbert and Griffin are slightly above Daniels. None of these exact rankings matter too much, of course. The key thing is that Daniels was extremely affordable in last year's draft season, and he smashed his ADP.
2024 QB class will be one to remember
Daniels was far from the only rookie difference-maker. The 2024 class put its thumbprint all over the all-time rookie ledger. Bo Nix had the fifth-best rookie QB season of all time, scoring over 300 points, and Caleb Williams landed at No. 12 overall. Drake Maye only made 12 starts in New England and was surrounded by shaky offensive teammates, but nonetheless cobbled together 187.1 fantasy points, which is 32nd all time.
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The stories are still unwritten for Michael Penix Jr. (late-season cameo, 105 pass attempts) and J.J. McCarthy (a knee injury cost him the entire season). But we'll be talking about the 2024 quarterback draft for years to come.
The top of the historical QB rookie leaderboard is dominated by rushing quarterbacks. The top 11 on the list averaged 456.9 yards and 5.8 rushing touchdowns in their debut seasons. Nobody scored less than three times. (Heck, if you want to spin the up-and-down season Williams had, note he scored the most first-year QB points ever from a quarterback who didn't have a rushing score.)
So when we're projecting the freshmen QBs, we need to consider legs as well as arms.
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[2025 Fantasy Draft Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers]
What will 2025 rookie QBs offer?
After seeing six quarterbacks taken in the first round last year, we watched a different shape to the draft this time around. Although QB Cam Ward was the first overall pick, only one other quarterback was selected in the first round. And heck, to a large degree the draft was defined by someone who fell significantly — Shedeur Sanders, at one point seen as a likely early pick, tumbled all the way down to the fifth round. He wasn't even the first quarterback Cleveland selected.
So this year's rookie QB debates won't be as long or as spirited. There's less fantasy turf at stake.
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Ward is unlikely to have a legendary debut like Newton or Daniels or Griffin. Ward is athletic and resourceful as an occasional runner, but he's not considered a true dual-threat quarterback. He finished with a modest 406 yards rushing over three years with Washington State and Miami, though he did have 17 touchdowns. (Keep in mind, sacks are subtracted from rushing yards in college; they are handled separately in the NFL.)
It could take time for Tennessee to upgrade its receiver room. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett are at the top of the depth chart; Ridley enters his age-31 season and Lockett steps into his age-33 campaign. Maybe rookie Chimere Dike will turn into something eventually, but he was merely a fourth-round pick in April.
If Ward could approach what Maye did in New England last season (13.4 points per game), I'd mark it as a win.
Jaxson Dart was the other first-round pick, and his rushing resume at Ole Miss was interesting (1,498 yards over three years). But Dart won't be the opening-day starter for the Giants — Russell Wilson is set there — and New York also has Jameis Winston hanging around. Dart's fantasy upside is probably something we'll discuss midseason; he's not going to be drafted in most season-long formats.
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The other rookie quarterback likely to be starting in Week 1 is Tyler Shough of the Saints. New Orleans drafted Shough with the understanding that Derek Carr likely wouldn't be available — since the draft, Carr has retired. With Shough turning 26 in September — he was in college for seven years — he's the type of player you select thinking short term, not long term. The future is now.
Assuming Shough can beat out Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, he steps into a New Orleans huddle that has some promise. Alvin Kamara is still an effective back, and when healthy, receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed can threaten every part of the field. Veteran Brandin Cooks was added in a depth move, coming back to New Orleans after leaving nine years ago.
Shough was a pocket passer in college, so there's little rushing upside here. But maybe he can make some Bayou magic from the pocket.
Second-round picks have rarely made a fantasy impact, but it's not impossible. Andy Dalton's the only Round 2 quarterback to score over 200 points in his rookie season. Five other Round 2 QBs have gone for 100 or more points in their debut lap, tracking just the fantasy era: Geno Smith, Carr, DeShone Kizer, Jalen Hurts and Will Levis. A handful of other intriguing Round 2 picks — Drew Brees, Jimmy Garoppolo, Colin Kaepernick — saw limited playing time as rookies.
Obviously no one is expecting Shough to become another Brees or Hurts. If he could approach what Smith or Dalton were able to do, the Saints surely would be thrilled.